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It’s a race to 50.
With the AFL season rapidly closing in on what is set to be a thrilling conclusion to the home-and-away rounds, a half-century of premiership points would, it appears, be the magic number to secure a September berth.
There are no guarantees, of course, but with four teams in the finals mix – Geelong, Carlton, Richmond and Sydney – having had draws, and the season extended by a week due to Gather Round, the usual 12 wins required to, in most seasons, make the eight just doesn’t seem enough.
So 50 it is – that’s 12 wins for the Cats, Blues, Tigers and Swans, and 13 (or a draw) for everyone else.
Here’s how your team can navigate the final six weeks of the home-and-away season and chart a path into the eight – and maybe even higher – or if they’re already locked into September, how they can book a top-four berth or even a home qualifying final in the run home.
15-2, 60 points, 139%
Run home: Port Adelaide (interstate), Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Brisbane, Essendon
Top four teams to play: Port Adelaide (I)
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn
If there was any doubt, the Magpies confirmed their spot in September with a crushing win over Fremantle – but they’re aiming quite a bit higher than that.
The Magpies are a game and percentage clear on top, thanks to Port Adelaide’s loss to Carlton, meaning their blockbuster clash with the second-placed Power this weekend is no longer a minor premiership play-off. But a contender on their home patch is no easy assignment, and one of a number of tricky games the Pies must navigate in their run home.
The Pies would need to lose three of their last six to miss out on the top two and a home qualifying final, which would also require at least five wins from the Power and a clean run (and percentage boost) for the third-placed Brisbane. It’s not impossible, given they also play an in-form Carlton, Geelong, and a date with the Lions themselves at Marvel Stadium in Round 23.
Collingwood, though, are flag favourites for a reason, are at worst an even-money chance in every game (even the Power on the road), and with a chance to be two games and percentage clear on top in a week’s time. It would take a sizeable drop off for them to give up the McClelland Trophy, never mind a top-two berth.
Run Home prediction: 5 wins, 1 loss
Result: 20-3, 80 points, 1st
Josh Daicos celebrates a goal with Scott Pendlebury. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
14-3, 56 points, 114.7%
Run home: Collingwood, Adelaide, Geelong (I), GWS, Fremantle (I), Richmond
Top four teams to play: Collingwood
Bottom three teams to play: Nil
The Power’s winning streak was bound to end at some point, but just when a precious top-two finish seemed secured, a loss to Carlton – and significant reduction to their percentage – has muddied the waters somewhat.
Their minor premiership chances now rest on knocking over Collingwood this weekend, and most likely the Pies losing one more game at least in the run home – while they themselves are just two and three wins ahead of the third-placed Brisbane and fourth-placed Melbourne respectively.
With a tough run home featuring Geelong in Geelong and a second Showdown along with the Magpies bout, and no softer kills against any of the clear bottom three in Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast, it’s far from locked in just yet: but Port still have the inside running on second spot, and a lot would need to go wrong to give it up.
Run Home prediction: 5 wins, 1 loss
Result: 19-4, 76 points, 2nd
12-5, 48 points, 130.4%
Run home: Geelong, Gold Coast, Fremantle (I), Adelaide, Collingwood (I), St Kilda
Top four teams to play: Collingwood I)
Bottom three teams to play: Nil
With seven minutes to go at the MCG on Friday night, Brisbane were two games and percentage clear inside the top three, and breathing down Port Adelaide’s neck.
Four goals and a heartbreaking one-point defeat later, the Lions are a little shaky. They’d need to lose three of their final six in the run home, plus have Geelong win out from fifth, to drop top four, and only two of those games – the Cats themselves this week and Collingwood in Round 23 – will see them start as anything other than warm favourites. But their third spot is definitely up for grabs, with their Round 18 conquerors Melbourne blessed with a dream fixture.
The Lions must now tread lightly, because even a single loss could see the Demons leapfrog them on percentage. How costly Friday night’s fadeout will prove remains to be seen.
Run Home prediction: 5 wins, 1 loss
Result: 17-6, 68 points, 4th
11-6, 44 points, 125.1%
Run home: Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney (I)
Top four teams to play: Nil
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn, North Melbourne
The Demons’ thrilling come-from-behind win over Brisbane might be just the start of a serious premiership surge from the 2021 champions.
No team in the race for finals has a better run home than the Dees, with no games against another side currently in the eight – the tenth-placed Carlton their highest opponent from here – while clashes with bottom-three sides Hawthorn and North Melbourne give them a chance to address the five per cent gap between them and Brisbane.
