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Opinion
Penrith and Brisbane continue their march at the top of the ladder but there’s a dozen other teams in the finals race who fall into three categories – hitting form at the right end of season, in a holding pattern and going backwards.
Not all of those teams are genuine chances of winning the premiership but if any of them want to make a late charge, it’s now or never.
You can’t just flick a switch a couple of weeks before the playoffs and expect to go all the way.
In the NRL era – the last five rounds of the NRL has been critical to the ultimate Premiership winner with a high percentage of wins necessary on the run in and an exceptional points for and against required to make a run at the title. You also need a healthy roster, an ounce of luck and a committed group of individuals to win the ultimate prize.
There are a few teams in the chasing bunch who are a hope of being there on Grand Final night.
Harry Grant celebrates scoring. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Melbourne strike me as a team who have the tools to make a deep run.
The Storm were far too strong for Parramatta on Friday night with Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes calling the shots.
Craig Bellamy said after the game that Ryan Papenhuyzen could finally be back from his fractured kneecap before the finals after he has a couple of weeks in Queensland Cup and that’s a massive bonus the Storm have up their sleeve.
Nick Meaney has been great for them at fullback and with Cameron Munster also in their spine, they can challenge the Panthers and Broncos in the big games if Papenhuyzen can quickly get back to somewhere near his best form after more than a year out.
The Cowboys had won six on the trot and lost a bit of momentum after their shock loss to the Titans on Sunday.
The Storm and Cowboys have crucial matches next weekend – Melbourne away to Penrith and North Queensland at home to Brisbane – which will give an indication of what the top four will look like after 27 rounds.
They were both well beaten last time they met those opponents so this will be a chance to show if they’re in the premiership conversation.
The Warriors are another team which is surging towards September. They had the bye this round and with their final four matches against teams outside the top eight, they could even force their way into the top two to host a qualifying final and the chance to go straight to week three.
They have had a rapid rise this year but they would be thinking they’re a chance of getting their hands on the trophy with the big-game players they’ve got.
There’s tons of experience in finals and Test footy with Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris, Addin Fonua-Blake, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak so nobody should be thinking they’ll just be happy to be there.
Newcastle are another team that’s struck their best form in the past month and although I can’t quite see them as being premiership contenders, they’ve blossomed since Kalyn Ponga went back to fullback a couple of months ago.
Kalyn Ponga (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Jackson Hastings and Tyson Gamble have been effective as halves – they epitomise the way the Knights have traditionally played by working hard, staying active and putting their body on the line for the team.
Phoenix Crossland has improved a tremendous amount as the season’s worn on at hooker filling in for Jayden Brailey. There was some pressure on the coach a couple of months ago but they’ve found some resolve in their defence and the past four weeks they’ve put up a collective 154-42, which is a monumental swing from how they were going earlier in the year.
Ponga was the player of the round with the way he kept slicing through the Raiders – whenever their defensive line was staggered, he’d seize on the opportunity and the 28-6 scoreline could have been even bigger.
Souths took a step back in the right direction by putting away the Tigers in Tamworth on Friday night and Latrell Mitchell looked good in his first game back for a couple of months.
His impact drew in defenders and Alex Johnston should be saying a big thank you to Latrell because it helped get him yet another hat-trick.
The Rabbitohs have got plenty of Origin talent and are back up in the top eight so now they have their full squad back on the park, they have a chance to keep rising up the ladder but they can’t afford any hiccups.
Lachlan Ilias. (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)
Canberra are just two points behind fourth spot but Ricky Stuart will have plenty of work to do at training this week to get their defensive line sorted because at times against the Knights it was all over the shop.
Manly are another team that’s doing well but are yet to get any real momentum going even though they’re still just a point off eighth spot after getting up 24-18 over St George Illawarra.
Cronulla have fallen off a cliff the past three weeks and with Will Kennedy looking like he’ll miss a few weeks with a torn hamstring, there’s not much to be optimistic about.
They were trounced by the Panthers and find themselves under pressure to make the eight just three weeks after being in third spot. All of a sudden, they have Manly and Newcastle, who won well against the Dragons and Canberra respectively, on their hammer.
Parramatta looked all at sea against the Storm on Friday night and with Dylan Brown available again this week they’re still in the hunt but their depth looks a bit stretched.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The Dolphins have been through a rough patch the past six weeks and a last-ditch loss to the Bulldogs may have put an end to their finals aspirations but they’ve still done remarkably well to still be in finals contention at this stage of the year when a lot of people thought they’d finish last heading into the season.
And the Roosters who were well beaten by Brisbane and the Titans, who bounced back from four losses on the trot with a great win over the Cowboys, are technically still in the race but it’s hard to see them suddenly becoming consistent enough to make the eight.
Way back in Januray of 2011 we were hosting a Maroons Origin camp and there was this young halfback who’d been playing well for Sunshine Coast in the Queensland Cup.
He impressed all the coaching staff with his attitude and work ethic and I remember saying to Mal Meninga that “he goes alright”.
A couple of months later he made his NRL debut for Manly and ended up playing every game that year as the Sea Eagles won the Grand Final and got picked for the Australian squad at the end of the season.
Daly Cherry-Evans has come a long way since then but he’s definitely lived up to my prediction that he’ll go alright, bringing up his 300th game with a typically polished display in Manly’s win over the Dragons in Wollongong on Saturday night.
He’s been remarkably durable over the years and has barely missed any games while he’s also dealt with plenty on and off the field at the Sea Eagles but been a true professional and an elite playmaker throughout the journey.
Last year at the World Cup, the coaching staff were faced with an excruciatingly tough call to decide between DCE and Nathan Cleary for the starting halfback’s spot in the semi-final and final.
Ultimately we opted for Cleary but DCE didn’t drop his head, he kept working hard at training and displaying the same team-first attitude that he’s always shown, and that’s the true mark of him as a person and a player.
Michael Hagan is a former dual-premiership winning first grade player and current assistant coach of Australia's Kangaroos team. Hagan played 183 games for Canterbury and Newcastle and represented Queensland five times. He transitioned into a successful coach and took the Knights to a premiership in his first year in charge back in 2001. He went onto coach 205 NRL games and six times for Queensland in Origin.