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Opinion
With six rounds left in the NRL, many scenarios are a mathematical possibility but in the real world, there are seven teams at most with anything resembling a realistic chance of lifting the trophy.
Penrith are undoubted favourites, Brisbane, Melbourne and South Sydney have the star power to make a dent in the finals while the Warriors, Cowboys and Raiders have the wildcard factor which can’t be written off.
You can never totally write off the Cinderella story if you saw the Wests Tigers catch lightning in a bottle in 2005.
Cronulla’s hopes of adding a companion piece to their 2016 trophy in their cabinet are over while Parramatta fans who nervously wondered 12 months ago whether this could be the year to break their 1986 drought won’t be chewing their fingernails this time around.
Dale Finucane’s season-ending bicep injury is the final nail in a Sharks coffin which was pretty much sealed shut after their inspid performances against the Warriors and Manly over the past fortnight.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Eels have Shaun Lane now out for the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury, compounding the absence of Josh Hodgson, Dylan Brown, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo.
When it comes to making the finals, it’s time to put a thick red line through the Titans even though they are only two wins off eighth spot. By the time Tino Fa’asuamaleaui comes back from suspension in a couple of weeks, they’ll likely not even be a mathematical hope.
Speaking of number crunching, only one team is guaranteed to not make the finals however the final six rounds play out – the Wests Tigers, whose best (unrealistic) hope would be to rise to 11th if they won their remaining matches and all other results went their way.
Not even the Panthers and Broncos are technically guaranteed a playoff berth as yet if they suddenly went on a losing streak and the worst-case scenario for them played out.
But if you would like to put some money on them missing the post-season, that is the definition of not gambling responsibly.
| Rank | Team | Best/Worst-case finish |
| 1 | Panthers | 1-11 |
| 2 | Broncos | 1-11 |
| 3 | Warriors | 1-12 |
| 4 | Storm | 1-12 |
| 5 | Raiders | 1-13 |
| 6 | Sharks | 1-16 |
| 7 | Cowboys | 1-14 |
| 8 | Eels | 1-16 |
| 9 | Rabbitohs | 1-16 |
| 10 | Knights | 1-17 |
| 11 | Sea Eagles | 1-17 |
| 12 | Roosters | 2-17 |
| 13 | Dolphins | 2-17 |
| 14 | Titans | 3-17 |
| 15 | Dragons | 7-17 |
| 16 | Bulldogs | 8-17 |
| 17 | Tigers | 11-17 |
Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final six rounds of the regular season.
Run home: Sharks (home), Storm (home), Sea Eagles (away), Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-11
Predicted finish: The minor premiership is there for the taking if they want it and with four games at home and just one trip out of Sydney to the fading Gold Coast, they could finish the season by converting their four-game winning streak into 10 unless Ivan Cleary starts giving his stars a late rest, as is his habit.
Run home: Roosters (home), Cowboys (away), Eels (home), bye, Raiders (away), Storm (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-11
Predicted finish: Kevin Walters will still be having nightmares about last year’s late-season fade-out to plummet from the top four to ninth and will be reminding his players about complacency. But with a fit roster, a bye and only two road trips on the horizon, a top-two finish should be a given, locking in Brisbane’s first home qualifying final since 2015.
Warriors five-eighth Luke Metcalf. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Run home: bye, Titans (away), Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-12
Predicted finish: Their remaining draw is a slice of heaven, dah dah dah, boom-boom. After this week’s bye they have to go through customs just twice and face no team ranked higher than 11th. Sneaking into the top two can’t be discounted, particularly if there’s a slip or two from the Broncos, who have a similar differential.
Run home: Eels (home), Panthers (away), Raiders (home), Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-12
Predicted finish: That loss in Newcastle last weekend could prove costly in the final wash-up in the race for the top four. Four home games is a bonus but the Panthers and Broncos should beat Craig Bellamy’s side on current form. Look like they’ll drop a spot or two.
Run home: Knights (home), Tigers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-13
Predicted finish: The enigma of the contenders – as their for-and-against record suggests, they can win tight matches but also toss out stinkers. Their Round 24 clash with the Storm may decide fourth spot but they’re just as likely to continue their hot streak against Melbourne and drop a winnable game against a lesser opponent.