They’re three wins behind Port Adelaide in second, which might prove an insurmountable gap unless the Power fade badly – but with five games in Melbourne and their only trip interstate a manageable one to face Sydney, third is well and truly on the cards, plus the chance to hit the finals in top form with a seven-game winning streak.
Run Home prediction: 6 wins, 0 losses
Result: 17-6, 68 points, 3rd
Jake Melksham celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
9-1-7, 38 points, 122.9%
Run home: Brisbane (I), Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood*, St Kilda*, Western Bulldogs
*denotes playing in Victoria but not in Geelong
Top four teams to play: Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane (I)
Bottom three teams to play: Nil
Chris Scott claims his team are ‘the danger’ from outside the established top four, and he’ll certainly get his chance to prove that point over the next six weeks.
With only two premiership points and considerable percentage keeping them in the eight amid the massive logjam between fifth and 11th, the Cats could hardly have things tougher in the next month in particular, with a road trip to face Brisbane at their Gabba fortress, plus clashes with both the top two in Collingwood and Port Adelaide
Even winning two of those three would be a remarkable effort, and while Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs will need to beat them at their GMHBA Stadium fortress, a Round 23 clash with a flagging St Kilda at Marvel Stadium is also far from an easy win.
To the Cats’ advantage is their huge percentage, which effectively acts as an extra win over their fellow draw teams Carlton, Richmond and Sydney; they probably only need to halve their remaining games, three at least of which they’ll start as favourites, to make it into the eight. Win four, and that draw might just jump them all the way up to fifth. But making up the two-win gap to fourth-placed Melbourne, who have a much easier draw, looms as all but impossible.
Run Home prediction: 4 wins, 2 losses
Result: 13-1-9, 54 points, 5th
9-8, 36 points, 104.3%
Run home: North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane (I)
Top four teams to play: Brisbane (I)
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn, North Melbourne
The good news? St Kilda’s next two games, against bottom-three teams in the Hawks and Kangaroos, gives them the opportunity they desperately need to turn their spluttering season around and shore up their place in the eight.
The bad news? They lost to the 16th-placed Hawks earlier this year and are vulnerable enough for it to happen again – and even if they do get through the next fortnight unscathed, their final month will be a bigger challenge.
The Saints are in a similar boat percentage-wise to the Western Bulldogs, Essendon and GWS, but only four wins from their last six will get them past that 50-point threshold. That means even if the Roos and Hawks are conquered, they’ll need to halve games against an in-form Carlton, a Richmond outfit that bested them recently, the surging Geelong, and worst of all, Brisbane in Brisbane.
Forget giving them a buffer – it’s almost season over if the Saints lose either of their next two; and even then, they’ll need to radically turn things around to avoid slumping out of the eight late for the second straight season.
Run Home prediction: 3 wins, 3 losses
Result: 12-11, 48 points, 9th
9-8, 36 points, 103.5%
Run home: Essendon, GWS, Richmond, Hawthorn (I), West Coast, Geelong (I)
Top four teams to play: Nil
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn (I), West Coast
Before we start – it’s not ‘interstate’ per se, but I’m counting playing Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in that category, because frankly it might as well be.
And that final-round trip down the road where the Bulldogs haven’t won since 2003 casts its pall over their other five remaining games, and all but guarantees they’ll need to have their finals spot sewn up by then.
The Dogs still have destiny in their own hands: their next three games are all eight-point affairs where winning will also deprive rivals Essendon, GWS and Richmond precious, precious premiership points. Win three, and a home elimination final is on the cards; win two, and September is still on track; win one, and it gets very dicey.
The Tigers at Marvel Stadium and the Giants in Ballarat are two handy advantages the Dogs’ way, but even so, you’d imagine they’d take two wins from those three tough games, given their patchy recent form.
Even then, while West Coast *should* be an easy kill in Round 23, facing Hawthorn in Tasmania the round prior is the sort of banana-skin game that could well cost a team finals this year. Will the Dogs come to rue an unlucky fixture that has drawn them against two fellow Victorian teams in bona fide away games, plus an extra interstate trip in Gather Round to face Port Adelaide?
Run Home prediction: 4 wins, 2 losses
Result: 13-10, 52 points, 7th
Anthony Scott of the Bulldogs celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images )
9-8, 36 points, 101.2%
Run home: Western Bulldogs, Sydney, West Coast, North Melbourne, GWS (I), Collingwood
Top four teams to play: Collingwood
Bottom three teams to play: North Melbourne, West Coast
Getting thrashed by Geelong on the weekend hasn’t wrecked the Bombers’ September dream, but with their percentage shredded, it has made it tougher.
