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Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Adelaide were stone cold robbed.
If you haven’t seen the decision by the goal umpire that Ben Keays’ snap for the winning goal in the dying minutes against Sydney had hit the post, watch it in the video player before we continue – it’s kind of important.
It’s not so much the decision that the ball had hit the post that is the problem – it’s certainly close enough for, in the heat of the moment, a millimetre call either way to be made. But that’s exactly why we have a score review system: to alleviate pressure on umpires making line-ball calls when the consequences can be as extreme as they were on Saturday night.
Given the amount of frivolous score reviews we see on a weekly basis in the AFL, where umpires are regularly criticised for being too cautious and wasting time, perhaps this is a timely example of why any doubt, no matter how miniscule, should be sent upstairs for a double-check.
If the goal umpire didn’t think it worth a second, forensic check to make sure a call that looks like deciding two seasons is the correct one, that is a problem. If that ball is sent upstairs, then it’s almost certain, regardless of the on-field call, that it’s deemed a goal.
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Add all that up, and it’s a robbery, and a mighty costly one, too. Regardless of the reasons for the mistake – be they a mistaken belief the sound of Callum Mills hitting the padding or some other trick of the eyes or ears that convinced that goal umpire beyond all doubt that it wasn’t a clean goal – it is inexcusable in any situation, but especially one in the dying minutes of one of the season’s most high-stakes games, to not use the technology specifically there to avoid controversies such as this.
It wouldn’t have been a howler had a score review system not existed – goal umpires are human, and they’ve made mistakes since the dawn of time. There’s a chance, however remote, that the ball did take the faintest sliver of post and the decision was right all along. I don’t believe it did, but there’d be a benefit of the doubt that you’d need to give to an umpire who is in the best position and needing to make an instantaneous call.
But that’s not the world we live in.
Now that that’s out of the way, and I’ve got the Adelaide supporters reading this worked into a frenzy, it’s time to turn that anger to me: your Crows only have themselves to blame for being denied finals as cruelly as that.
Not for the first time this year, the Crows thundered home with a wet sail having been thoroughly outworked and outclassed for the majority of the match, only to be left to rue wayward kicking for goal and an umpiring decision or two going against them.
I had something similar to say after the Crows wasted a three-quarter time lead to be overrun by Collingwood at the MCG a few months back, in which Jordan Dawson was denied a free kick that would have given him a set shot for the win after the siren. If you’re going to leave games up to the footy gods, games with the highest of stakes, then you leave yourself open to be bitten on the bum by the false teeth of fate.
There wouldn’t have been a lead for the Crows to fall one point short of mowing down if they hadn’t been smashed for the contested ball by a Sydney outfit for whom that is hardly a forte in the first half: the Swans rank mid-table this year for winning contested possessions and are third-worst at conceding it, yet when this game was truly up for grabs it was Sydney who burrowed in harder.
As damaging as the Crows are from forward-50 stoppages, they also leak their fair share – and good teams just don’t concede goals like this Isaac Heeney one in the second term as frequently as Adelaide do.
The Swans are also the second-worst clearance differential team for the season, yet managed to break even with the Crows until the last quarter, when centre bounces tipped dramatically Adelaide’s way. So decisive was the Crows’ dominance in that regard that it begged the question just what had happened for the first three quarters.
Then there are dumb things like this: maybe instead of pointing the blame at the goal umpire, we can wonder why Mark Keane chose to try and block this Tom Papley snap with his legs rather than actually diving for it?
In terms of desperation, look at the below passage of play, from midway through the first quarter. With an outnumber at all times, no Crow was able or willing to actually grab the footy!
To be sure, Sydney were terrific, just as they have been for all their now six consecutive wins that have hauled them from 15th on the ladder to just about locked into the finals.
During their four goals to one first quarter, which gave the Swans an ascendancy they retained throughout, featured a whopping eight intercept marks – remarkable not just given the wet conditions but also that the Crows have a forward line tailor made for ruling the skies.
With every passing week, the Swans’ backline looks closer to the well-marshalled defensive unit it was in 2022, having been crippled by injury and well down on form in the early rounds as they slumped into the bottom four. Tom McCartin was superb in curtailing Taylor Walker, Robbie Fox punches above his weight division again and again with aplomb and did so once more on a mix of the Crows’ smalls, and Dane Rampe’s return proved crucial as much for his cool head and leadership as his shutdown role on the much bigger Darcy Fogarty, who hardly looked likely all night.
Best of them all was Nick Blakey, who has had a number of these games in 2023 where he looks the best defender in the league. There’s not an athletic attribute this man doesn’t possess: he’s tall enough to battle and soundly defeat Riley Thilthorpe one on one, and then lithe enough at ground level to sprint of him and set up rebound after rebound with his laserlike right boot. His 21 disposals, nine intercepts and countless vital one-percenters were critical from start to finish.
In attack, Hayden McLean’s strong presence and sticky hands have been a revelation, and it’s him, not Joel Amartey or Logan McDonald, who looms as the leader of the forward line in this post-Buddy future. Isaac Heeney, too, has lifted considerably in the last month, mostly because of the extra supply he’s receiving in attack, and his cleanliness at ground level was a cut above most at the Adelaide Oval. With three goals, he too was the difference.
The Swans aren’t back to their 2022 best yet, and with Paddy McCartin retired and holes remaining in their midfield, it might be two or three years before they get back there. But this is a team built on spirit that has rediscovered that in the last two months. A lesser side would have, hit the post or no, been totally overwhelmed as the Crows surged in the last quarter, rather than holding their nerve through 24 minutes of constant Adelaide attacking from Taylor Walker’s goal at the three minute mark to make it three quick ones for the Crows, up until Josh Rachele gave them a sniff in the dying minutes.
As much as the Crows were robbed, as much as they lost it off their own bat, the Swans also won it. It’s important to remember that, and to succeed on the road in such a high-pressure environment bodes well for the Swans’ hopes of impacting September, if indeed they go on to make it.
But I hope that losing in that fashion, as close as they came and as controversially as they were denied, doesn’t become the focus for the Crows, over acknowledging the myriad of things they could have done better to avoid needing that goal umpire to call in their favour in the last two minutes.
Adelaide players react to their thrilling loss to Sydney. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Another eight behinds in their dominant last quarter will again frustrate supporters, and it’s true the Crows spurn more gettable shots than they can afford in just about all their losses. But the Crows kick well enough for goal on their best days to have to accept some level of variance on their worst, especially on a wet night, especially given part of their strategy is to back themselves to take shots from difficult positions rather than take the low-percentage centring option.
The Crows are still on the right track, and while the future is far from known, there’s every chance 2023 becomes known as the gawky teenage years they needed to get through to prove themselves men, and spur them on to greater heights. Hell, the Swans themselves are a case study of why progress isn’t always linear, given the age profile of their list last year seemed to herald a dynasty of constant premiership contention.
Alternatively, though, that future might never come about, and 2023 will be known as a wasted season. They’ve now lost five games, for just one win, by a goal or less; win even two of those losses, and with a game against West Coast next week they’d be all but assured of a home final.
Such are the fine lines in this competition.
The Crows are fun to watch, daring, brilliantly skilled and at their best are all that is good about footy. Izak Rankine in particular didn’t deserve to be on the losing side: the stats will suggest he’s had better days in Adelaide colours, but this was his most impactful, match-turning performance.
But too often it’s a slow start, or panicked finish, that costs them dearly in games they can make a reasonable claim to being the better side in; this latest lost as good an example as any.
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