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Have we crossed the bridge into Believeland yet? Things certainly seem pointing that way after some seriously tough times, but there are a few factors to consider before assuming the sort of confidence normally associated with an All Black World Cup campaign.
While they were awfully impressive in their 35-20 win over the Springboks in Auckland, it could be argued that the South Africans were just plain awful – at least for the first 20 minutes when the only time the Boks touched the ball was when it briefly connected with Damian Willemse’s foot as he kicked off.
There was some thought that both teams might be foxing a bit, given they meet each other again a fortnight before the World Cup starts and potentially in a quarter final in France. But it really felt like Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus totally misread this opportunity. Not contesting lineouts early was a serious miscalculation, while the reliance on the famed ‘bomb squad’ seems to only pay off when the Springboks have established a lead. The bench are there as executioners, not firemen.
Despite the effort getting considerable better when the likes of Malcolm Marx and Pieter-Steph du Toit came on, it was just too late. Which begs the question the Neinaber and Erasmus: why didn’t you just, you know, start your best players?
Anyway, the Springboks know full well what they got wrong, with a rare admission on Twitter by Erasmus that referee Mathieu Raynal had a good performance. The reliance on Faf de Klerk doing the same (he didn’t) is palpable.
So, what can be made of the All Blacks? Things are looking a hell of a lot better than they were 12 months ago, that’s for sure, but we’re not going to know exactly where this team is at until they play a team that’s firing on all cylinders too. The Wallabies can, on their day, produce that sort of performance. But if these Bledisloe Tests do result in a predicted walkover, then we may not see that happen until the opening game of the World Cup against France.
It has been heartening to see the forward pack bully their way through the Pumas and Boks on successive weekends. Scott Barrett seems to be in the best form of his career and his utility value is going to come in very handy, Shannon Frizell has finally turned into the wrecking ball everyone hoped he’d be, the front row keeps trucking along nicely and still has Joe Moody to come back, and the depth across the pack is looking Olympic-sized rather than the paddling pool it was against Ireland last year.
The Mo’unga vs McKenzie debate was given a stunning rebuttal by the Crusaders’ first five, with the 10 jersey likely to stay in his possession for the Bledisloe opener in Melbourne. But the other winner in all this is Beauden Barrett. Through circumstance and a couple of excellent performances of his own, Barrett has emerged as the logical first choice fullback, with McKenzie on the bench in the 23 spot.
Another consequence of all this is that the All Blacks are now stacked full of goal kickers. On that note it was odd to see a Bok side show up to Auckland without a recognised kicker, but it wouldn’t have really mattered anyway.
But really the biggest difference maker was Will Jordan. Rumour has it his migraine condition is preventing him from taking long journeys by air, so for the All Blacks’ sake he can get that fixed by next month. Whatever the case is, they are a different team with him in it.
Jordan is good for a try a Test and was everywhere in the blistering opening passage. His ability to get to his feet and play on in the lead up to the first try was crucial, as was his instinct to find front rower Steven Kitshoff and cut back past him into space and set up Aaron Smith.
So, things are looking good. However, we already knew that the All Blacks are the best team in the world at making fools of sides that show up half cocked, and that is exactly what will happen to the Wallabies unless they can dramatically improve in the next week and a half.
Will Jordan of New Zealand makes a break against the Boks. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
The All Blacks will see the Boks again in London before the World Cup but given the South Africans’ schedule is Wales the preceding week and with a tough RWC opener against Scotland, there is no guarantee that will be a full strength side.
You have to hand it to Ian Foster: the critique of his decision to take almost the whole 36-man All Black squad to Argentina and back didn’t effect anything negatively and, from what the players said last week, achieved the goal of bringing the team together at the start of a massively important season. The Boks, on the other hand, may well point to their split squad approach as to why their start was so slow.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.