But with upcoming matches against the Kangaroos and Eagles, both at Marvel Stadium, they’ve got plenty of time to make it up – and while it’s unlikely, given the amount of draws surrounding them, that percentage will decide it, you can’t rule it out.
Apart from that, the Bombers’ fixture is pretty reasonably balanced: they will start comfortable favourites against Sydney at home, while even Collingwood in the final round is winnable – they’ve come agonisingly close in their last two matches against the Pies, the latest Anzac Day earlier this year.
Ultimately, they’ll probably just need to win one of their two games against the teams on either side of them – the Bulldogs this week, and GWS on the road in Round 23, to reach September, barring a calamitous misstep along the way (which you can never rule out with the Bombers).
Do that, and a shock finals berth is well within reach; smash one or both of the Eagles and Roos, and a home final is on the cards too.
Run Home prediction: 4 wins, 2 losses
Result: 13-10, 52 points, 6th
9-8, 36 points, 99.4%
Run home: Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs (I), Sydney, Port Adelaide (I), Essendon, Carlton (I)
Top four teams to play: Port Adelaide (I)
Bottom three teams to play: Nil
The Giants’ stirring win over Adelaide on the weekend, their fourth in succession, has vaulted them right back into the finals mix – and more than any other team, their run home is going to be fascinating to watch.
Of their last six, only Port Adelaide in Adelaide looms as beyond their reach – though after their success at the same venue on the weekend, good luck telling them that. While the negative is a lack of sure thing wins against the bottom three (with the greatest of respect to Hawthorn, you’d probably rather be playing them than even Fremantle in 15th, surely?), the advantage is that it gives the Giants chance after chance to deal their finals rivals hammer blows.
In their next three weeks, they can just about end the seasons of Gold Coast and Sydney on their own match, while in the middle there’s a vulnerable Western Bulldogs outfit that they came close to pipping earlier this year even without talisman Toby Greene.
Run the score on those games, and their final fortnight is very much winnable as well – though a trip to Docklands to face Carlton now looms as far less tasty than it did a few weeks back.
The Giants are, along with the Blues, the form team of this finals run – if they can beat the Dogs in particular in a fortnight, and avoid slip-ups elsewhere, they’ll head to the Adelaide Oval in Round 22 on a seven-game winning streak. With that kind of momentum, could anyone stop them?
Run Home prediction: 3 wins, 3 losses
Result: 12-11, 52 points, 10th
8-1-8, 34 points, 111.4%
Run home: West Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne, Gold Coast (I), GWS
Top four teams to play: Collingwood
Bottom three teams to play: West Coast
The toast of the footy world at the moment, the Blues have what should be an easy kill against West Coast at home this weekend, before a final five weeks that will force them to earn the breakthrough September berth they desperately covet.
The bad news is that the Eagles game is the last outing against a significantly weaker opponent, with even Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium a challenge for a team that doesn’t fare well in the north.
Add to that matches against top-four teams in Collingwood and St Kilda, and their already precarious win-loss position, and the Blues are closer to the last-chance saloon than perhaps even they realise – though the draw gives them a potentially handy buffer over teams like the Giants, Bombers and Crows, while their percentage separates them from Richmond.
With all that said, Carlton are playing scintillating footy at the moment, and their Friday night blockbuster with the Pies in a fortnight’s time is going to be must-watch.
It’s not inconceivable that they could not only barge their way into the eight, but do so with a ten-game winning streak that would make them the biggest premiership dark horse going around – plus a ladder spot as high as fifth.
Run Home prediction: 4 wins, 2 losses
Result: 12-1-10, 50 points, 8th
8-1-8, 34 points, 99.8%
Run home: Hawthorn, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide (I)
Top four teams to play: Port Adelaide (I), Melbourne
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn, North Melbourne
Remember when Damien Hardwick famously said the Tigers hate playing at Marvel Stadium? Well, we’re about to find out if Andrew McQualter feels the same way.
Richmond have two eight-point games in the run home, against the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, at that very venue: given they have a draw and five losses there from their last six, with their most recent victory back in May 2021, they’ll need to overcome their Docklands hoodoo to crash into the eight.
The Tigers missing a chance for a percentage boost against West Coast is pretty unlikely to end up mattering, given the only team for whom percentage is likely to be an issue for them, Carlton, would have had a chance to re-establish a buffer against the Eagles this weekend anyway.
Regardless, the equation for the Tigers is identical to that of the Blues: get to 50 points. Do that, and you’d suggest one of the Saints and Dogs will be among their list of victims in the run home, knocking out a rival at the same time as securing valuable points.
Like the Dogs, they’ll need to secure their finals spot before the last round, because they won’t want their hopes to be resting on beating Port Adelaide in Adelaide.
