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The Warriors are set to be rewarded for their astonishing rise from pre-season wooden spoon contenders to top four heavyweights at this year’s Dally M Awards.
Veteran halfback Shaun Johnson is a near unbackable favourite to win the game’s highest individual honour while rookie mentor Andrew Webster is set to beat out some of the biggest names in the coaching game and Tohu Harris should be named top captain.
But nothing is certain in rugby league and the award’s new voting format, which now has two judges per game, has the potential for someone like Johnson to establish a record winning margin at the top of the leaderboard or perhaps for the greater variety of opinions at games to even out the field.
As we’ve seen in recent years when judges have been caught out not even watching games live, anomalies can be thrown up out of nowhere.
Nathan Cleary looked certain to claim the Dally M in 2020 after Penrith’s meteoric rise into title contention only to finish third behind surprise winner Jack Wighton and Eels fullback Clint Gutherson.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Penrith’s model of consistent class Dylan Edwards, Broncos prop Payne Haas, Storm hooker Harry Grant and last year’s winner, Sharks half Nicho Hynes are in with a chance of gazumping Johnson.
If he doesn’t regret his petulance enough already, Reece Walsh’s foul-mouthed spray at a referee during Brisbane’s loss to the Titans has made him ineligible even though he will poll plenty of votes.
Two of the major awards have already been decided with Dolphins winger Jamayne Isaako topping the pointscoring tally with 244 to win by a 28 from Nick Meaney while he has also achieved the rare double of picking up the Ken Irvine Medal with his 24 tries one more than Newcastle’s Dominic Young.
The last person to achieve the double was Immortal centre Mal Meninga in 1990 during Canberra’s second premiership season.
Not bad for a player unwanted by the Broncos and who struggled to make an impact during his one-season stopover at the Titans last year.
Here’s how the Dally M Awards should play out …
Dally M Medal: Shaun Johnson – Warriors
Last year’s winner: Nicho Hynes – Sharks
It has to be Johnson. Or does it? When the voting went behind closed doors after Round 12, he was eight votes off the pace in equal seventh spot.
Under the new rules, each game a player is banned now earns them a six-point deduction and anyone “suspended from two or more matches” immediately becomes ineligible.
Here’s how the season played out for the top 10 on the mid-year leaderboard.
Payne Haas (30 points after Round 12): He loses six of these points for a Round 9 suspension and only played nine times in the final 15 weeks of the season.
Nathan Cleary 27: Missed five matches with a hamstring injury so unlikely to finish in the top five.
Harry Grant 27: The Storm hooker has done well to play every game this year apart from a final-round rest on top of three Origins. His form has been solid in the second half of the season so he could be a contender.
Nicho Hynes 25: Last year’s winner only missed one game since Round 12 and will poll well in Cronulla’s seven wins in the second half of the season so he cannot be discounted for back-to-back medals.
Reece Walsh 24: The star fullback has been a messiah and a naughty boy for the Broncos. He’s played in eight wins since the close of voting and while his form hasn’t been as red-hot as it was before his two-game contrary conduct ban for ref abuse, his points tally will be high but ineligible.
Latrell Mitchell 23: South Sydney’s No.1 gun has played just four matches since Round 12 and will be docked six points for his Round 27 suspension.
Payne Haas. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Ben Hunt 22: Has only missed 2 matches all year and has again been St George Illawarra’s best but they won just twice in the second half of the season so his chances are slim at best.
Cody Walker 22: The Rabbitohs five-eighth also played all but two games but his form was as patchy as the team’s as they went 4-6 post Round 12.
Dylan Edwards 22: He’s already got a Clive Churchill Medal and he may have a Dally M to match very soon. Edwards played in 11 wins since Round 12 with the Panthers losing the only match he missed all year to Parramatta. His stats are always impressive and with Cleary missing a large chunk of matches, the judges will send more votes the way of Edwards and Isaah Yeo.
Shaun Johnson 22: He only missed Round 27 when Webster rested his stars with an unlikely top-four berth already locked in. The Warriors won 10 of the 12 matches when he was at halfback in the second half of the year and he will surely accrue many votes during that timeframe.
