- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Opinion
Hands up if you botched your pre-season top-eight predictions? Eels, Cowboys, Bunnies let you down too?
My February educated stab in the dark also had Manly making the eight and the Raiders missing out.
It’s a funny game. It’s a foony game.
And now that nine teams are conducting their mandatory reviews, commiserating their season at the bar and gearing up for their “best off-season yet”, eight clubs are left standing.
Anything can happen. Expect the unexpected. It’s a whole new ball game … or the Panthers juggernaut will roll on to what appears to be a near inevitable third straight premiership.
Here’s how each of the eight teams could lift the trophy … and why they will not.
Penrith celebrate after winning the minor premiership. (Photo by Izhar Khan/Getty Images)
Why they can: How much time do you have? Let’s start with premiership DNA built up from winning the past two grand finals, the best halfback in the NRL, the busiest fullback, the most effective forward pack and a coach who never gets flustered but still has his team ready to rip in every week.
The six-week hamstring-enforced holiday that Nathan Cleary enjoyed midway through the season means he’s fresh for the finals and even though his usual halves partner Jarome Luai is sidelined for at least a couple more weeks with a shoulder injury, the Panthers are primed to become the first time since Parramatta in 1983 to rack up a rare three-peat.
Why they can’t: They are coming into a fourth straight deep finals run. Throw in plenty of Origin matches, Tests and a World Cup campaign for many of their star players and those extra miles on the legs can add up. Even the salary cap-supercharged Storm could only win two titles from 2006-09.
Luai’s absence is not insignificant even though Jack Cogger is a very capable replacement while they will have a few other players in their line-up who lack big-game experience like Zac Hosking, Sunia Turuva and Soni Luke so they’re not quite invincible.
Why they can: Adam Reynolds is rivalling Daly Cherry-Evans for the title of the smartest player in the NRL. He doesn’t have the all-round skill set to match Nathan Cleary but Reynolds has been the catalyst for the Broncos’ resurgence.
Add to that the one-two punch of Patrick Carrigan and Payne Haas in the middle of the ruck and the blinding acceleration of Reece Walsh ensuring opposition defenders can’t just lock in on Reynolds and these Broncos shape up as the team most likely to deny Penrith their slice of history.
Why they can’t: They have inexperience in two of the key positions with Ezra Mam at five-eighth and Billy Walters at hooker. Walters is reliable without being flashy while Mam can be a game-breaker with his flamboyant play but also a liability in defence.
Brisbane are also up against Melbourne to start their playoff campaign, a team that has beaten them in their past 14 meetings. In fact, the Broncos have only had 13 wins over the Storm since 1998 and a paltry six since 2004. That’s a hoodoo.
Why they can: Their spine is as strong as any team in the NRL whether they stick with Nick Meaney at fullback or bring Ryan Papenhuyzen to complement the trio of Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant. Along with Craig Bellamy in the coach’s box spraying invective, they know what it takes to win playoff matches and premierships.
The Storm enter the finals with five wins from their past six games and if they can continue their stranglehold over Brisbane first up, they will host a preliminary final in Melbourne in week three against a beatable opponent in the Warriors, Sharks or Roosters unless the Panthers stumble out of the gates.
Ryan Papenhuyzen. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Why they can’t: Their pack is not what it once was. The loss of Felise Kaufusi, and Kenny and Jesse Bromwich has reduced their fear factor while they no longer have the luxury of Brandon Smith coming off the bench to bring sudden impact against tiring forwards.
Their usually most impactful centre, Justin Olam, has been down on form and relegated to the Queensland Cup while Papenhuyzen has played just one and a half NRL games since midway through last season so they are unlikely to get the kind of production from him which earned him the Clive Churchill Medal in their most recent premiership win in 2020.
Why they can: Because they are still being under-rated and written off as a team that has over-achieved on expectations. Under first-year coach Andrew Webster, the Warriors have exceeded all season long by opponents underestimating this ragtag collection of players.
