Completely agree, Highlander.
I’d take Cheika over Schmidt every time. Schmidt is excellent at phase play moves but the Wallabies’ attacking structures are just so much better.

David Pocock and Australia will only get better with more preparation time. I’d love to be able to say the same for Ireland, but it’s unlikely to happen. The main reason being Schmidt is unlikely to tweak his game plan and team too much.

It is fundamentally the same attacking game plan that Ireland have being playing for 5 years. The idea behind it is so one-dimensional, it’s beyond belief. You have an abundance of one-out carriers mixed with two/three prepared phase play moves off of scrums/line-outs. The only time you’ll ever see Ireland go wide is when they have a penalty/Knock-on advantage(E.g. Sexton against Wales and Murray against England) or when Ireland are playing a team at the end of their season(E.g. Argentina.) The decision to go wide is never an on-field decision. Every other tier1-nation has structures(either a 2-4-2 attacking formation in attack or a second playmaker) in place to allow players make on-field decisions, on when it’s on to go wide.

It takes far more than a week to improve attacking structures, so it’ll be personnel changes that will get Ireland back into the series. This is the team I’d go for:
1. Healy, 2. Scannell, 3. Furlong, 4. Ryan, 5. Beirne, 6. O’Mahony, 7. Leavy, 8. Conan, 9. Cooney(resting Murray), 10. Sexton, 11. Stockdale, 12. Aki, 13. Ringrose, 14. Conway, 15. Larmour,

I’m Irish and I completely agree.
I think the standard of the Irish team has been the same for the past five years. The difference in this year’s six nations was that the English were below their usual levels.
Ireland could easily have lost to Scotland and Wales in the six nations and would have if the matches were in Edinburgh/Cardiff.

Congrats Australia.
Nice to see a team that tries to manipulate space using footwork and intellect win.
Ireland’s attack is light-years away from where it needs to be, for Ireland to win a world cup.

Against the Springbok, in South Africa, Ireland showed an ambition to play a more expansive game plan, but since then it’s been back to playing conservative, dull rugby.
I don’t think this Irish team is in any better place than the last Irish team heading to the world cup, under Schmidt. Sure Ireland have slightly better players, but nothing has been learned game plan-wise from the last world cup. Before the last world cup, we also thought we were great, after winning a six nations containing 5 really poor teams.

Lastly, on the spectacle, that was really poor. This is solely Ireland’s fault, but you can be sure no hurling/AFL kid in Ireland/Australia will be taking up rugby after watching that. Comparing this to hurling is like comparing chalk and cheese.

I mean, maybe the experiment is to name the most unbalanced pack possible and see if we can win still win.

Carbery aside, there is very little experimenting. We know what to expect from all these players, as they have all played international rugby before.

Thanks Harry, box-kicking is really underrated, imo.

I get a similar impression of Murray, seems a really humble guy. He wasn’t always a star and was on the bench for Ireland under 20s in 2009.
One slight criticism of Murray is sometimes he is too “quick” to box-kick. At times during the pro14 semi-final, he was kicking away ball, despite clear overlaps.

Looking forward to seeing his future Munster team-mate next weekend, Joey Carbery.

I can’t see Eddie leaving England regardless of the result, Dennis.
In the hypothetical situation you have outlined, Eddie Jones would seem to perfect fit, though. I’d happily take Cheika back in Irish rugby, for one of the director of rugby jobs.

Thanks Nick, and congrats on the Pro14/Champions cup double.
There is big news breaking in Ireland that Dan Leavy might not feature in the first test, due to a niggle. That would be a huge blow and I would make the Wallabies favourites if it were true.
Murray Kinsella from the42: “Dan Leavy has been carrying a niggle this week, which could open the door for Jordi Murphy to come into the back row, while Jack Conan has been pushing for selection and Schmidt may be tempted to hand Tadhg Beirne a debut.”
So the options are:
(A)move O’Mahony to 7 and bring in Beirne/Conan at 6 or (B) leave O’Mahony at 6 and bring in Murphy at 7.
I’d be slightly worried about our defensive breakdowns with option(B.)

Never happened, Nick. Paul O’Connell and Irish players are too honest to commit such an act.

Interesting comment, thanks Darragh.
Not sure if Schmidt’s statements stack up. Other fans have noticed Ireland purposefully slowing the game down, as well.
Ireland only scored one try against England in last year’s six nations match and the ball-in-play time was the lowest that it was for any of Ireland’s six nations matches in 2017.

Good comment, Luke.
Ireland haven’t really been using the choke tackle this year but seem to always bring it out for the Wallabies.
It will be really interesting to see how Topou and Timu do in international rugby. Topou is a scary prospect coming off the bench.
Furlong, Cronin/Scannell, Hendo, Ryan, Leavy and Stander will be heavy carriers for Ireland.

