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Amid the fierce, fervid and frenzied debate around Australia’s team selections for Wednesday’s fourth Ashes Test, a switch in tactics will arguably be more important in the final wash-up than the make-up of the final XI.
The tourists have the stronger overall squad and whether they persist with David Warner, or replace Mitchell Marsh with Cameron Green or rejig their bowling attack with Josh Hazlewood, the Ashes will be in their possession again if they avoid a few of the mistakes from last week’s loss in Headingley.
Australia are unlikely to get too funky with their team changes anyway if the mounting body of work of the current selection panel is anything to go by.
Tactically it is not a time to panic either but adjustments need to be made after the injection of Mark Wood into the series infused England’s attack with sorely needed pace, diversity and good old-fashioned fear factor.
When it comes to Australia’s attack, Hazlewood is almost certain to replace the uncharacteristically ineffective Scott Boland while young spinner Todd Murphy is set to be retained with Green or Marsh, unlikely to be both, providing a fourth pace option as the all-rounder.
Australia’s Mitchell Starc appeals successfully for the wicket of England’s Ben Stokes. (Photo by Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)
You can have all the computer analysts this side of Silicon Valley punching in the data but it should be obvious to the Australian attack that the England skipper doesn’t mind the pull shot.
In his second innings 155 at Lord’s and 80 in the opening dig at Leeds, the left-hander launched a combined 14 sixes over the leg-side boundary. Zero on the off side.
Stokes stroked seven of his nine fours to the leg-side boundary in the second Test and three of his six (all through the vacant slips cordon) at Headingley.
The runs dried up just when Stokes looked like he was going to get England home at the home of cricket when the Aussies speared the ball well outside off, away from his hitting zone.
It’s nowhere near as simple as that when it comes to plotting Stokes’ dismissal but one thing’s for sure – digging it into his ribs usually ends with the Dukes ball disappearing over the boundary.
The modern philosophy for Test teams on wickets outside the subcontinent is to go “nose and toes” for tailenders but it can’t just be five bouncers an over with one ball aimed at the stumps.
Wood is not the worst tailender in the world but there’s no way he should be able to blast a combined 40 runs off 14 deliveries like he did in the third Test across his two innings, the second one unbeaten to guide England home.
The Bazballer assumed a baseballer’s stance, ready to swing for the bleachers with a horizontal blade and more often than not connected to the delight of the fans, even the ones who were peppered with the ball as it sailed into the stands.
There is no surprise factor for a tailender if the vast majority of deliveries are aimed at their armpits or higher. Wood was barely worrying about protecting his stumps as he moved closer to the square-leg umpire with each bouncer and when Mitchell Starc slipped in an attempted yorker at the stumps, it was not full enough and England’s cult hero jammed down on a cover drive to the boundary.
And when you are going short to the tail, more catchers are needed close to the bat than the keeper, a short leg and a solitary fielder at cover.
Pat Cummins loves a deep point to stem the flow of runs and to be fair to him, it has worked a few times in the first few Tests when England’s more impatient batters have played rash shots because potential boundaries were being turned into singles by the sweeper in the deep.
But when a new batter is at the crease, is it really necessary to have someone stationed on the fence on the off side when there is usually an extra body in the deep at square leg along with the standard fine leg fielder.
Too often we have seen England batters – both top order and tailenders – get off the mark or into the flow of their innings with an easily taken single to the point region.
Mark Taylor knows better than most how to get out of a lengthy batting slump in an Ashes tour when your spot as a left-handed opener in the team is in jeopardy.
In commentary during the last Test the former Australian captain said Warner could lessen his chances of constantly nicking off to Stuart Broad and his around-the-wicket cohort by adjusting his aim.
Taylor said if Warner sets his sights on hitting as many full deliveries as possible to mid-off instead of mid-on, it would present a much wider bat face to a right-armed bowler spearing the ball in from that angle before moving it away to slip.
The off-cutter (leg-cutter to a leftie) is Broad’s natural variation to the outswinger (inswinger to Warner) and it’s contributed to his haul of 17 dismissals against the 36-year-old Australian.
Taylor said batters in his era rarely faced around-the-wicket bowling so left-handers needed to be strong off their pads through mid-on and mid-wicket but aiming that way nowadays can be a weakness.
Spinners can be fragile beasts and need to be handled with care by captains to get the best out of them.
Cummins missed a trick by not introducing Murphy into the attack earlier in the second innings at Leeds, waiting until England were close to their target before rolling the dice with a second over after giving him one before lunch.
Manchester’s wicket has a reputation of being the most favourable for spinners in England and Murphy proved in the harshest initiation possible in India that he can cut the mustard at Test level so if Cummins shows faith in him at Old Trafford, it should be rewarded.
It’d be a surprise if this hasn’t been spoken about in the Australian sheds but when Wood is pinging the ball in at over 150km/h, it’s time to shorten the backlifts.
He’ll only bowl short spells so for tailenders in particular, they need to be able to wear a few bruises.
For all his antics, Broad played one of the bravest knocks of the 2023 series in the second innings at Lord’s when he copped several blows on the body as the Aussie quicks honed in on his weakness against the short ball.
Despite having little clue on how to play a defensive shot to the short ball, he stuck around with Stokes for a 108-run partnership which nearly stole the result from Australia’s grasp.
Australia batter Mitchell Marsh celebrates his century. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Cummins tends to use his all-rounder as almost an afterthought.
He used Marsh early but not enough in the third Test – three overs as first change but no more despite taking a wicket in the first innings and then six more in the second dig even though he again sent Zak Crawley packing.
With Green he tends to only throw him the ball after all four frontline bowlers have had a trundle, including the spinner, with Travis Head even getting to roll his arm over before the towering Western Australian at Lord’s.
Ben Duckett has stepped up to help his skipper and Joe Root in England’s batting unit with 237 runs at 39.5 to be the fourth leading run-getter in the series behind Khawaja’s 356, Stokes (309) and Travis Head (266).
Harry Brook is maturing on the run as well with his match-winning 75 in the Headingley run-chase lifting his Ashes tally to 210 at 35.
Both are prone to extravagant shots if there are a few too many dot balls for their liking.
Duckett can’t help but play at everything and has been suspect to balls pitched just short of a length outside off stump while Brook has thrown his wicket away twice when well set.
If he can maintain the judicious shot display of the final day at Leeds, he could indeed turn out to be England’s next long-term middle-order star as Root enters the twilight of his career.
Away movement brings Crawley undone.
Boland nicked him off twice in the series opener with leg cutters and Marsh did the same last week with off swing taking the outside edge.
He’s much more likely to let a ball go than his opening partner but he still likes to feel willow on leather more often than he should as an opener in English conditions.
Whether it’s a carry-over effect from his golf-addled broken leg but Jonny Bairstow has been sluggish with his footwork.
He’s not moving his feet to the pitch of wide deliveries in particular and Starc had him caught in the slips and dragging on to get him both innings at Headingley as the Yorkshireman swung wildly early in each innings.
Expect Starc to give him the old three-card trick of a few deliveries tight on off stump and then a wide one to see if the ploy works again in Manchester.
Lost among all the Broad vs Warner historical stats is the fact that Cummins now has dismissed Root 11 times in 17 Tests.
At a wicket every 1.54 Tests, that’s actually a better strike rate than Broad’s 1.7 after getting Warner on 17 occasions in 29 matches.
He has knocked Root over three times this series, including both innings at Headingley.
Cummins gave himself a breather soon after Root came out to bat in the fourth-innings run-chase but then struck with the fourth delivery he sent his way when he brought himself back on.