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Two weeks to go, and if you could believe it, the race for the eight just got even tighter.
Eight teams are still fighting tooth and nail for four precious spots in September, with some – hi, Carlton, Sydney and St Kilda – doing their chances the world of good, and others – *coughs in Western Bulldogs* – fumbling the bag quite spectacularly.
We farewelled Ben Cunnington in style with a two-goal, fend-off-laden last game, even if it wasn’t the fairytale victory he’d have hoped for. Collingwood and Port Adelaide rebounded in style with statement-making wins to dent the hopes of Geelong and GWS; while Melbourne got on the wrong end of a score review that could cost them a home qualifying final.
But the crowning jewel of the weekend was clearly the magnificent performance of a team which has had plenty of detractors over the years, but at the most crucial stage turned it on, got our hearts racing and united the nation in joyous acclaim on Saturday evening.
Enough about Fremantle’s win in the Derby, though, let’s make like Cortnee Vine burying a penalty into the bottom right and dive straight in.
It’s fair to say the reaction to the last-minute ‘insufficient evidence’ decision by the ARC to deem Christian Petracca’s kick a touched behind in Melbourne’s loss to Carlton has been… scathing.
Everything from the AFL’s poor camera quality on the goal line to allegations of cowardice by the upstairs official in not overturning the on-field call of touched lit up social media in the aftermath; then, on the Sunday Footy Show, Damian Barrett took what I believe to be a pretty cheap shot against Caleb Marchbank in suggesting the Blues defender was telling fibs in post-match interviews confirming that he touched it.
Honestly, I can’t understand why. From the on-field call to the post-score review decision, I thought the whole situation, one which given the state of the game was going to cause controversy whatever the final decision was, was handled perfectly by all involved.
With the evidence at hand, there was no definitive proof in my eyes, either way, that Marchbank hadn’t touched the ball. It came close enough to his fingertips, forearm AND boot on the way through that any one could have got the feather on the footy required to turn Petracca’s match-winner into a point.
Yes, that means that if the goal umpire had ruled it a goal, so it would have been confirmed by the ARC. You can’t tell me that that wouldn’t have caused the same level of consternation – just that this time, it would have been Carlton fans going nuclear at the umps instead of Melbourne supporters.
In any case, the on-field umpire’s call remains the tie-breaker when evidence is inconclusive, as it is for a significant portion of score reviews that don’t cause the same level of drama because they’re not in the last minute of games with so much at stake.
Whether it should be or not is up to personal preference – I hate it in cricket and think it’s problematic in the AFL that a review system specifically brought in because umpires aren’t perfect has said imperfect decision still playing such a crucial role – but in situations like this it’s no worse a solution than for, say, everything to be ruled a behind or a goal until there’s sufficient evidence to suggest otherwise.
As for the shoddy cameras – I don’t think even the most high-definition, mega-zoom camera on the market could prove whether Marchbank touched that ball or not.
There’s a difference between the high-tech VAR footage used at the Women’s World Cup to determine line-ball calls like that Sweden winning penalty against the USA that went half a millimetre over the goal line, and being able to determine whether a defender has got the barest of fingernails on the ball so as to not change its trajectory and make an imperceptible sound. In the round-ball football, it of course doesn’t matter whether the keeper gets anything on the ball before it goes into the back of the net.
This simply wasn’t a Demons robbery like I’ve seen many people claim it was. The system used is by no means perfect, but it’s a damn sight better than how it was even four years ago when the ARC was consistently making mistakes. And in the most chaotic sport in the world, that’s probably all we can reasonably expect it to be.
The Blues celebrate. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
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Two weeks ago, I wrote that the Western Bulldogs would be mad to sack Luke Beveridge.
I still believe in that – but my resolve is teetering alarmingly. There are only so many times the Bulldogs lose in the same, immensely frustrating way before you have to accept the reality that the man in charge has no clue how to stop it.
With their season on the line, with defeat likely to be the difference between a home elimination final and missing out on September altogether, the Dogs were pulverised by a team sharper, hungrier, and more disciplined in Hawthorn – one, damningly, with far less to play for.
Sure, Tom Liberatore’s concussion was a major blow one and a half quarters in, and it does line up nicely with the moment the Hawks took control of the midfield battle, but there is still enough talent in there for the Dogs that the obliteration they received at the hands of James Worpel, Will Day and especially Jai Newcombe can’t be accepted.
The Hawks kicked six goals in a row from the end of the second quarter to early in the last, and at no point did the Dogs look capable of arresting the momentum. In truth, they should have won by a lot more than three points, having missed a series of chances to bury the match in front of goal, but they certainly won’t be complaining.
The Dogs without question need a new style and new ideas – but that can be achieved without outing the coach, especially with Gold Coast and Richmond both having had extensive head starts in the hunt for their own new helmsman. Who am I kidding, though – the Dogs just aren’t going to sack Beveridge, no matter how loud the calls for his head grow.
