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South Sydney’s late-season slump has set up what will be a local derby bigger blockbuster than usual in Round 27 with the Rabbitohs and Roosters set to fight out a winner takes all clash for the final playoff spot.
The Bunnies’ loss to in Newcastle and Canberra’s win over Canterbury on Sunday means the Knights and Raiders have all but sealed their playoff spot.
Newcastle need to win at home this Sunday against Cronulla or on the road to the Dragons in the final round while the Raiders are also still vulnerable due to their poor for-and-against record but can seal a post-season berth by avoiding defeat against Brisbane and the Sharks over the closing fortnight.
The Roosters, who have the last-placed Tigers before their Souths showdown at Accor Stadium, need the Cowboys to slip up against the Dolphins or Panthers to sneak into eighth.
If you want to be charitable, 11th-placed Parramatta are still a remote chance of qualifying – for that to eventuate, they’d have to upset the Panthers in Penrith on Thursday before the Eels have the bye in the final round to finish on 30. Then they’d need the Roosters (who have an inferior for-and-against differential) to lose to the Tigers then beat the Rabbitohs and the Cowboys to lose twice to the Dolphins and Penrith (or for the Eels to leapfrog them on differential if North Queensland win one of their two).
Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final rounds of the regular season.
Run home: Eels (home), Cowboys (home).
Predicted finish: Although he insisted the three players who sat out the win over Gold Coast all had injuries, it appears Ivan Cleary is doing the old Australian cricket team rotation policy in the final rounds instead of giving his entire side a break in the last match before the playoffs like last year. The minor premiership is set to go down to the wire unless the Broncos slip up in Canberra so that’s bad news for the Cowboys in their bid to land eighth spot.
Run home: Raiders (away), Storm (home).
Predicted finish: Getting Adam Reynolds fully fit for the finals should be Brisbane’s No.1 priority over the next fortnight. He’s already been ruled out of the trip to Canberra due to his calf strain and the Broncos should still have enough firepower to win one of their last two games to ensure they retain second spot.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Run home: Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).
Predicted finish: The door is ever so slightly ajar for the Warriors to complete an improbable rise into second due to Reynolds’ injury meaning Brisbane are no certainties to win both their games. The Warriors would still need to rack up big scores on the Dragons and Dolphins so it’s not quite Lloyd Christmas “you’re saying there’s a chance” level optimism but it’s close.
Run home: Titans (home), Broncos (away).
Predicted finish: They’ll account for the Titans then the Broncos game will be a must-win if the Sharks are still nipping at their heels as they have a similar points differential. The Storm need Ryan Papenhuyzen as a bench weapon at the least to make a mark in the finals.
Run home: Knights (away), Raiders (home).
Predicted finish: Thoroughly deserved their win in the tropics over the Cowboys and will not be the finals fodder everyone was expecting even though true title contention still looks a bridge too far. Sunday’s trip to Newcastle is massive – if they win, fourth spot is still a chance but a loss could send them to seventh and facing a sudden-death road scenario in week one of the finals.
Run home: Broncos (home), Sharks (away).
Predicted finish: Did enough to beat the Bulldogs and that has been Canberra’s modus operandi all season – putting away the dud teams and scoring enough wins over the contenders to remain in the playoff race. They’re going to be underdogs in both their remaining matches and if they lose them and the Cowboys and Roosters or Rabbitohs win out, then the Raiders could still miss the eight due to their woeful differential.
Run home: Sharks (home), Dragons (away).
Predicted finish: You don’t win seven in a row unless you are doing plenty right and the Knights silenced any remaining doubters with their disposal of Souths even without Jackson Hastings. If they can continue their roll against the Sharks and Dragons, fifth spot is a distinct possibility for a team that was potentially punting their coach mid-season.
Run home: bye, Roosters (home).
Predicted finish: They don’t particularly deserve to make the finals. Everyone has been waiting for them to click and at some point in time you’ve got to say it’s not going to happen.
Run home: Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).
Predicted finish: Another side that has flattered to deceive. They could and probably should be in the top eight but their form does not warrant it and even if they put away the Dolphins this week, they’re unlikely to win in Penrith to finish the season even if the Panthers are resting stars.
Run home: Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).
Predicted finish: Of the fringe top-eight contenders this is the team that has at least shown some fight despite ongoing injury problems. They’ll be too strong and motivated for the Tigers this week and they would be heavy favourites to rack up another W against Souths next week. Even if they get knocked out of the finals in week one, Roosters fans will consider it a good year if they deny the Rabbitohs a playoff spot.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Run home: Panthers (away), bye.
Predicted finish: The season can’t end early enough for the Eels and at least it will a week earlier than everyone else due to their bye next round. They have the slightest of chances of sneaking in but it would need a miracle that even Parramatta Jesus couldn’t muster.
Run home: Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).
Predicted finish: Have shown some spirit and were a little unlucky to lose in Auckland to the Warriors but this season has shown they don’t have the roster depth to be legitimate contenders. Unfortunately, 2024 will also hinge on Tom Trbojevic’s fragile availability.
Run home: Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).
Predicted finish: Never has a team lost by 26 and deserved such a margin less. The Titans competed with the Panthers and outplayed them for long stretches on Saturday before the premiers blew out the final scoreline. They won’t beat the Storm but they should mail the Dogs to finish 2023.
Run home: Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).
Predicted finish: Another team that is limping to the finish. The hype around their strong start to the year seems like a long time ago – Wayne Bennett is giving a few prospects a run in the closing rounds to see if they’re worth investing in next year.
Run home: Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).
Predicted finish: They competed with the Raiders in Canberra but if that’s the best thing that you can say about the Bulldogs for at least a month, that tells you all you need to know. Hard to see them winning again even though they’re facing fellow also-rans in the final fortnight.
Run home: Warriors (away), Knights (home).
Predicted finish: Four weeks in a row they’ve given teams higher up the ladder a run for their money, yet ultimately they’ve come up short. Where was this spirit earlier in the year when it mattered?
Run home: Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).
Predicted finish: The dream of avoiding a second straight spoon is still alive but it will likely evaporate at the hands of the Roosters this weekend. At least they haven’t been the worst in terms of for-and-against this year with Canterbury runaway “winners” in that category.