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The NBA’s radical new idea to stop teams tanking during the regular season to get a lottery pick might be completely out of left field, but it also might just work.
The new proposal, initially reported last week by Grantland’s Zach Lowe, completely eliminates the draft lottery in favour of a set draft order for every team for the next 30 years.
The plan would have each team slowly cycle through the draft slots and be guaranteed a top-six pick every five years. They’d have the number one pick once in a thirty-year cycle.
For example, a team picking 30th in the first season of this plan’s implementation would have the 19th, 18th, seventh and then sixth pick over the course of five years.
You can see the wheel itself in the above link.
Before we lose our heads, this plan can be considered something of a longshot. It would take years to implement, and the approval of three-quarters of the NBA’s ownership (although some, such as the Celtics’ Danny Ainge, are already on board).
Some major questions need to be answered.
How do you determine the starting positions for all 30 teams? Surely some teams will be unhappy with where they are slotted.
When should this new system be implemented? It couldn’t really begin until 2020 when all current draft pick trades have been finalised anyway.
There are numerous criticisms too.
Wouldn’t this punish bad teams? If they drafted a bust with their early pick they’d have to wait another five years for one.
Wouldn’t the best teams benefit the most? Imagine if the Heat, Spurs or Thunder got a first overall pick heading into this season.
These are fair criticisms, but they are also overblown.
A bad team will always draft poorly, regardless of how many lottery picks they have. Even if they hit on a winner, having one superstar surrounded by subpar talent is not a recipe for success (see: the Cleveland Cavaliers).
Likewise a good team will always make the most of their selections, regardless of where they are picking.
In short: well-run teams will still win, and poorly run ones will still lose.
Of course, this argument cuts both ways, if well-run teams will still win, why worry about them being punished with late picks for their success and just keep it as it is?
Then there’s the worry that the top-tier college prospects might hold off declaring for the draft if they know that a bad team is picking first and opt to stay in college for another year.
A concern. RT @spncrrr: @[me]Wouldn't this system allow top college players to "aim" for certain teams and stay in school as long as needed?
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) December 23, 2013
This would be even more of an issue if next year’s number one team was a winning one.
But that’s a little far fetched. Realistically, the vast majority of college prospects have no idea where they’ll be picked. Even Andrew Wiggins’ draft stock has fluctuated this season, and he’s no longer a slam-dunk number one overall pick.
Talked to a bunch of NBA guys before the game. The gap has closed between Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker for the No. 1 pick.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanESPN) December 20, 2013
The point of these changes are not to make it easier for bad teams to get good players or harder for good teams to remain competitive, it’s to completely eliminate tanking from the game.
In that goal alone, this new plan would be completely successful, as it removes all incentive for a team to throw the season.
In fact, the less competitive teams might benefit from these changes, as they would enjoy more fans coming to their games in the second half of the season if they knew their team was trying to win.
The fact is tanking exists in the NBA, and it’s not hidden or hinted at like it is in other American pro sports leagues, it’s painfully obvious.
When an anonymous NBA general manager directly states to ESPN that their plan is to tank this season, it’s clear that there’s an issue.
“This season we want to develop and evaluate our young players, let them learn from their mistakes — and get us in position to grab a great player. The best way to do that is to lose a lot of games,” the anonymous GM reportedly told ESPN’s Jeff Goodman.
It’s a stain on the Association, and this plan, as flawed and crazy as it seems, would completely eliminate tanking from the game.
That’s good enough for me.
What do you think Roarers? Would this radical system work?
Dominic is a US sports editor and writer based in Maryland, USA. You can follow him on Twitter @AussieAudible
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