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The Grand Final is perhaps the most tactically interesting game of the year, because we get to see the most-honed systems face off.
To get this far, you have to be the best collectives, and – apologies to Test footy and Origin – there’s no rep arena that has enough time to develop proper systems and coaching.
Rugby league is the most systematic of sports and these are the best two sides at getting their systems working over the longest period. Stick that on the poster, NRL.
We’re lucky this year in that we get 1 v 2, which is great, and also two highly contrasting approaches from Penrith and Brisbane.
It’s the best defence against the best attack, a high completion side against an adventurous team, a backs-first yardage machine against a forward-dominant middle, an offence designed around a lock against one built for a fullback.
Us nerds are in heaven here. Styles make fights and boy, do we have two contrasting styles.
The generals in charge are Ivan Cleary and Kevin Walters, with Nathan Cleary and Adam Reynolds clear lieutenants on the field.
But, perhaps, the most interesting players might be Isaah Yeo, the glue that holds the Panthers together, and Reece Walsh, the focal point for the Broncos. But what about Dylan Edwards, the most dependable spark for Penrith, or Payne Haas, the dominant force for Brisbane.
The coaches themselves knew the task ahead of them, between the systems and the strike.
“It’s easy,” said Walters when asked to identify the Panthers’ greatest strength. “They’ve been a good side for a long time and you’ve heard Ivan talk about it, they play the long game.
“They’re a ruthless side, they give you the whole lot. They’ve set the standard for the last four years on how to get to and win the Grand Final.”
Ivan’s response focused on the speed.
“They’re an extremely athletic team, very dynamic right across the park,” he said. “From all areas of the field, they’ve got a lot of strike power.
“They’re led by some pretty experienced players in Adam and (Kurt) Capewell, who have been excellent signings to steer that young side around and harness that athletic potential.”
Apologies if you’re a regular reader, because it’s probably getting a bit dull by now, but the thing about the Panthers is that they’ll make you play their game.
If you get into a high completions, high ball-in-play, washing machine type of game, then you’ll probably lose.
Scour their full strength defeats this year and you’ll notice this trend. Teams that don’t engage tend to do better.
The early year defeats to Saints and the Broncos, it were pretty low cohesion stuff in which the Panthers failed to get their good ball attack going, so we might be able to flush them for lack of relevance.
But there are guidelines. Multiple times against Parra (and, Saints, who consciously followed their blueprint), they were smashed in second phase and kicked to pieces, with the net effect that they were thrown off their usual possession and position game.
Against Souths, the Bunnies were genuinely better than them, through a combination of rugged defence and fearless, systematic attack, while also making the game as stop-start as possible.
Kotoni Staggs. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Against the Tigers – again, if we’re being honest, Saints again – there were cataclysmic conditions that induced massive variance into proceedings.
So what can the Broncos learn? Short of hoping Penrith simply don’t turn up or the weather intervenes, there are aspects they can control.
Brisbane should probably avoid the temptation to get into the grind for too long. It’s not that they’re not good at it – indeed, their transitional work on plays 1,2 and 5 were among their best aspects even last year – but they aren’t as good at it as Penrith are.
They need to change up that part of their game, likely more in terms of where they end their rather than how they start them.
The Panthers had 27 minutes in possession against Souths and 25 against the Tigers – compared to 38 against the Broncos in Round 12 – which, obviously, makes their pressure tactics more containable.
That’s easier said than done, of course, because Penrith are masters at getting through their business and forcing repeats and errors.
What Brisbane can control, however, is their starts and ends. In Round 1, the Broncos out-kicked the Panthers by more than 300m and in Parra’s early win, Mitch Moses topped 1,000m from the boot.
He knocked Edwards’ defusal rate as low as 73%. Penrith average 200m in kick return meres, but considerably lower in losses, because more balls hit the turf or cross the sideline.
If you’re Walters, you’ll likely be telling Reynolds to kick early and find the floor – or, simply, find touch. Make them bring it back under set conditions rather than engage in the cycle, especially if, as expected, it’s really hot on Sunday.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
Generating fatigue is what the Panthers are about, but they’re not immune to it themselves. When opponents have been able to move them around – either through second phase, like Parra, or laterally, like Souths – then they can be got at.
Brisbane will do the latter naturally, as that’s their game, and they need to maintain that element of their style throughout.
They have improved in the offloading stakes, too, and will need Payne Haas to be at his best, and for his teammates to be up around the ball when he gets the arm free.
Typically the Broncos have enjoyed getting , they can find joy by shifting to their left, where newly crowned Dally M Centre of the Year Herbie Farnworth will be attack and Izack Tago and Jarome Luai, both only recently back from injury, will be defending.
Conversely, the other edge will have Cleary, one of the best defensive halves around, and Stephen Crichton, the other Centre of the Year. They will not be so easily picked apart, and will have spent the last week watching the Broncos run their favourite pattern.
We’ve mentioned how good the Broncos are on Plays 1 and 2, and what they can do on their kick play, whether that’s last tackle or before.
We’ve also mentioned their offload, and how they need to get that rolling to force Penrith to do more work in defence.
The final aspect is their Plays 3 and 4. This has been their major area of development in 2023 and where they can hope to extract the most strike against the Panthers.
Brisbane are not a side that needs to build pressure or generate field position to score, and they needn’t try to be now.
Their best moves come from mid-range, with confidence to go wide, get early ball to their centres, find space for Walsh to play and, crucially, allow him to make errors without fear.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
As much as going into the grind with Penrith is a strategic error, so is removing their own best elements through conservatism.
The Broncos can upset the Panthers’ rhythm by making the field as wide as possible – notably, something Parramatta also do – which can in turn help get Haas into one-man or two-man tackles and get that offload rolling. It also increases the likelihood of Reynolds getting better kicks away.
Most of all, it makes Walsh’s speed more of a factor. If the winger stay wide, the defenders have to spread out more, creating lanes for passes and greater distances between tacklers that Walsh can exploit. He’s done this all year, of course, and this is the fundamental plan of attack for Brisbane.
The greater question is how frequently they will be willing to run their plays, and how capable the Panthers are at defending them.
In their midseason clash – admittedly without Reynolds – the Broncos suffered a little in this regard.
Walsh got a season-high 43 touches of the ball, but only managed 16 runs, pretty much bang on his average. He did get a try assist, but off his boot, and if Walsh is kicking rather than running, the Panthers will be very happy indeed.