The revitalised 32-year-old deserves to become just the fourth Kiwi-born winner of the Dally M (after Gary Freeman, Jason Taumalolo and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck) but Edwards, Hynes, Grant and Haas cannot be written off.
Among players outside the top 10 after Round 12, Daly Cherry-Evans (18) will poll well as he was always Manly’s most dominant player but their lack of victories in the second half of the season will hold him back.
Titans skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui was also on 18 and his team’s best player by a mile all season but he copped a three-game ban late in the year to end any chance he had.
Fullback: Edwards will win his first Dally M fullback award with Walsh ineligible, Mitchell’s chances ruined by injury and suspension.
Last year’s winner: James Tedesco – Roosters
Dominic Young catches a kick on his way to score. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Wingers: Isaako and Young should get the nod here for their try-scoring exploits ahead of Warriors veteran Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, perennial candidate Alex Johnston and Fijian tanks Maika Sivo and Mikaele Ravalawa.
Last year’s winners: Joseph Sua’ali’i – Roosters, Alex Johnston – Rabbitohs
Centres: Brisbane duo Herbie Farnworth and Kotoni Staggs have been brilliant but South Sydney’s Campbell Graham will probably get the nod ahead of one of them. Bradman Best’s run home with a wet sail at Newcastle and Stephen Crichton’s consistent class at Penrith also put them in the mix in a wide open field.
Last year’s winners: Joseph Manu – Roosters, Valentine Holmes – Cowboys
Five-Eighth: Walker will probably edge out Cameron Munster but for whatever reason it hasn’t been a standout season for five-eighths with usual suspects like Wighton, Dylan Brown, Matt Burton and Luke Keary all having down years.
Last year’s winner: Cameron Munster – Melbourne
Halfback: It should be Johnson and while he hasn’t got the headlines as much as last season’s breakout year, Hynes will be there or thereabouts. The No.7s have dominated with Hunt, Cherry-Evans, Brisbane skipper Adam Reynolds and Eels playmaker Mitchell Moses showing why they’re on the big bucks.
Last year’s winner: Nicho Hynes – Cronulla
Props: Haas is a certainty for one spot and Fa’asuamaleaui would have been his partner if not for his shoulder charge suspension ruling him out. Addin Fonua-Blake will probably edge out Penrith duo James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota. Just getting word through that Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has failed the eligibility criteria on judiciary grounds. No appeal likely.
Last year’s winners: Joseph Tapine – Canberra, Payne Haas – Brisbane
Hooker: Grant’s efforts at the Storm will get him this award in a canter.
Last year’s winner: Api Koroisau – Penrith
(Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)
Second-Rowers: A tricky one here with no clear standouts – David Fifita’s return to form on the Gold Coast will probably get recognised with Hudson Young, Tyson Frizell and Liam Martin fighting it out for the other spot.
Last year’s winners: Viliame Kikau – Penrith, Jeremiah Nanai – Cowboys
Lock: Yeo and Brisbane’s Patrick Carrigan have been the pick of the bunch with Harris not far behind at the Warriors. Yeo always polls well so he has a strong chance to take home his fourth straight award.
Last year’s winner: Isaah Yeo – Penrith
Rookie of the Year: Panthers winger Sunia Turuva is eligible as he only played three matches last year, Bulldogs forward Jacob Preston has been a revelation and Will Warbrick and Alofiana Khan-Pereira have done well on the wing for Melbourne and Gold Coast respectively. But for impact, Wests Tigers fullback Jahream Bula has been the leading graduate for the class of ’23.
Last year’s winner: Jeremiah Nanai – Cowboys
Captain: Harris has been inspirational for the Warriors – hopefully he can overcome his back injury and finish off his superb leadership job for this season in the playoffs.
Last year’s winner: Isaah Yeo – Penrith
Coach: Webster would have been in the bottom three of candidates if you did a straw poll at the start of the year but the little-known former Panthers assistant has transformed the Warriors, brought out the best in Johnson and several other veterans who had been written off. Even if the Warriors flame out in the finals, his effort in breathing life into the club has been immense in a crucial season back home after three years relocated in Australia.
Last year’s winner: Todd Payten – Cowboys