But a season this disappointing, whether or not they scrape into eighth from here and get annihilated by Carlton in the first week of finals, demands change. Rohan Smith’s looming departure as backline coach come season’s end gives an opportunity to try and find the cool, insightful head alongside Beveridge in the box they’ve lack since Ashley Hansen, Daniel Giansiracusa and Steven King were all headhunted elsewhere in recent seasons.
I would be aghast if the club didn’t make a serious push to bring Stuart Dew in as a senior assistant. He was acclaimed during his time at Sydney for the Swans’ miserly defence during the early 2010s, and at Gold Coast built a strong core of defenders from a relatively piecemeal group.
Most importantly, he’d bring a second opinion, hopefully some fresh ideas, and a commanding presence to a coaching group that is dominated in every way by Beveridge. The other assistants are Marc Webb, Matt Spangher and Jamie Maddocks at the moment – none of whom have exactly shot the lights out during their time at Whitten Oval yet.
You don’t have to axe the coach to change the style – but change the Bulldogs must.
I’m not sure a team has ever finished top four five seasons in a row and received as much criticism as Brisbane has since 2019.
A lot of it is fair – the Lions have spent much of that time mired in the dreaded ‘good but not great’ territory, repeatedly coming up short at crucial moments in finals so a run of finishing second, second, fourth, sixth (and making a prelim) and now, as it stands, second again, hasn’t yet let to a single grand final.
Maybe 2023 will be a similar story, but the Lions have to be given credit where it’s due: while their flaws have been glaring in the last fortnight, they are clutch.
First holding off Fremantle by three points at Optus Stadium and then withstanding a ferocious Adelaide in the last quarter at the Gabba for a six-point win, the Lions have twice in a row done what they couldn’t against Melbourne a month ago, and held their nerve against a late surge.
Against the Dockers, they neutralised a crucial final centre bounce with desperate tackling pressure from Joe Daniher, then were able to take time off the clock with precise kicking: against the Crows, they flooded their defence with numbers, forced repeat stoppages, and thanks to some Adelaide inaccuracy, were able to prevent them from even getting a chance at the goal that would have tied the scores.
Chris Fagan cops a lot of flak for a guy who took over a team at rock bottom and has turned them into a regular premiership contender, and he has to be given credit here: he and his coaching staff recognised a problem after the Demons loss, worked on it, and their new set-up has come up clutch when it was needed most for a pair of wins that might prove the difference between a home qualifying final, and with it their best ever chance to reach that elusive grand final, and finishing fourth or even fifth.
With the biggest home ground advantage in the game – it’s now been nearly 12 months since the Lions lost at the Gabba – if the Lions can hold on to second, it’s going to be fiendishly difficult for any of the challengers beneath them to take that grand final spot off them.
What might decide it is Friday night’s date with Collingwood, who have held the mantle of AFL clutch kings for a year and a half. If this goes down to the wire, I can’t wait to see how the Lions handle the key moments against the undisputed masters of the close finish.
Speaking of the Crows, in the same game they pushed the Lions to the brink at their Gabba fortress, the general consensus seemed to be that their loss, as admirable as it was, meant curtains for their 2023 finals hopes.
But I’m not writing off the Crows just yet. If there’s one thing I’ve learned this most bonkers of seasons, it’s to expect twists galore in the last two rounds, and even if that 50-premiership-point mark I mentioned as being a finals threshold a few weeks ago is out of reach, there’s still plenty of scenarios in which the Crows scrape into the eight.
For starters, they’ll start as favourites in both their last two games: a juicy clash with Sydney at the Adelaide Oval in what is almost certainly an early elimination final, and then a West Coast outfit that might be spurred on to send Luke Shuey and Shannon Hurn out on a high but is still as bad as any team has been since the death of Fitzroy.
They’re playing good footy, too: they’ve twice in a month pushed top-four teams in Melbourne and Brisbane on the road only for two close losses that have become somewhat of a theme this year, while in between putting Port Adelaide to the sword for the second time this year.
Their impressive percentage gives them the edge over the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS and Essendon, and who knows: that might be what it boils down to at the end.
Will the Crows make the eight? Well, in my ladder predictor I’ve got them scraping into eighth, so do with that information what you will.
They’ll still need many, many results to go their way, and given the way this season has panned out you wouldn’t want to leave your finals fate up to the footy gods.
But if they do make it, well, they might just be the team most likely to cause Carlton some trouble in an elimination final. They did it earlier this year, didn’t they?
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With four losses in a row throwing their top-two hopes into jeopardy, it’s fair to say the last month has seen Port Adelaide drop substantially in all of our premiership estimations. Hell, going into this round I had them as the fifth-favourite.
But they couldn’t have done any more to win me back with their clinical dismantling of GWS at their Adelaide Oval fortress; now, top two is back on the agenda, and with it a golden chance to do what they couldn’t in 2020 and 2021 and reach a first grand final under Ken Hinkley.
The electric ball movement was back, as was the precise kicking and fast hands from stoppages. Up forward, Jeremy Finlayson was a brilliant focal point and gave Sam Taylor his second lowering of the colours in a fortnight, while nipping at his heels, Willie Rioli and Darcy Byrne-Jones were both excellent.
