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Ten bold predictions for the post-All-Star NBA season

The Golden State Warriors are more likely to chase a championship than records this year. (Photo: AP)
Roar Guru
17th February, 2016
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The games before and after the All-Star break often serve as a calculator for NBA teams.

With about 50 games preceding the All-Star break, this portion of the schedule provides a large enough body of work to make fair judgments in regards to where teams are heading this season.

With about 30 games remaining, though, it also provides enough time for teams to make changes and adjustments to make one last playoff run.

So, with that being said, the All-Star break allows us to refresh and look back on the season’s unofficial first half but also to look ahead and make predictions for the second half, the stretch run if you will, of the NBA season.

Which teams will make a late playoff push? Which teams will make history? Which players will put up incredible stat lines and take the league by storm?

The NBA season is about to kick into high gear, so here are ten bold predictions for the unofficial second half of the season.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns will be the NBA’s best big man
Why not start out with a big one?

There is no shortage of talented bigs in the NBA. From Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green and Andre Drummond, the NBA is top-heavy with versatile big men who can bring so much more to the court than just size and rebounding.

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One player has a chance to shine brighter than the rest in the season’s final 30-odd games though and that is Towns, who is having one of the best rookie seasons of all-time.

Towns has been a revelation in Minnesota this season, using his unique and immensely impressive skill-set to mould himself into one of the NBA’s most talented power forwards. His super soft touch around the basket allows him to finish at the rim, his array of post moves has defenders on their heels, he has range that extends out to the three-point line and he uses his athleticism to run the floor.

In fact, Towns is putting up almost identical numbers as Tim Duncan, widely considered as the greatest power forward of all time, did in his rookie season.

Per Basketball Reference, Towns is averaging 20.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, while shooting 54.4 per cent from the field and 37.5 per cent from downtown per 36 minutes.

Duncan’s per 36-minute numbers in his rookie season were 19.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 2.5 assists, 0.6 steals, while shooting 54.9 per cent.

As mentioned, Towns will face some stiff competition to grab the mantle of the league’s best big man. Although, there is no reason why he cannot prove himself to be just that in the Timberwolves’ final 30 games.

2. Golden State will break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ wins record
This would have been a bold prediction before the season began.

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Now? Not so much.

The Warriors have simply taken the league by storm this season, playing basketball at the level that has been matched by nobody. Stephen Curry is shooting the ball at an astonishing rate, Draymond Green is a triple-double machine and Klay Thompson can kill a team in a quarter.

At the moment, Golden State have a record of 48-4. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls finished the season with a 72-10 record and they had a record of 47-5 after their first 52 games in that season.

This means the Warriors need to win at least 24 of their final 30 games to tie the Bulls’ record. That would require an 80 per cent winning percentage from the Warriors over the final 30 games. In their first 52, Golden State had a 92.3 per cent winning percentage.

So, all the numbers add up. The Warriors are on pace to break the record but let’s consider some external factors. Resting players is becoming commonplace in the NBA and with the Warriors’ current position there is a very real chance they let Curry, Green and Thompson sit some games.

For the sake of this article, though, let’s say the Warriors don’t rest anyone for the remainder of the season. In this case, Golden State will win more than 72 games.

3. Oklahoma City will finish second in the West
About a month or so ago, I wrote that the San Antonio Spurs were the best team in the NBA. While the Warriors – like they have with so many others – have shut me up since then, I still believe the Spurs will be their biggest challengers come playoff time.

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Although that will be in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder pose the biggest threat to the Warriors (if that even means anything) and the Thunder will end up finishing second in the Western Conference.

This doesn’t imply that the Thunder are better or are a bigger threat to the Warriors. The Spurs still hold that claim, with Oklahoma City just a hair behind. The Thunder still falls back into too much isolation basketball in clutch moments. This strategy wins regular season games but it doesn’t win playoff series.

Let’s consider some things, though.

San Antonio are profound for resting their star players during the regular season. Gregg Popovich doesn’t show his cards in the regular season, as he always saves some tricks up his sleeve for the playoffs.

