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Patrick Dangerfield returns to the Adelaide Oval as the newly crowned King of Geelong, Collingwood and Fremantle look to avoid five more days of headlines, and Richmond’s Alex Rance returns to the field to face off against Sydney Swans’ Lance Franklin, the league’s Coleman leader.
What a week of footy, let’s see the best bets.
Adelaide versus Geelong
Brownlow favourite Dangerfield returns to the city where he made his name, and regardless of the outcome, the headlines on Saturday morning will all be about Dangerfield’s return to Adelaide.
Dangerfield has been averaging 29 disposals while leading the league with 7.4 inside 50s per game. He is still at $3.75 to take home the Brownlow Medal for those of you who fancy it.
The Cats are exceeding expectations in 2016, sitting 6-1 in second spot, while the Crows are playing better than their eighth position suggests at 4-3. The Crows have been agonisingly close in all of their losses this year, and we all remember the Round 5 clash with Hawthorn that gave birth to the “Free Kick Hawthorn” memes.
Josh Jenkins kicked eight against the Doggies last weekend in a 123-108 loss, but he will need a lot of support from Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts this time around after they went missing last time out.
The Cats are second for centre clearances with 15.1 per game, and will need to continue this domination out of the middle against the Crows who are the second highest scoring side at 113 points per game.
The Crows have won their last eight at home rather convincingly, although Geelong won’t mind the trip to South Australia, having won their last two at Adelaide Oval against Port Adelaide.
The away side are rolling here and look like a good thing to get over the line, particularly with the new King, who knows the Adelaide Oval inside out.
Best Bet: Geelong +12.5 @1.50
Feeling Lucky: Geelong 1-39 @2.65
Essendon versus North Melbourne
North Melbourne scraped past St Kilda with an 82-75 point win, again influenced by a debatable umpiring decision, which took their 2016 campaign to 7-0.
Essendon are heading towards their pre-season prediction, and if it wasn’t for Fremantle (that’s another story), they would be in 18th spot.
The Bombers took it to the Swans last weekend in the first half before succumbing to a second-half onslaught which ended in an 81 point loss. Professional AFL football is all about sustained efforts over four quarters, every week, and the Bombers just do not have the pedigree for that.
An interesting statistic is the Bombers are second for uncontested possessions at 268 per game and last for contested possessions. This clearly shows their inexperience at stoppages, and dare we say, softness?
David Zaharakis is in career-best form with 30 touches a game, but the Kangaroos will make it 8-0 come Saturday evening, in convincing fashion. Nothing more to see here.
Best Bet: North Melbourne -38.5 @1.44
Feeling Lucky: Essendon +47.5 @2.10
Hawthorn versus Fremantle
If you had asked us around March this year, we would have advised to pencil this one in for a few beers on the couch, it’s going to be a cracker! Those crackers have long since fizzled out, and we aren’t going to beat around the bush here, what the hell is with the Dockers?!
Sitting dead last in Round 8 we are all left wondering whether or not this is the slowest start to a season in history, or the worst decision to extend a coaching contract in history, with Ross Lyon now locked in until 2020.
Lyon sure knows how to burn out a team within five years with ultra-defensive football, just ask the Saints.
This may not be the blowout we expect it to be, but it will be a Hawks win, especially down in Launceston where the Hawks are on a 16-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Fremantle +53.5 @1.59
Feeling Lucky: Fremantle +45.5 @1.91
Greater Western Sydney versus Gold Coast
The only real fight the Suns have put up since Round 3 is the confrontation Gary Ablett Jr had with a spectator after the game last weekend. Can we just say to that particular spectator, that if you are going to have a crack at anybody, just make sure it’s not one of the greatest players of all time.
Anyway, the Suns have lost their last four after a promising 3-0 start to the season, while the Giants are celebrating following their first win in Perth last weekend.
The Giants at home will be a near impossible task for the Suns, with the Giant’s four-game winning streak including an impressive average of 132 points per game for, and 76 points against over that period. That’s a near ten-goal advantage average per game.
Tom Lynch’s 28 goals puts him second behind Lance Franklin (29) in the race for the Coleman, but he will need to kick one more than Franklin’s record of 13 to even give the Suns a sniff here.
Best Bet: Gold Coast +66.5 @1.61
Feeling Lucky: Not on your life…
Brisbane versus Collingwood
Driving to work on Wednesday morning I happened to come across the live Mick Malthouse interview on SEN, where he hinted that the Pies were heading towards a “dynasty” prior to his handover to Nathan Buckley in 2012. Take that statement however you want, but it does mean one thing, Collingwood’s coaching succession plan has failed.