Oh, and that Jason Horne-Francis kid is pretty handy too.
The Power at the Adelaide Oval are, in all honesty, the best team in footy right now. With the crowd behind them and the wind at their sails, only Collingwood, by the skin of their teeth, have toppled them there among visiting teams.
Fremantle in Perth next week is going to be a major challenge, while they should be good enough to get past a flatlining Richmond in the last round. Winning both is a given for top-two honours; do that, and should Collingwood defeat Brisbane next Friday night, second spot will be theirs again.
I can’t be the only one eagerly anticipating a qualifying final between the Lions and the Power, wherever it’s played: it should be a free-flowing, beautifully skilled classic either way.
I’m not old enough to have great memories of the Socceroos’ penalty shootout against Uruguay in 2005 to qualify for the World Cup, so the scenes around the nation as the Matildas progressed to the semi-finals of their home tournament in the most dramatic of circumstances sparked a fervour I’ve not seen before in Australian sport.
More than any men’s team, what the Matildas have achieved at this World Cup, and indeed in the years leading up to this watershed moment, has transcended sport. I use the ‘Mum Index’ to determine this: my mother, who hates sport with a passion, was glued to the screen for the entire shootout, riding every save and buried pen, and celebrating wildly when Cortnee Vine stepped up to the spot and buried her shot to spark those memorable scenes of delirium.
I hope this doesn’t come across as patronising, but this, I think, is the true power of women’s sport: where men’s sports, by and large, are preaching to the converted, the Matildas are taking people who have no interest in sport in general and taking them on the most exhilarating of journeys.
And there’s no reason the AFL can’t learn from it, and at least try to replicate it in their own women’s code.
That the league chose to broadcast the Matildas game live at footy venues around the country, from the MCG to the SCG and over at Optus Stadium, isn’t only an unprecedented show of interest in football from a code which once did everything they could to stymy it’s growth… it’s also in stark contrast to a year in which the AFLW was repeatedly neglected to the point of chaos.
It took the league far too long to set a fixture, there’s growing discontent among the players over both the length of the season and the growing push for more equitable pay, and worries are emerging over TV viewership struggles last year.
There will be a lot of people who claim the AFLW and its players need to earn its keep before getting pay rises, and that in order to earn the exposure in mainstream media and on prime time TV required to grow the game must prove itself a worthy investment.
I don’t really have an argument against this take, other than to say this: eight years ago, the Matildas went on strike after getting paid $750 for a World Cup quarter-final run that included upsetting Brazil, refusing to tour the USA with player contracts then worth just $21,000 plus match fees.
Their success since, never more glorious than at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday, could not have come about without a long-term fight for equal pay to the Socceroos and – and this is key – lucrative opportunities overseas that allow our stars both the coaching and resources needed to unlock their full potential and the money to allow it to be a full time pursuit.
The AFL doesn’t have those international advantages, so it’s incumbent on them to compensate off their own bat. Right now, there are probably hundreds if not thousands of young women facing a similar dilemma to Sam Kerr: loving Aussie Rules, but pushed to the round-ball game by both the deeds of Kerr, Hayley Raso, Mackenzie Arnold and company and the fact that you can play not just for the love of the game, but also for a living.
You could make a similar argument for women’s cricketers, whose level has surged since they were fully professionalised: just look at what 20-year old Phoebe Litchfield is achieving on the international stage in that regard.
Right now, the AFL is a very, very distant third fiddle in Australia when it comes to women’s sports, and maybe even fourth in line considering the great strides rugby league is making with the NRLW.
Australian football has long proved itself too disorganised to expect them to capitalise on the Matildas’ success and turn its sport from the nation’s sleeping giant into a powerhouse to rival the big leagues – I’m expecting them to screw it up like they did just days after the Socceroos made it to the Round of 16 in Qatar late last year.
But right now, women’s sport is THE thing in this country, the fastest-growing market there is: the AFL can either strike while the iron is hot and fund the AFLW to compete, or start to lose ground as the Matildas continue to drag a rival code by its bootstraps into the limelight.
Is it worth the investment? Maybe ask the millions of Australians who went off their heads during the most unforgettable penalty shootout we’ll see in our lifetimes whether doing likewise for the Tillies since 2015 was.
(Photo by Chris Hyde – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Random thoughts
– There are about fifteen other Blues getting more adulation, but Alex Cincotta is a sneakily good footballer.
– This is some hilariously poor timing from Fremantle.
– Finn Magniness genuinely blanketed Liberatore, then went to Bailey Dale and shut him down too, and finished off by tagging Ed Richards. Three scalps in the one game.
– I didn’t think Brodie Grundy was as bad as the stat sheet suggests. Was a tough night for forwards on both sides, and thought he competed reasonably well. Had nothing to do with Max Gawn’s down night, either.
– Stuff you St Kilda, with your boring winning of games you should and avoiding unexpected surprises. Pricks.
– After watching the Matildas win THAT shootout, watching Sunday in Tassie was a timely reminder that loving sport is 90 per cent pain.
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