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This past weekend saw the All Blacks demolished by a South African team that seems to have found their way.
Aside from some strong defensive work early on by the All Blacks, having another match-day experience before the RWC tournament, and giving exposure at the highest level for the many younger team members, there were very few things to be happy about – the brilliant solo try by newbie Cam Roigard being the exception.
The All-Blacks coaches and players have time to truly learn and adapt so that they are not monstered again – by any team – at the actual RWC. ‘No need to panic’, is what we are hearing.
Maybe that’s right.
Although the tournament starts at the end of next week, the quarter-finals won’t be played until seven weeks from now (14th & 15th of October). A lot can be accomplished in seven weeks. With no disrespect to Italy, Namibia and Uruguay, let’s assume the All Blacks make it to the QFs.
Not only can a lot of problem-solving and improvement occur by then, but other teams may suffer serious challenges in the weeks ahead (e.g., injuries, red card offences, referee and TMO decisions, bench tactics that backfire (like 7-1 splits but then two backs come off and who replaces them?), teams simply being ‘off’ on match-day, or the sheer individual brilliance in matches that can change final results (e.g., a Roigard moment at the end of a tightly-fought match).
Non-match factors can also affect the emotional, mental and physical state of players – and the coaches. And influence performances (e.g., sickness running through teams and off-field dramas (e.g., England and the Owen Farrell effect, or Eddie Jones going over the top).
Siya Kolisi of South Africa competing with Mark Telea of New Zealand (right) during the Summer International match between New Zealand All Blacks v South Africa at Twickenham Stadium on August 25, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)
South Africa played a brilliant match at Twickenham, showing the world how to beat the All Blacks. The ‘how’ is not really a surprise, however, because it’s a similar playbook to how England beat the All Blacks in Japan, how Ireland defeated them last year in New Zealand, and to a lesser extent, how the Wallabies almost beat the All Blacks in Dunedin a few weeks ago).
If this is South Africa’s primary playbook you can guarantee that coaches and players alike, especially in the French, Irish and Scottish camps, will be dissecting the Twickenham thrashing and preparing for their respective matches with South Africa accordingly. These teams are not going to say they are worried about the Springboks. But they will be strategising about the South African model, especially the emphasis on forward dominance.
The All Blacks will watch and learn from how Scotland (10th Sept) and Ireland (23rd Sept) take on South Africa in Group B; see what works and what doesn’t. Aside from the somewhat risky 7-1 split on the bench, the Springboks did not have their defence tested in any significant way by the All Blacks.
In Finn Russell and Johnny Sexton they have playmakers who can open up the South Africans in multiple ways and have them on the back foot. Scotland and Ireland will play a highly varied attack at pace, focused on stretching the Springbok backline wide, making incisive line breaks, putting the ball behind the South African forwards and sustaining the pressure. That requires possession of the ball, of course.
With several weeks before the quarter-finals, some big decisions may be necessary in the All Blacks camp. Is it time for Beauden Barrett to be out of the starting fifteen and be replaced by Will Jordan? Which also makes way for the hard-working Lester Fainga’anuku to start matches? Should Fainga’anuku be on the bench instead of Anton Leinert-Brown? Should the composition of the bench be given a big rethink? Should Roigard get more experience through starting most of the Group matches with a view to possibly starting the QF, and resting Aaron Smith as much as possible in the process? Should Samipeni Finau join the squad to replace one of the six props?
Or is it sufficient, as in fact it appears when listening to Ian Foster, that the team stays relatively intact as is, and it’s simply a case of making smaller tweaks and adjustments – and please, for everyone not to panic.
Most likely it will be somewhere in between.
But there is a big elephant in the room.
Most importantly, by QF time in mid-October the recurring weaknesses from the past few years – exposed this time by South Africa – must be addressed. When flustered, rushed, out-muscled and on the back foot in the first 20 minutes of a game these All Blacks fold. Panic sets in. Simple mistakes are made, penalties conceded, and oppositions smell victory. Where is the reset button that previous All Black teams use to press?
Beauden Barrett of New Zealand looks on during the Summer International match between New Zealand All Blacks v South Africa at Twickenham Stadium on August 25, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)
This year, until the Twickenham defeat, it had looked like these things could finally be in the rear mirror. But as we now well know, they are now staring back at every All Black and the coaches. This needs to change.
Right now, the team is in Germany immersed in reflections, a healing process, brutal honesty, gruelling training sessions and tough decisions being pondered on team selection. As of writing this piece, there are seven weeks to put things in order. Will that happen? I think ‘Yes.’ But individual and collective mental transformations need to occur, and a good dose of luck must be sprinkled if we are to see the team hoist the Webb Ellis Cup on the 28th of October.
We should see signs of the transformation in the opening match against France next week (Friday 8th September). If not, it could be a short stay in France for the All Blacks regardless of who they play in the quarter-finals.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.