The 2-5 Pies head to The Gabba in what is a danger game against a Lions outfit who are a lot better than their sixth position suggests. The Lions came within a whisker of the Swans in Round 6 in a 94-97 loss at The Gabba, and if they can get the majority of their talented list on the park, they should be able to make a contest all year. The Lions defence is one of the worst in the competition, and they also average the least amount of disposals at 328.33 per game.
Brisbane at $1.64 are pretty short at home, with the Pies floating out to $2.30, we think the value here lies with a generous the line for the home team.
Best Bet: Collingwood +16.5 @1.57
Feeling Lucky: Collingwood 1-39 @2.90
Richmond versus Sydney
The Tigers head into Round 8 with only one win on the board, which pretty much writes this season off. Alex Rance is back from suspension and gets to take on a raging Franklin, while Captain Trent Cotchin will miss another week.
Richmond were able to match the Hawks for three quarters last Friday night but completely fell away in the last term.
Sydney had an easy win against the Bombers and will be looking to grab a victory in Melbourne, especially as they do not get to play on the MCG that often. The wide ground should suit the Swan’s style of footy, and this could get ugly for the Tigers.
With Richmond’s back’s against the wall, this game could be a danger for the Swans with such low odds. However, with the class of Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery and Josh Kennedy around the pill, the Tigers will not be able to match it inside or outside of the contest.
Richmond will be looking for another ladder climb miracle, but will fall to 1-7.
Best Bet: Sydney -9.5 @1.35
Feeling Lucky: Sydney -23.5 @1.74
Carlton versus Port Adelaide
Carlton are going for four wins in a row. Something we were not expecting to say or hear this early into Brendon Bolton’s coaching career, but the crazy thing is, it could actually happen against the Power, who just scraped through in this same match in 2015.
The Blues looks faster and stronger than the Pies last round and were able to move the ball quickly and efficiently on the rebound. The Power have found some form recently with two wins straight against the Tigers and Lions, but will find this week’s game against Carlton a little harder, and will see how much they can climb out of the hole they have dug themselves. The Power are not looking like the team we saw a few seasons ago, but losing these types of games puts even more pressure on Ken Hinkley.
Carlton have not dropped anyone from their win last week, while the Power will have to wait another week for Robbie Gray to return.
The Blues are rising and could snatch another one on Sunday.
Best Bet: Carlton +24.5 @1.46
Feeling Lucky: Port Adelaide 1-39 @2.25
Melbourne versus Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs sit atop many statistic categories already this season, but the Demons are not that far behind. That looks to be the current trend for this year’s annual BCNA game, the Dogs are just ahead but the Dees are rising. They are two teams that love the contested ball and kicking goals.
The Dogs unfortunately lose another defender in Marcus Adams. That puts them now short four experienced players down back and we wonder how many holes can be filled with Luke Beveridge’s “play your role” ethos. Marcus Bontempelli once again showed he is on his way to becoming elite with a strong 30 disposal game against the Crows.
The Demons had one of their biggest scores in 12 years last round and have definitely found the goals. In their two highest scoring games against Richmond and the Gold Coast (44 goals in total), Jesse Hogan has only managed to snag one, which shows they have many avenues to score from.
The game is at the MCG which will be a first for the Dogs this season. Could the effect of playing outside be an impact? These teams squared off twice in 2015 with the Dees winning the outside contest while the Dogs got one back undercover. An interesting stat for Dees supporters is that all four of their victories have come when they have been tagged the underdog by the bookies.
Hoping there isn’t too much bath water being drunk at Whitten Oval, this will be a tight one.
Best Bet: Melbourne +29.5 @1.47
Feeling Lucky: Western Bulldogs 1-39 @2.20
West Coast versus St Kilda
In the first eight rounds, the Saints have had a crack at four of the top eight sides and have come up agonisingly short each time. Very close losses to the Hawks and Kangaroos have come off as honourable but for Saints’ fans, they want a scalp.
The Eagles have already shown some mental demons when travelling away from home. Looks like the Hawks really did a number on them in the 2015 Grand Final, but back at home this week, they won’t be sitting in the corner of the room rocking in the fetal position.
The Saints will be a little undermanned down back with Sam Fisher missing the trip, which could produce a field day for Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling. Not forgetting the enormous ground at Domain Stadium is hard to cover for most travelling teams, let alone two young midfields. Eagles to win.
Best Bet: West Coast -19.5 @1.31
Feeling Lucky: West Coast 1-39 @2.60
Good luck punters, may the umpiring be with you!
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