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Is there any hope for the Wallabies in Dunedin? Last week the idea was to target the All Black lineout close five metres out, because the Springboks had successfully managed to do so a fortnight before. The Wallabies tried that several times in Melbourne and came away with nothing, actually less than nothing because it felt like the entire 38-7 hiding was a huge step backwards in a season that feeling like it’s already fallen off a cliff anyway.
The All Blacks have made 12 pretty foreseeable changes to their side for the last game on NZ soil before the World Cup. It was always going to be the one where Samipeni Finau and Dallas McLeod would feature, plus the interesting case of Shaun Stevenson gets a happy ending (for now) for now when he starts on the wing.
Interestingly, Stevenson has a pretty remarkable record when debuting for first class teams: he’s scored in his first games for Waikato, North Harbour, the Chiefs, Māori All Blacks, All Blacks XV and even the Barbarians. So, every team he’s played for.
But his inclusion does peel the curtain back on a selection policy that is clearly more flexible than you’d think in a World Cup year. After blitzing Super Rugby Pacific as the form fullback, Stevenson was given the cold shoulder by Ian Foster, who at least appeared to favour the use of Beauden Barrett there in his top Test XV. Stevenson then ended up in the squad anyway as injury cover but given there are ample players to fill out the outside backs then it shows that Foster is either is grateful for Stevenson being part of the squad for all this time or his mind still hasn’t been made up.
Shaun Stevenson of the Chiefs celebrates after scoring a try during the round 11 Super Rugby Pacific match between Highlanders and Chiefs at Forsyth Barr Stadium, on May 05, 2023, in Dunedin, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Whatever the case is, it’s a bit weird. What’s also weird is a Barrett-free All Black side, but at least that will put a smile on new Wallaby captain Tate McDermott’s face. That’s because he’s still probably figuring out how Scott, the biggest one, managed to come flying through a lineout and grind McDermott into the MCG turf – an act that resulted in the ball popping loose and the All Blacks scoring one of the easiest and easily most embarrassing tries in Test history.
That aside, the All Blacks go into Saturday night at Forsyth Barr Stadium as favourites despite those 12 changes. Scott Barrett isn’t not exactly leaving a big gap, because in comes Samuel Whitelock with 144 Tests worth of experience.
It’ll be interesting to see how Finau goes. If Foster had purely been picking on Super Rugby form he probably would have been starting at blindside since Mendoza. It’s probable that Finau is playing for a spot from next season onwards, given Shannon Frizell has impressed greatly so far in 2023 and Scott Barrett would most likely be the next option on the side of the scrum given his experience.
One player who probably needs a big game is Finlay Christie. He gets a start at halfback, his fourth in Tests, but the emergence of Cam Roigard has meant that Christie has probably slipped to three on the depth chart. It’s an incredibly competitive area given that Brad Weber is still in there as a highly experienced option as well.
Braydon Ennor and Anton Lienert-Brown get a chance to impress although it looks like a tall order to bump Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane out of the top XV right now.
All of this spells an even taller task for the Wallabies. Eddie Jones made a big deal about the periods in which they played well in Melbourne, but given they had 20 minutes worth of good ball and territory and failed to do anything with it, that probably raises more questions than answers. It’s likely they’ll be better in Dunedin although the inexperienced Pone Fa’amausili and Zane Nonggorr have big jobs on his hands in a position where the Wallabies have struggled against the All Blacks anyway.
Still, there’s a lot to like about the backline. Marika Koroibete’s ultimately unsuccessful battle with Mark Telea was one of the highlights of last weekend’s Test, while Andrew Kellaway just kept battling full stop. If they can unlock the All Blacks’ unfamiliar midfield pairing, they’ll have a better shot at getting over the line than the forwards’ lineout drive.
There is a feeling that this game has been rendered slightly meaningless given the importance of what’s to come next. However, this game is Foster’s last in New Zealand after four turbulent seasons. He will ultimately be judged on how this team performs at the World Cup, but he can at least claim that that Bledisloe Cup was never in danger of leaving in his All Black tenure.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.