Oklahoma City meanwhile are quietly destroying the league, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook playing some career-best ball. They are slowly figuring things out on the defensive end and are currently 5.5 games behind the Spurs for the second spot in the West.

That is a lot of wins to make up in 30 games, especially when chasing the Spurs. It would be bold to predict the Thunder will catch the Spurs and that is why I’m going to do it. Plus, would anyone here go against betting on Durant and Westbrook?

4. The Los Angeles Clippers will collapse
The Clippers are a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. That explosion may occur before this season ends or possibly come playoff time.

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LA are currently sitting fourth in the West with a record of 35-18 but that’s beside the point. They have enough talent to win a lot of games in the surprisingly mediocre Western Conference.

The wins are masking an undercurrent of warning signs for the Clippers, though, which could potentially lead them to blowing up a roster that seems to have already reached it’s ceiling this off-season.

Blake Griffin could be the first domino to fall.

Griffin, who started the season playing the best ball of his career, has had his season derailed by injuries, including a self-inflicted broken hand when he punched a Clippers equipment manager. Many people believe Griffin won’t return this season, as the injury may be more severe than the franchise are revealing.

Now rumours are leaking that Griffin could be on the trading block in the off-season, which would be the beginning of yet another rebuild for the Clippers. Obviously trading Griffin, the Clippers would demand a star in return but it would be hard to receive someone at the level of Griffin’s.

None of the Clippers’ off-season signings have worked out. Josh Smith was traded to Houston, Lance Stephenson is on the verge of being traded and Paul Pierce hasn’t been able to match his production from Washington last season.

Chris Paul remains one of the best leaders and point guards in the league but he can’t get it done on his own. With no Griffin, the Clippers did win 12 of 15 but a lot of those wins came against non-playoff teams.

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The Clippers are one of the league’s most interesting study cases but it seems things are shaping up to be a collapse for LA.

5. The Utah Jazz will win 20 of their last 30 games
Last season, the Jazz went 19-10 after the All-Star break to make a furious late push, which ended just short of a playoff berth.

Expect Utah to have a similar run in their last 30 games this season, as they are finally getting healthy and they still play some of the best defence in the entire league.

Rudy Gobert is the key to Utah’s defence. When the intimating presence is on the court, the Jazz are a different animal, as his ridiculous length gives Utah the best rim protector in the league.

Due to injuries, Gobert has been in and out of the line-up all season long. Dante Exum is also lost for the season with an ACL injury, Alec Burkes is still hurt and Derrick Favours has missed time. Despite this shocking run of injuries, Utah have been able to tread water and currently sit in the final playoff spot in the West with a 26-26 record.

The All-Star break came at an unfortunate time for the Jazz, as they were heating up, winning eight of their last ten ballgames. Although there is no reason to believe that run will not continue once games recommence on Friday.

Everyone is healthy again, the defence is as strong as ever, now the only thing the Jazz need to do is get Gordon Hayward shooting better again. He is shooting the ball at just a 43.5 per cent clip this season, a decline from his 44.5 per cent last season. Once he heats up, watch out for Utah to go on a sustained streak and make the playoffs.

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6. The Washington Wizards will make the playoffs
The Wizards have been just one of a number of teams who haven’t reached their expectations this season.

Poised to build on their impressive playoff run last season, Washington were being proclaimed by many as a legitimate challenger to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ throne in the Eastern Conference.

Injuries, poor defence and 51 games later, the Wizards are 23-28 and 3.5 games out of the playoffs in the improved, but still not great, Eastern Conference.

A number of teams have jumped the Wizards in the playoff chase, such as the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons, but Washington will get on a run in the season’s stretch run and make a successful late playoff push.

Washington’s lack of success this season is no fault of John Wall.

He has been tremendous this season, averaging 20 points, 9.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game and doing everything he possibly can to help them get over the hump.

Similar to the Jazz’s situation, injuries have plagued the Wizards thus far. Bradley Beal, Kris Humphries, Nene and Drew Gooden, rotational members for coach Randy Wittman, have all missed fair amounts of time.

