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As an official ‘fan with keyboard’, it’s now my duty to give the sort of preview Eddie Jones wants you to think the New Zealand media put out before each Test match. So here goes:
The All Blacks will smash the Wallabies at the Melbourne Cricket Ground this Saturday, in front of a massive crowd that will be in awe of just how amazing New Zealanders are at rugby. Nobody believes the All Blacks can lose, especially after last year’s corresponding match in Melbourne where the most controversial part was the referee letting the Wallabies back into the game in the second half.
This is, of course, all building to what will no doubt be a triumphant World Cup campaign for the All Blacks, who are on track to take back the trophy in a final cruelly denied to them four years ago by the devious Jones’ England side.
OK, you get the picture. While some of that sentiment definitely exists in New Zealand, mostly confined to areas where glue-sniffing is still highly prevalent, what Jones wants to you to believe about All Black fans and the media certainly doesn’t reflect reality.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
He came in to Thursday’s press conference with somewhat of a subdued demeanour at first, but it didn’t take him long to fire up and get the room leaning forward to hang on his every word.
“There’s nothing better than winning against New Zealand because you feel the country sinking, right?” he said.
“It’s not just rugby that sinks, the country sinks. The whole economy goes down. The Prime Minister is there with his fingers crossed, hoping the All Blacks win, because he knows the economy is going to drop if they lose. So, we can have that effect.”
Again, that’s a bit of a stretch. It is an election year in New Zealand and if there is a change of government, it’ll happen whether the All Blacks bomb out or not. But you have to give it Eddie, it’s a good line.
So, what is the real feeling around Bledisloe I? If the All Blacks do get off to a fast start, it’s hard to see the Wallabies keeping up with them, even though they almost managed to do just that this time last year. The two wins that Foster’s men have recorded so far this year may as well have been logged after the first 20 minutes of each game, but that doesn’t mean they are flawless.
The Springboks successfully managed to score a lineout drive try against them two weeks ago, something that flew under the radar a little bit after the impressive opening blitz of possession and territory. While it never really felt like the Boks were within reach, it did show a potential vulnerability if a game could be stripped back to an arm wrestle up front.
We don’t associate Wallaby sides with that sort of play, at least not against the All Blacks, but it’s never a bad time to start trying. But while it’s easier said than done, simply denying the All Blacks the ball is the best way to achieve what Ireland did last year.
Looking at the history, it is tempting to think that the Wallabies are capable of an upset simply because they have done it in the last three World Cup seasons. But the other, probably more compelling history is that while Ian Foster has copped a ton of grief for the All Blacks’ results in his tenure, his record against the Wallabies is very good. Seven wins, a draw and a loss, with one of those being a record margin of victory.
Jones made sure he pointed out his all-time record against the All Blacks, at six wins and seven losses and a draw with the Wallabies and England he is the most successful coach in the pro era in that regard.
Of course, if you are going to put money on it, the most recent results are what matters. The All Blacks have been good, the Wallabies haven’t. Two teams heading in different directions, which could be made even more apparent if the All Blacks get off to another fast start at the MCG.
One thing is for sure though: there will be the largest crowd to watch a rugby union match in Australia for a decade and a half when the teams run out on Saturday night. Jones, switching effortlessly to promoter mode when he wasn’t being a shit-stirrer, made sure we knew that by mentioning it no less than six times.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.