The St George Illawarra Dragons have fumbled and bumbled their way into the finals, but they will be put to the test with their season on the line when they travel north to face the Brisbane Broncos in the final game of the opening week.
The two teams might be separated by 1000 kilometres, but this has become one of the biggest rivalries in the NRL.
It’s been that way ever since the Broncos defeated the then St George Dragons in the 1992 and 1993 grand finals back-to-back.
Coming into the game, a vast majority believe this is the easiest game of the first weekend to tip, with the Broncos coming in as heavy favourites. Certainly, the betting odds would back that statement up.
Yet, it may be anything but. A trip to Brisbane is never easy, but with the Dragons getting Gareth Widdop back in the fold, they will be hoping they can turn around their shocking second half of the season.
Just a few short months ago, the Dragons looked like world-beaters. Sitting at the top of the table, their collapse to finish seventh and lose six of their last nine games was nothing short of horrendous.
It’s not the first time it’s happened either, which is more frustrating for Dragons fans after they went within a match of the finals last year, crumbling for a similar position under coach Paul McGregor.
There is plenty to fix for the Dragons, and while they have been ordinary, the Broncos may have actually turned a corner in the weeks leading up to the finals.
One of their key issues throughout the season has been consistency and being able to produce 80 minutes of high-qualify footy week in and week out.
With their forwards rolling, Anthony Milford in form and their youngsters standing up though, the Broncos have won three straight heading into the finals. It’s been reassuring to watch them get their defence right after a pair of awful performances against the Bulldogs and Cowboys during Round 21 and 22.
If that defence continues to strangle the life out of their opposition, a Dragons attack with seemingly no answers to other defences are going to struggle. Big time.
When the sides faced off earlier this year in the opening round of the season, it was the Dragons taking a handy win at Kogarah, so there will be revenge on the mind for the hosts in this one as well.
If there has ever been a deceiving ground record, it’s this one. The Dragons have won six of their 17 games at Lang Park, but scarily, have lost all of their last ten at the venue, dating back to a heartbreaking semi-final loss in 2009, when the Dragons won the minor premiership but were bounced out in straight sets.
As mentioned, the Dragons won their game earlier this year, but it was their first victory over the Broncos since 2015. In fact, counting the win earlier this year, the visitors have only won 2 of their last 14 matches against Wayne Bennett’s side.
Overall record: Played 38, Broncos 23, Dragons 15
Last meeting: Round 1, 2018 – Dragons 34 defeat Broncos 12 at Jubilee Oval, Kogarah
Last five: Broncos 4, Dragons 1
Record at venue: Played 17, Broncos 11, Dragons 6
Record in finals: Played 4, Broncos 3, Dragons 1
Brisbane Broncos
1 Darius Boyd (c), 2 Corey Oates, 3 James Roberts, 4 Jordan Kahu, 5 Jamayne Isaako, 6 Anthony Milford, 7 Kodi Nikorima, 8 Matthew Lodge, 9 Andrew McCullough, 10 Sam Thaiday, 11 Alex Glenn, 12 Tevita Pangai Junior, 13 Josh McGuire
Interchange: 14 Patrick Mago, 15 Joe Ofahengaue, 16 Korbin Sims, 17 David Fifita, 18 Kontoni Staggs, 19 Sam Tagatese, 20 Gehamat Shibasaki, 21 Troy Dargan
The Broncos have welcomed back Andrew McCullough for the finals after he missed last week with a nasty concussion. It means Jake Turpin has been excluded entirely. Josh McGuire plays his prefered position of lock, with Joe Ofahengaue back to the bench alongside David Fifita, who is replaced by the returning Alex Glenn. The man out of the side is Kontoni Staggs.
St George Illawarra Dragons
1 Matt Dufty, 2 Nene Macdonald, 3 Zac Lomax, 4 Tim Lafai, 5 Jordan Pereira, 6 Gareth Widdop, 7 Ben Hunt, 8 James Graham, 9 Cameron McInnes, 10 Leeson Ah Mau, 11 Tyson Frizell, 12 Tariq Sims, 13 Jack de Belin
Interchange: 14 Jeremy Latimore, 15 Kurt Mann, 16 Blake Lawrie, 17 Luciano Leilua, 18 Jason Nightingale, 19 Euan Aitken, 20 Jacob Host, 21 Hame Sele
In what is maybe the only ray of sunshine for the Dragons, Gareth Widdop will return in the halves alongside Ben Hunt, pushing Kurt Mann back to the bench. Euan Aitken is also an outside chance to return from injury, named on the reserves, but for now, Zac Lomax is in the centres after a solid debut last week.
Gareth Widdop of the Dragons. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Gareth Widdop’s back, but the Dragons need their forwards to fire for it to matter
Gareth Widdop’s return is the factor most Dragons fans will be pointing to saying they have a chance. That’s not strictly true, because they need improvement all across the park, but it is true Widdop has had a damn good season in the Red V.