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Despite the injuries, though, there is still no denying Washington have been major disappointments this season. Yet they simply have way too much talent to miss the playoffs.

Wall has played like a man possessed all season, Beal will re-find his shooting touch and Marcin Gortat will continue to fly under the radar as one of the NBA’s best centres, which will help the Wizards go on a run and make the playoffs, where they have the potential to make some noise.

7. Kevin Love averages 20 points and 10 rebounds over final 30 games
Ever since Tyronn Lue moved over a chair to become head coach of the Cavs, he has stressed the importance of getting Love involved more on the elbow, where he is most comfortable.

Many question the fit of Love in Lue’s new up-tempo style he wants Cleveland playing and those are valid questions. Love has never been known for his athleticism and he isn’t the fastest guy on the floor.

Where Love will have a huge second half of the season though will be when he plays with the Cavs bench unit, something Lue has indicated will happen more often.

With Love as the primary scoring option on the floor, Lue plans to implement an array of different elbow sets to get Love into positions on the floor where he is more comfortable and most effective.

Love has already had some big games under Lue – 21 points and 11 rebounds against the Spurs, 29 points and six rebounds against the Pistons and 21 points and 11 rebounds against the Suns.

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All of these performances have come with Lue admitting Cleveland still aren’t fully accustomed with the Love-elbow playbook.

Love has always had an awkward fit ever since being traded to Cleveland in 2014 but expect him to finally put up big numbers on a consistent basis over the final 30 games.

8. Stephen Curry hits 15 threes in a game
This one really doesn’t need much explanation. Curry is the world’s greatest shooter and he is affecting the game on offence on Michael Jordan, Bernard King, Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant type levels.

The way he can simply just silence a road crowd and rip the opposing team’s heart out with his jumper is incredible. The MVP has had some amazing performances from the three-point arc this season, most recently his 11 made threes against the Wizards.

Bryant and Donyell Marshall currently hold the record for most made threes in a game with 12. Curry will smash that before season’s end. Not much more explaining needs to be done.

9. Kemba Walker re-finds his November shooting touch
The Hornets have been able to stay in the playoff chase this season, despite Michael Kidd-Gilchrist suiting up in just seven games.

Walker has been the reason why Charlotte have withstood Kidd-Gilchrist’s absence, along with the tumultuous year Al Jefferson is going through.

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Walker is putting up 20.5 points per game this season but is just shooting the ball at a 42.3 per cent clip. In the month of November, though, Walker was red hot, holding an outstanding field goal percentage of 48.3 per cent.

Charlotte have been inconsistent since their hot start and are by no means locks to make the playoffs. The recent acquisition of Courtney Lee should help but for them to have the chance to win their first playoff game since reentering the league in 2004, Walker will need to find an upswing in his shooting efficiency.

If it weren’t for the number of star point guards in the East, Walker would have been an All-Star this season. He has been that good and expect him to recreate that magical shooting run he had in November over the Hornets’ final 29 ballgames.

10. Paul Millsap finishes the season averaging at least 18-8-3-1-1
It is tough to classify this one as a bold prediction since Millsap is already playing at a level that would allow him to finish the season with this stat-line.

The fantasy gem is currently putting up 17.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.4 blocks per game and with the Hawks threatening to trade away cornerstones Jeff Teague, Al Horford and Kyle Korver, it would open up greater opportunities for Millsap to stuff the stat sheet.

Millsap has always been one of the most under-appreciated All-Stars in the league and this season is no different. There are only a rare number of power forwards in the NBA that can affect the game in the variety of different ways as Millsap.

No other player in the league is averaging at least 18-8-3-1-1 and this should speak of Millsap’s unique blend of scoring, rebounding, passing and making a difference on the defensive end.

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Atlanta haven’t been the world-beating team from last season but they still find themselves as one of the East’s best teams and Millsap is a huge part of that.

There is no reason to suggest Millsap will slow down so expect him to finish the season with one of the most impressive stat-lines in the league.

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