Shaun Johnson is arguably in career-best form and odds on to win the Dally M Medal and 12 years in between drinks, he is producing a similar purple patch to the one which propelled the Warriors to their most recent Grand Final appearances.
Why they can’t: A back injury could keep their most influential forward out in Tohu Harris or limit his effectiveness.
There is not a lot of big-game experience in this Warriors side so the likes of Harris, utility Dylan Walker, fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Johnson will need to provide veteran leadership to their younger cohorts.
The Warriors’ form has been patchy in the lead-up to the finals even though they’ve kept winning against a string of also-rans and that soft late-season draw may have stalled their momentum.
Why they can: Nine straight wins. The Roosters are the next best among the finals teams with five. Newcastle have been rejuvenated since Kalyn Ponga returned to fullback midway through the season with his class elevating the support cast of Bradman Best, Dominic Young, Jackson Hastings, Tyson Frizell and the Saifiti twins.
They have role players galore but they form an effective attacking unit and willing defensive line which has not only reinvigorated their title chances after they had slumped to 14th but revived interest in Newcastle that is never dormant but has not reached this kind of fever pitch for at least a decade.
Why they can’t: Ponga has a dodgy shoulder, Hastings has a wonky ankle. If those two are out or unable to perform at their best, the Knights’ attack is good but not potent enough to be successful in the finals.
Adam Clune and Lachie Miller are capable back-ups but the standard of opposition will be more than a smidgeon higher than what was dished up at Kogarah last Saturday night by a St George Illawarra side which looked like they had already started their Mad Monday drinkfest prior to kick-off.
Why they can: Nicho Hynes learned a lot from his mid-season form slump when he was cast aside by NSW. He’s back to controlling Cronulla’s movements with precision with Braydon Trindall and Connor Tracey stepping up to give the Sharks extra points of attack.
Their pack doesn’t have the big names of other teams but they’re all willing workers and Wade Graham has been playing like someone who is treating every game like it could be his last since recently announcing his retirement.
Like the Warriors, they also have the benefit of being given little chance of playoff success after struggling against top-eight opposition in recent years.
Why they can’t: They lack the quality to compete with the cream of the crop.
With Will Kennedy, Dale Finucane and Teig Wilton out injured, they’re missing three of their vital cogs and after losing both playoff matches last year at full strength, it would be a tall order to expect them to reverse that trend this time around to win four straight.
Why they can: When it comes to finals experience, this team still has plenty with James Tedesco, Luke Keary, Joey Manu, Brandon Smith and Victor Radley knowing what it’s like, and what it takes, to lift the NRL trophy.
They’ve won five straight to enter the finals with momentum and with Sam Walker combining with Keary in the halves again, they have two playmakers capable of unleashing the likes of Tedesco, Manu and Joseph Suaalii.
Why they can’t: Their five straight wins were over teams who did not make the finals although granted the last one was to take down a Souths team which was occupying a playoff slot until full-time on Friday night.
They don’t have the aura that Roosters teams of the recent past enjoyed and they have the worst attacking output of the eight remaining teams.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Why they can: Stranger things have happened. Not often, but they have. The Cowboys were in a similar situation in 2017 when they just squeaked into the playoffs in the final round despite middling form and then surged to the GF even though Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott were sidelined.
The full-time siren had barely finished and Ricky Stuart was playing up the siege mentality on Sunday by claiming nobody expected his team to be in the finals. If Jack Wighton can rediscover his 2019 playoff form which took the Raiders to the big dance (and roughly a dozen more things go Canberra’s way), they could shock the NRL world.
Why they can’t: Have you seen them play lately?
The Raiders won’t see injured veteran Josh Papali’i again this year while Corey Horsburgh will only suit up again in they make the decider
Stuart is trying anything he can to spark some form in his side, including trying Wighton at centre. It won’t work. Even if Ponga and Hastings are out this Sunday, the Raiders will be hard pressed to survive week one let alone challenge for the title.