Jarrod Croker. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Run home: Panthers (away), Rabbitohs (away), Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16
Predicted finish: Are sinking without a trace after being in third spot a fortnight ago. Have conceded 54, 44 and 30 in their past three outings against fellow finals contenders. Headed for eighth or ninth and a first-round exit.
Run home: Titans (away), Broncos (home), bye, Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-14
Predicted finish: Giddying up the ladder at the right time of year and should be able to withstand the body blow of Jeremiah Nanai being out for a month with a shoulder problem. They could benefit from a final-round clash with Penrith’s NSW Cup team for the second year in a row, which could get them into the top four if they account for Brisbane next week.
Run home: Storm (away), Dragons (home), Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye.
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16
Predicted finish: Injuries and ill discipline have torpedoed the Eels’ hopes of something similar to last year’s run to the Grand Final. Even if they sneak into the bottom of the eight they’ll be making up the numbers.
Run home: Tigers (away), Sharks (home), Dragons (home), Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-16
Predicted finish: With Latrell Mitchell finally fit again after his two-month calf complaint, the Rabbitohs have no more excuses. But as they’ve done a few times in recent years, they’re leaving their run too late to lock up an all-important top-four berth. Will probably end up fifth or sixth after last week’s crucial loss to Brisbane.
Run home: Raiders (away), Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-17
Predicted finish: They don’t have BP emblazoned across their fronts anymore in one of the worst colour clashes in jersey history but they have become the quiet achievers. Beating the Storm last Saturday showed they have put some steel back in Newcastle and with no top-four opponents on their schedule, jagging eighth spot can’t be ruled out.
Run home: Dragons (away), Roosters (away), Panthers (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 1-17
Predicted finish: Just when you thought they were had it, they pulled out a 30–0 blitz to blow the Sharks away before nearly coughing up that lead when injuries struck. That’s the tale of their season, they’ve looked strong in patches but don’t have much depth. They’ll end up a point or three outside the playoff equation.
James Tedesco. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Run home: Broncos (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 2-17
Predicted finish: The next fortnight is crucial for the uncharacteristically hot-and-cold Roosters. After winning three on the trot in March they haven’t had back-to-back victories since. No finals for you. A roster refresh is needed in Sydney’s east.
Run home: Bulldogs (away), Knights (home), Roosters (away), Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 2-17
Predicted finish: Have done well to defy dire pre-season predictions but seem to be running out of puff. Losing Tom Gilbert mid-year to a season-ending injury was the straw that broke the Dolphins’ back.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Run home: Cowboys (home), Warriors (home), Sharks (away), Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 3-17
Predicted finish: Des Hasler should have been drafted straight in when they punted Justin Holbrook last month. They lack intensity. Des does not.
Run home: Sea Eagles (home), Eels (away), Rabbitohs (away), Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 7-17
Predicted finish: The 2023 season was over early in 2022 when they exercised the option for the third year of Anthony Griffin’s contract. After waiting an inordinate amount of time to finally show him the door, they have been in a holding pattern under caretaker Ryan Carr, who has at least instilled some spirit into the club. Will probably jag another win or two to finish well clear of the spoon.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Run home: Dolphins (home), bye, Knights (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 8-17
Predicted finish: You could make an argument that they are the worst side in the NRL based on performances in relation to roster and pre-season predictions. No one expected the Tigers to do much this year but the Dogs were supposed to be half-decent. They’re not even a quarter-decent. Viliame Kikau is back after missing most of the season but he’s not going to be able to perform miracles with this disorganised mess.
Run home: Rabbitohs (home in Tamworth), Raiders (away), Warriors (home in NZ), Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).
Best/Worst-case scenario: 11-17
Predicted finish: Are a chance to become the fifth team since the turn of the century to not make it to four wins in a full season, alongside the Rabbitohs of 2003 and ‘06, the Bulldogs two years ago and the Knights in 2016, who only had one victory all year. Their chances of an upset in each of the last six rounds are the same each time – slim, at best.