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For some, the final round of the 2023 home-and-away season couldn’t mean any less. For others, it’s the most important of the entire year.
That’s the situation facing the AFL for the last weekend before September arrives; from North Melbourne’s quest to lose their way to Pick 1 and Harley Reid, to GWS and the Western Bulldogs duking it out for the last spot in the eight, it’s going to be a fascinating weekend as well as one fiendishly difficult to tip.
The top four is also up in the air, though Collingwood and Brisbane are heavily favoured to secure top-two berths with wins on their home grounds, and with it the cleanest of paths through to the grand final. With Melbourne and especially Port Adelaide waiting in the wings, however, neither will be keen on slipping up.
So who takes the chocolates and who ends their season on a miserable note? Let’s see who our experts have backed to get it done in Round 24.
Last week: 6
Collingwood, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS
As you can tell by the title – I’m expecting the Bulldogs to let me down this week.
It doesn’t matter that the Geelong team they’ll be facing has all of Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan out, plus a whole host of other premiership players, and have clearly put the cue in the rack for 2023. The Dogs lost to an undermanned Cats earlier this year, and have frankly been ordinary at best for the last three months. If you expect to be disappointed, you soften the blow.
From there, I hope GWS end up taking down Carlton on the final day to leave the Dogs two games adrift outside, and I think they will, given both the Giants’ excellent recent form and the Blues surely having one eye on finals.
The third-most important game of the weekend sees Sydney host Melbourne, and I’m bucking the trend here: I think the Swans might be due a loss and the come-down from locking in finals will leave them vulnerable against a Melbourne outfit looking to build for a September berth.
As for the rest of the top four, Brisbane are good enough to handle St Kilda, for all their pressure and intensity, while if Collingwood somehow lose to a banged-up Essendon running out the clock on 2023 they’ll have REAL problems. Port Adelaide, too, should have no issues taking care of Richmond at the Adelaide Oval.
Then, there’s three dead-rubbers which surely will only be watched by supporters of the teams involved. From most confident to least confident: Gold Coast might have nothing to play for, but with Damien Hardwick watching on they’ll surely want to impress the new boss and take down a North Melbourne outfit for whom Pick 1 is on the line; Hawthorn are in great form and the Dockers don’t have the key talls to trouble their vulnerable defence; and while I’ve gone for Adelaide, I think West Coast are a sneaky chance to farewell Shannon Hurn and Luke Shuey with a win, having picked up their form in recent weeks either side of a Derby horror show and the Crows probably a bit flat about THAT loss last week.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 6
Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton
We’ve finally reached the final round! It’s a fun season and it’s a long season, but it’ll be good to have the first week of the AFLW unchallenged by any other footy next week. This last round of the home-and-away season might end up being a little anticlimactic compared to what we expected, but a few twists and turns are inevitable.
You just know the Magpies are seeking a chance to send a message this week. Coming up against the Essendon Witches Hats is handy, although they’ll want to come out to play after the embarrassment of last week. Collingwood wins here, secures top spot and starts their flag charge.
Logic suggests Hawthorn should win in the final round, but the Dockers will be desperate to stay 14th and not hand over an even better pick to the Demons than they already are. I’ll back them in here.
Two teams that don’t want to win should make for a great Tasmanian clash between the Kangaroos and Suns. There are cues, there are racks, it’s just a matter of which team is more accurate in where they place them. I’ve gone Gold Coast.
Can we spend a quick sentence giving a shoutout to the Saints? I’ve been as critical as anyone, but their style has changed since Tim Membrey has returned and they look rock solid with quicker ball movement. They shouldn’t beat Brisbane, but they deserve their finals spot and could lock in a home one here.
Wouldn’t it be the most Bulldogs things of all time to win the flag from here after losing to West Coast? You can’t completely the shut the door on it, because of the humour that would arise. They should finally get a win in Geelong against another team participating in billiards this weekend.
Sorry Crows fans, that’s all I’ll say ahead of their last game of the season against West Coast. It shouldn’t be that way.
If Port win by 20 goals against the Tigers on Sunday, it’ll be reminiscent of the final round of 2016 and Richmond will win multiple flags going forward. If it’s only 15 goals, the Power are a chance this year.
If the door is open for a home final, you know that the Swans will push hard for it. The Demons will know if they can move from fourth position or not by the time they play, so I’ll lean towards the Swans as they’ll likely have more to play for.
Finally, Carlton and GWS. This is either the most meaningful game of the round, or it’s Sunday night fodder. Hopefully the Bulldogs win on Saturday to make this game super exciting. Again, it’s a flip of a coin, but I think the streak could continue for Carlton.