Will he be straight back to his best? Who knows. No one can answer that question with any definitive certainty at this point, but if he is fit, the few weeks off may have done him a world of good.
Regardless of whether he is at his best or not, he needs the forwards to fire up and get the job done through the middle third of the ground for it to matter on the scoreboard after 80 minutes.
The Dragons forwards have, to put it simply, frankly and really quite nicely, gone missing during the second half of the season.
They were a feared outfit for the first 12 rounds, ripping in through the middle, playing direct football and ensuring teams were going to need to do everything in their power to crack the line.
Widdop, playing on the back of that, was superb. His kicking game and heads up vision set up countless tries for the Dragons, and if he can get back to that, the pressure will be on the Broncos defence.
Clutching at straws, maybe, but Widdop is an extremely good player.
Andrew McCullough is back and he must dominate the ruck
The Broncos weren’t affected too much last week by the injury to Andrew McCullough, who sat out after being hit in one of the most brutal tackles you’re ever likely to see the week before by Dylan Napa.
McCullough has had something of a rocks and diamonds season, but his level of play and the production he has out of dummy half is still critical to their success at the end of the day.
The hooker with a week off under the belt might be even more dangerous. His number one quality, of course, is the mountain of defensive work he gets through in the middle, but he adds plenty on the attacking end as well.
When McCullough went down injured last year, I wrote the Broncos wouldn’t win the premiership from that moment forward. Most shared my view of things, and while he hasn’t been quite as dominant this year, he has still been very good, especially in the last month or so, coming good with consistency alongside the rest of the Broncos side.
Given the impact of Cameron McInnes for the Dragons when they play well, McCullough dominating out of the ruck and winning the battle of the hookers – keeping McInnes quiet – could be half the battle in winning this game for Brisbane.
If the Dragons return to their early season form, they win
The problem with this point – it’s a bloody big ‘if.’
The Dragons early-season form had them as the best team in the competition by a significant distance. It really didn’t look like they were going to be shut down by anyone until the all too familiar rot set in and they went from hero to zero in the space of a month.
I’ve already talked about their forwards, but this is going to require a complete effort right across the paddock to return to their early season form.
The influence of Cameron McInnes, for example, out of dummy half has gone missing recently. He needs to be running the ball and sticking to his usual defensive guns, while the efforts of Matt Dufty have been pretty poor in recent times.
Matthew Dufty of the Dragons runs with the ball. (Image/Darren Pateman) NO ARCHIVING, EDITORIAL USE ONLY
Outside of the forwards, they are the two men who need to pick up their game the most for the Dragons to stand a chance against the Broncos away from home in a knockout game.
Brisbane’s halves need more control than flare
Against a side like the Dragons, flare and scoring a stack of points may not be the answer for the Broncos.
While there is absolutely no disputing that Kodi Nikorima and Anthony Milford – the Broncos’ halves combination – are both predominantly ball runners, one of them needs to slow things down and simply control the game for their side here.
The way the Dragons have been playing, the last thing Brisbane want is for them to make any sort of start and gain some confidence back.
While playing with flair, running the ball and trying things out of their own end might work once, it won’t work for the full 80 minutes, which will become a problem if they keep inviting the Red V back onto the attack with errors.
Instead, Milford and Nikorima need to back their forward pack, with players like Sam Thaiday, Matt Lodge and the youngster Tevita Pangai Junior to do the job, get it done up the middle and keep them on the attack. From there, it’s about winning the territory battle and controlling the game through a use of repeat sets and pressure.
If they can do that, the Dragons barely stand a chance, with the side likely to give away penalties and burn up in defence.
Speaking of burning up, and there’s no question the Dragons forwards have looked fatigued since Origin and not recovered. With coach McGregor not willing to give them a breather since, they have looked that way for months, and so if they are forced to play plenty of defence it could end the contest by halftime.
For Brisbane, it’s about control, not flare which will win this.
The Dragons have to travel, haven’t been winning and even when they have it’s been scratchy at best.
In 2015, they were called the worst team to make the finals. This, given their current form, is much worse. To go from minor premiers to seventh in the space of seven weeks is embarrassing.
Even with Widdop, the chance they are able to turn things around seems pretty remote.
Brisbane have won three straight heading into the finals though and if their season trend continues, they are overdue for a loss.
In saying that, they are the better team here, with the only thing likely to stop them being the Dragons returning to their level of play from the first three months of the season.
Alas, it looks unlikely.
Broncos by 12.
Date: Sunday, September 9
Kick-off: 4pm (AEST)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
TV: Live, Fox League, Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel now, 9Now
Betting: Broncos $1.28, Dragons $3.70
Referees: Grant Atkins, Chris Sutton
Don’t forget, The Roar will carry live coverage and highlights of each NRL finals match so you won’t miss a moment of the action.
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