With another week of the European tour over, only two matches remain this year in order to identify where the Rugby World Cup contenders stand among their peers.
It was a fitting way for most teams to finish up, with a wealth of good performances and improvements illustrated by teams from all over the globe.
No week of international rugby is complete without a few upset wins and tight finishes though, and this week was no different.
As opposed to my regular reviews, I’ll briefly go over the scores and identify the prospects for each nation competing in the World Cup.
The week started with a tussle between Fiji and the USA, two nations out to prove a point and both looking to finish third in their respective pools – a tough yet very possible ask.
Fiji bounced back from tough games against France and Wales to win 20-14, but the Eagles showed that they are constantly improving and will be looking to stamp their name in a pool that is battling for second place behind South Africa.
Speaking of, South Africa claimed another northern scalp, this time against the unimpressive Italy. The Italians followed on with their habit of finishing games tryless, but interestingly, they were never really out of contention for a lot of the match, which is something South Africa should be worried about.
Despite never really threatening the Springbok defence, Italy were only down 8-6 at half time and were it not for a late try to Bryan Habana, the final 22-6 scoreline would have looked a lot kinder to the Azzurri.
Next up was a battle that showed the difference between a tier one and a tier two nation. Scotland took on Tonga and both teams seemed to have a role reversal according to previous matches played between the two.
Whereas Scotland turned down shots at goal to go for the five-pointer, Tonga remained intent on just keeping the scoreboard ticking, knocking over penalty after penalty. Scotland’s fantastic defence helped them out though, and their willingness to attack meant that Scotland came out a deserved and comfortable 37-12 victor.
Next up was the Ireland and Australia encounter that many had been waiting for. As an Aussie, the first 15 minutes in which we trailed 17-0 were among the most painful I’ve endured in recent times, but the way we regrouped and fought back showed a lot of positive signs.
Nevertheless, a quiet second half filled with rattling defence and a lot of scrimmaging practice saw the Irish come out on top, deserved 26-23 winners.
In the least entertaining match of the round, not just because of my lack of knowledge on most players participating, Romania trumped Canada 18-9 in a kick-a-thon led by seasoned campaigner Florin Vlaicu, who knocked over six goals to claim the lead for the Eastern Europeans.
The match does give a fair indication of who the cellar dwellers of Pool D will be next year, as both teams will be struggling to conquer against rivals France, Ireland and Italy.
One of the games of the round (or second halves of the round) comes from the almighty battle between the disappointed Welsh and the all-conquering All Blacks. Despite being locked up at 3-3 at half-time, the All Blacks saved their resurgence until the last 15 minutes where they put on a three-try blitz to finish comfortable winners at 34-16.
Wales played valiantly, but the numbers don’t look good for them, as they have spent portions of their matches this year against Australia, South Africa and New Zealand in the lead, but haven’t been able to close out for a win since defeating Australia in 2008.
England bounced back from their fifth straight loss with a 28-9 win over Samoa. Their defence held strong to keep the flying Samoans out, and George Ford proved a revelation in his first starting role for the Poms, but the match was all but convincing at half-time.
The game was, however, enough to get them back in the winner’s circle and ready to take on a Wallabies outfit hungry for their second Test of the tour. Whichever team loses will be looking at a lowly one win from four matches, a statistic that no top five side wants to bare.
Georgia took on an understrength Japan team and came out deserved winners. The 35-24 encounter flatters the Japanese greatly too. Georgia dominated nearly every match-up and are really showing what their exposure in French rugby is yielding in terms of results, with a handful of players plying their trade in the Top 14 or the step below.
Japan have their work cut out, but with a bit of improvement can stamp their name on the global stage next year with some big performances.
Finally, in my game of the round, Argentina delivered a fantastic game plan where they managed to conquer a dangerous French outfit 18-13. It was a bit of Fofana brilliance that rewarded France for their hard work, but ultimately the three drop goals from sharpshooting flyhalf Nicholas Sanchez, as well as the sneaky three-pointer from the man outside, Juan Martin Hernandez, gave Argentina a fantastic win.
Drop goals are often viewed negatively, and don’t get recognised as being worth the three points, however the Argentinian pack did all the hard work in setting up the kickers to belt the ball down to the opposition end and then to eventually set up for the drop goal. Although painful for a French fan to watch, the impact the forwards had showed meant Dos Pumas came away with a great win to top off an impressive year under the new coach, Daniel Hourcade.
With only the matches between South Africa and Wales and England versus Australia left, the pecking order is taking shape and the men are being separated from the boys as 2015 Rugby World Cup approaches.
Pool A – Australia, England, Fiji, Uruguay and Wales
The top position should be decided this coming weekend when Australia and England go head-to-head, but based on recent form I expect England and Australia to finish first and second respectively.
Wales have a bit to improve, but are nowhere near written off in the most contested pool of the competition. Fiji will looking for another upset win over Wales, as per the 2007 World Cup, whereas Uruguay will be hoping for a losing bonus point, and even that is wishful thinking.
Pool B – Japan, Samoa, Scotland, South Africa and USA
South Africa may as well plan for their quarter-final match-up against the runner-up of Pool A. The race for second place, however, will be a lot more interesting as Samoa, Scotland and Japan scramble among themselves.
I hate to write off the USA, as they have been playing some great games, but these teams may just be too much of a challenge. Japan have shied away from their good form and will be looking to get a win over the USA and the Samoans. While beating Scotland wouldn’t be impossible, I see them as the team to beat in order to advance to the quarter-finals.
Pool C – Argnetina, Georgia, Namibia, New Zealand and Tonga
This is another pool that has already decided its winner, and the battle for second isn’t even really much of a contest either. The two Rugby Championship nations should advance with relative ease, albeit a return case of the Tongan team from 2011 that got a victory over France to cause a scare or two.
Tonga will be hoping for a two and two win-loss ratio at worst, but Georgia are quickly improving and a win against the men from Tonga wasn’t too far off from happening when they took battle three weeks ago. Namibia will be hoping for their first win in this prestigious tournament, and now is as good a time as ever to notch a victory over the Georgians.
Pool D – Canada, France, Ireland, Italy and Romania
This pool, much like Pool A, will be interesting to see who finishes second and third, with the obvious difference being that the teams competing for this position are less likely to go on to win the World Cup than England, Australia or Wales.
Ireland have been playing marvelously and should take out top spot if they keep playing the way they have in their most impressive year to date. This is the first time they’ve looked to be an actual contender for the World Cup, however without having played New Zealand this year, it’s hard to say just where they stand at the moment.
France should claim second spot and maintain their record of making it to the quarter-finals, however the inconsistency of both them and Italy means no one really knows how good the team will perform until the 80 minutes is up. Romania and Canada will battle to avoid the wooden spoon, although neither team will be written off when they come up against Italy.
Based on all of this, it means my projected finals would commence looking like this: England versus Scotland, Australia versus South Africa, New Zealand versus France and Argentina versus Ireland.
I think that’s a fair reflection of the teams’ current form and, apart from Wales, every team within the best eight according to IRB rankings should feature in the finals.
Time is counting down and excitement grows every night as the Rugby World Cup draws nearer. Where does your team stand in the race to the finish and are your expectations similar?
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