Luke Shuey of the Eagles. (Getty Images/David Mariuz)
Last week: 6
Collingwood, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton
Sorry, Tim – on a balance of probabilities, I have the Bulldogs still finding a way to scrape into eighth after this weekend is done.
How? Well, the Geelong team they’ll be facing is a virtual second team, with virtually the entire forward line sitting on the sidelines. The side the Cats have put out might honestly be worse than what the Eagles had last week – having said that, this is the Dogs we’re talking about, so there’s every chance they’ll just kick to Tom Stewart all night and lose anyway.
The other factor going the Dogs’ way is Carlton, who might not have anything to play for in the conventional sense, but will surely be wary of flirting with their amazing form on finals eve. Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra are super-handy ins to bolster an already fearsome midfield, and with spots at a premium, I reckon the 16-22 players from Paddy Dow to Jesse Motlop will be cracking in knowing a good performance here could earn them a September berth.
As for the rest, I’m backing Sydney to lock in a home final against a Melbourne outfit for whom victory for either Brisbane or Port Adelaide will make finishing fourth and facing Collingwood in the first week a better option than a trip interstate. That’s bad news for the Saints, who have defied doubters for weeks but surely aren’t good enough to beat the Lions in Brisbane, which will leave them barracking for the Demons at the SCG on Sunday to retain their hold on sixth.
Speaking of the Power, they should run up a cricket score on a Richmond outfit whose season symbolically ended with last week’s send-off of Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt. Ditto Collingwood securing the minor premiership against Essendon, who in selecting Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti for one last game proves both the swathe of first-choice names out and their desire to put sentimentality above a dead-rubber win.
That’s all the games with finals permutations attached: as for the rest, Hawthorn are in excellent form and should have no trouble rubber-stamping their improvement this year with a win over Freo at the MCG, Adelaide will ensure ‘hit the post-gate’ will be what robs them of finals by doing what the Dogs should have done and beating West Coast, and in a match where both North Melbourne and Gold Coast will be fine with losing, the Suns are just plain better.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. (Getty Images/Scott Barbour)
Last week: 5
Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS
And it all comes down to this. Eight teams – seven of which are already known – will go through to the finals, and ten will be playing their last matches of 2023.
It’ll be a bit of fun, eh?
Essendon shot themselves in the foot last week, with a deplorable loss to the Giants – and a terrible, no good few weeks – killing their finals hopes. Optimistically, they can play hilarious spoiler to Collingwood’s minor premiership claim, but pessimistically they’re very little chance on current form of upsetting the slightly-closer-to-full-strength Magpies.
Hawthorn and Freo have belied expectations with diametrically opposite approaches this season: the Hawks overperforming and the Dockers disappointing. This clash is a good barometer headed into next year, and more from hope than logic I’m going to back my boys in for one last win. Why not?
The Eagles’ win last week has left the Kangas in an awkward spot: ‘win’ a third straight wooden spoon, or push for an upset actual win against the Suns? The Queenslanders won’t be at full strength, and Tassie swings things slightly towards North, but I’m more comfortable going the favourites.
The Saints are locked into finals – well-deserved, by the way – but face a significant challenge at the Gabba. The Lions, owing to their strength at this ground, desperately want a home final – whether it be first or second. They’ll know the Pies’ result well before this clash but are likely to come out guns a-blazing regardless. As much as I think they’ll be neutral fans’ finals favourite, I just can’t see an upset here for the Saints.
The Doggies won’t want to speak about last Sunday, and now face a simple yet daunting equation to make finals: earn the four points in their clash with Geelong, and hope like hell the Giants lose to Carlton. The equation begins and ends with the Cats, who have an excellent record over the Dogs – and will be keen to finish the season on a high despite missing finals.
The Crows, too, will be keen to end on a high after last week’s umpiring calamity – and have the perfect opportunity to do just that facing the Eagles (though it’s about 10 per cent harder after last week).
Port will comfortably defeat Richmond – uncomfortably ending somewhere between minor premiers and third, depending on others – to kick off Sunday, while newly-locked-into-finals Sydney have an excellent shot at an upset over the Demons. Let’s back them in.
The round ends with the Giants a chance to need a win over Carlton to maintain eighth spot on the ladder. The Blues came unnervingly close to losing last week and will feel quietly confident at home. That’s a blessing and a curse – for max chaos, I’m going to back the expansion side.
Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw of the Dockers celebrate. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 24 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESS vs COL | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| HAW vs FRE | HAW | FRE | HAW | FRE | HAW |
| NM vs GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS |
| BL vs STK | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| GEE vs WB | GEE | WB | WB | GEE | WB |
| WCE vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| PA vs RCH | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| SYD vs MEL | MEL | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| CAR vs GWS | GWS | CAR | CAR | GWS | CAR |
| LAST WEEK | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 124 | 133 | 133 | 129 | 141 |
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