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This long weekend, the National Rugby Championship reaches the midpoint of its season, with four rounds played, and four more to come after this one. And already, it looms as the tipping point for a few teams.
This time last year, I was making the first of many mentions of the 2016 season being the closest of the three played, but just a month into the 2017 edition, it looks like that has been eclipsed.
The Fijian Drua sit five points clear on top of the table, on the back of three really good wins in three weeks, but behind them it’s becoming a proper logjam.
Just two points separate Queensland Country in second and Brisbane City in sixth place; the bottom three teams have us one point between them, and indeed, there are only six points separating the eight Australian sides trailing the flying Fijians.
But within that chase-pack there are a couple of teams effectively entering ‘must win’ territory.
Perth and Canberra, for example, have nearly identical records after four games: two wins, two losses, respective differentials of +13 and +12, both with 21 tries for and 19 against, two bonus points, and ten competition points each.
Yet despite the thumping at the hands of the Drua last weekend, and that they even lost to Canberra in Round 2, Perth is playing the far better rugby and still look finals-bound.
Canberra, on the other hand, look vulnerable. They should have put NSW Country away last weekend, or at the very least done enough to hold them off, but they couldn’t do either.
Now, they face the prospect of opposing a red-hot Fiji, with the only real evidence in their favour being that the game is in Canberra. If there is one possible straw-clutching chink in the Drua’s armour, it’s that they possibly aren’t used to the travel component of a competition like this. Possibly. Maybe.
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The Vikings suffered a blow this week, with confirmation that workhorse flanker Ben Hyne has damaged both a medial and anterior cruciate ligament in that horrible incident late in last week’s game, and is facing a long stint on the sidelines.
Canberra now have to find someone else capable of making upwards of 20 tackles a game, while going seemingly unnoticed – and that’s not even remotely as simple as it sounds.
Regardless, if they drop a third game, they would have to win all three of their remaining matches, and even then might need things to go their way to finish in the top four.
As it currently stands, teams with five wins could miss the top four with such a tight mid-table.
The Greater Sydney Rams are in a similar boat to Canberra, but the bye this weekend could be both their saving grace and the start of a ‘squeaky bum’ run home.
The following week, the Rams face Fiji in Sydney, and then have the two Queensland teams and Canberra to finish. Depending how results go this weekend, particularly for the teams in that mid-table group of five teams, the Rams could possibly drop one game on the run home or need to win all four.
Brisbane City are the other vulnerable side, but they at least have a game in hand.
City are one of only three teams – along with Fiji and Queensland Country – who can finish the season with more than 30 points, and so their position might not be quite so tenuous as the Vikings and Rams, but the concern is whether the type of rugby they’re playing is consistent enough to challenge.
We’ll find out a fair bit about City this weekend in Perth, and the rumoured return of Karmichael Hunt will certainly make a difference; more so if Quade Cooper slots back in as well.
Sportography
For those below these teams – the Sydney Rays, NSW Country and Melbourne – a slow start means everything is effectively must-win.
What’s really interesting about the competition this year is that we probably shouldn’t see any wins for these three teams as upsets from here. Any team can beat anyone in 2017, and the five rounds ahead should be just as unpredictable as the first month of the NRC.
Friday
7.30pm (AEST): Canberra vs Fiji; Viking Park, Canberra – Live on Fox Sports 501
Saturday
3pm (AEST): Queensland Country vs Melbourne; Bond University, Gold Coast – Live streamed
Sunday (Daylight savings begins 2am)
5pm (ADST): Perth vs Brisbane City; McGillivray Oval, UWA, Perth – Live streamed
Monday
3pm (ADST): NSW Country vs Sydney; Simon Poidevin Oval, Goulburn – Live on Fox Sports 501
Greater Sydney have the bye.
Ladder
Fijian Drua 15
Queensland Country 10
Perth Spirit 10
Canberra Vikings 10
Greater Sydney Rams 9
Brisbane City 8
Sydney Rays 5
NSW Country Eagles 4
Melbourne Rising 4
Tips
One from three again last week, but I’m claiming the moral victory after suggesting the case for tipping against me was strong.
This weekend, Fiji have too many points in them for Canberra; Queensland Country to solidify their top-four spot; Perth should be too strong for Brisbane City, despite the Cooper-Hunt combination; and NSW Country to finally hit their straps in Goulburn.
Enjoy your NRC rugby long weekend.