Run Home prediction: 2 wins, 4 losses
Result: 10-1-11, 42 points, 12th
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
8-9, 32 points, 114.8%
Run home: Melbourne (I), Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane (I), Sydney, West Coast (I)
Top four teams to play: Port Adelaide, Melbourne (I), Brisbane (I)
Bottom three teams to play: West Coast (I)
Oh, dear.
If you didn’t already think Adelaide’s last-quarter capitulation to lose at home to GWS was costly, then a glimpse at their coming fixture is all you’ll need to confirm it.
Only Geelong have an equal amount of games against the top four as the Crows’ three in the run home – and Matthew Nicks’ men have an extra disadvantage of needing to leave the state for two of them. And the third is against Port Adelaide in the year’s second Showdown, a neutral match against an in-form rival, even if they did knock them over earlier in the year.
The amount of draws around them substantially weakens the advantage the Crows’ strong percentage gives them, too: they’ll probably need to win five of their last six to make finals from here. That means another Showdown victory, plus defying their poor record on the road to knock over either Melbourne this week or Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 22. All without a single slip-up elsewhere.
Yeah. It’s going to be tough.
Run Home prediction: 3 wins, 3 losses
Result: 11-12, 44 points, 11th
8-9, 32 points, 94.6%
Run home: GWS (I), Brisbane, Adelaide (I), Sydney (I), Carlton, North Melbourne (I)
Top four teams to play: Brisbane
Bottom three teams to play: North Melbourne (I)
They’re a game and a slight amount of percentage out of the finals – but most people gave up on the Suns being a realistic September chance when Stuart Dew was sacked, or maybe even when they were flogged by Carlton a month ago.
Without the percentage advantage of Adelaide to give them a chance of finals with 12 wins, the Suns will need five from six for the unlikeliest of runs into the eight. And they’re unlikely to start as favourites again until Round 24, when they face North Melbourne, by which point it will almost certainly be too late.
GWS, Adelaide and Sydney might be beatable at home, but it’s going to be tough to handle them at their home grounds. And that’s the easy bit: there’s also a resurgent Carlton, plus another QClash against Brisbane, a match they haven’t won since 2018.
Even winning one of those five games, and wrecking another team’s September dream, might be about all the Suns can hope for. Prove me wrong, Gold Coast! Prove me wrong.
Run Home prediction: 1 win, 5 losses
Result: 9-14, 36 points, 14th
7-1-9, 30 points, 110.3%
Run home: Fremantle (I), Essendon (I), GWS, Gold Coast, Adelaide (I), Melbourne
Top four teams to play: Melbourne
Bottom three teams to play: Nil
Thanks to both their draw and good percentage, five wins from six will probably get Sydney, against all odds, into the finals. Probably.
But that means precious little margin for error, and while their run home is almost entirely fellow top-eight rivals, they’ll need to become serious road warriors to reach September.
Four of their last six games are away from the SCG, and for three of them, they’ll need to travel interstate – a problem, considering they’re 2-5 in 2023 against opponents in a genuine away game (this is deliberately excluding beating Richmond in Gather Round).
Fremantle in Perth, Essendon at Docklands and even Adelaide in Adelaide aren’t beyond the realms of possibility if the Swans can play like they did to best the Western Bulldogs and draw with Geelong; in between, though, losing to Richmond at the MCG showed they’re still struggling away from home.
You never say never with the Swans, but coming from so far back, this task might well be beyond them.
Run Home prediction: 1 win, 5 losses
Result: 8-1-14, 34 points, 15th
syd
Tom Papley celebrates a goal. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
7-10, 28 points, 89.3%
Run home: Sydney, Geelong (I), Brisbane, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn (I)
Top four teams to play: Port Adelaide, Brisbane
Bottom three teams to play: Hawthorn (I)
Fremantle’s loss to Collingwood on the weekend makes things simple for them. Win every match of their last six, and they’ll most likely scrape into finals. Lose even once, and it’s game over.
That means they’ll need to get another Derby win over a West Coast outfit sure to be up for the fight, edge two tough contests against Sydney at home and then Hawthorn at the MCG, turn Optus Stadium into a fortress again to knock over Port Adelaide and Brisbane, and toughest of all, repeat their 2022 storming of the Cattery against Geelong.
All while knowing they’re one bad performance away from oblivion.
It doesn’t look good, does it?
Run Home prediction: 3 wins, 3 losses
Result: 10-13, 40 points, 13th
Qualifying Final: Collingwood vs Brisbane
Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
Elimination Final: Geelong vs Carlton
Elimination Final: Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
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