Thanks Corne, really good summary.
Completely understand the annoyance around sealing off the ball. I’m just looking for any sort of consistency from refs at the breakdown, at this stage. Some referees seem to have no issue or are completely oblivious to tacklers rolling into the path of the attempted clearers or making no attempt to roll away. This inevitably leads to players sealing off and if the referee favours the defensive team unwatchable rugby, see Champions cup final.

As a side note, good luck to your Springboks against England. The second-row battle will be interesting, as that is the one area where England will feel they have an advantage. Really hope RG Snyman can translate his super rugby form into International rugby.

Cheers Machooka.
Should be a cracker of a series. Would love to be in Australia for the series, but instead I will be in Spain sipping on Champagne.
Talking of Champagne, some champagne company needs to get in and sponsor the The Roar. It seems like every article I’ve read on the The Roar has had some reference to champagne in the comments.

Schmidt has definitely identified this, Neutral. He said as much after the Wales’ game in the six nations “We can’t afford to keep conceding three tries a game.” http://www.the42.ie/joe-schmidt-ireland-defence-scotland-3875050-Feb2018/

Agree, bluesfan.
Ireland have had a real problem with width in defense for a long time. It’s probably easier said than done, but even from scrum time, I don’t understand why players can’t just stand 1 meter further back from each other. Fair enough if the opposition have a narrow attack, but it seems like Ireland always give up easy meters because of this lack of width. Teams just have to give one wide pass from an offensive scrum and the Irish defense is left drifting across.

Genia’s fitness and exits will be key, Sinclair. It might not be a bad idea to run it from everywhere against what will be a tiring, narrow defense.
The breakdown point is interesting. I feel like there is very little consistency between any of the referees’ interpretation of the ruck in the Northern Hemisphere. A game refereed by Romain Poite is almost a different sport to games refereed by Wayne Barnes. Poite demands a clear release, full support of body weight and tacklers to fully rollaway before competition is allowed at the breakdown. Barnes and Owens seem to give a lot of 50-50 calls to the defensive team at the breakdown.

It’s close Fionn, but I’d go Leavy, at the moment. Leavy is having the more impactful breakdown and carrying contributions. Against England Leavy made 11 carries and beat two defenders. He also made 15 tackles. I actually think O’Brien’s future lies at 8, as he get’s older and there is huge competition for the 7 jersey.

Pocock vs Leavy should be a fun battle.

Big fan of these analysis pieces, thanks Nick.
Kepu was lucky not to get caught for the pull back in the first clip.
Ireland under Schmidt, often use very similar moves which use “decoy drives.” The players seem to have more freedom in the above moves though, which makes them more effective, imo.
Like Taylorman said, there is a level unpredictability to Australia and flair in attack, that worries me as Irish rugby fan.

Hi Neutral, I’m probably on my own here, in really liking Cheika. There are some really excellent players in the Australia, but considering how badly the Australian teams have been doing in super rugby, I don’t think their results under Cheika have been awful. Yes he’s made some terrible selection decisions, but even Ireland’s great coach, get’s heat for some selections.

To be honest, I don’t think Australia had any right to beat New Zealand the last few times they have, considering the respective squads and super rugby records. I’d take Cheika in a heartbeat, at Munster or Ireland.

I have absolutely no idea, Fionn. I think Australia has a far, far more threatening backline. Also, as much as I like Andy Farrell’s defense, if there is one team that is suited to it, it’s Australia. Teams that have beaten Ireland recently(Scotland&Wales), put huge width on the ball, very early. I’m going to sit on the fence and say a high scoring drawn series, with a test and a half a piece.

Agree. It will probably come down to two from Roux,Thornbury and Dillane for the last two lock spots, to join Toner, J.Ryan and Beirne.

You’d imagine Best and Cronin will tour if fit. Scannell could be third choice, but he has had an injury-wrecked season and is currently out injured again. So another three way fight between Tracy, Herring and Delahunt, maybe.

Hard to disagree with your team, Fionn.

Leavy is an excellent player and I’d back him against pretty much any other 7 in world rugby at the moment, bar Pocock.

For me, James Ryan would be the first name on the combined team sheet. Not sure if there is much hype about him down South, but we are pretty excited in Ireland. He is a 21 year-old tighthead lock and he has yet to lose a game of professional rugby. 20 games(including 8 games for Ireland) and a man-of-the match display against Racing in the Champions cup final. There isn’t nearly as much hype around him as there was for Itoje’s run, but I’d rate him as a significantly better player. I think Itoje is world class, but Ryan has been the well on top, the two times the players have clashed this season.

Another player with A LOT of hype around him is Tadhg Beirne. He is a second rower that is pockock-esqe at the breakdown. He has won 40 turnovers(Setting the new record for “most turnovers in a season.”) in the pro14 and also won the most amount of turnovers in the champions cup.

I would say Timu is quite a bit away from making a combined XV. Jack Conan and Rhys Ruddock are elite ball carriers and would have kept Fardy out the Leinster 6 jersey, if not for injury. I would say Timu is more in line with Connacht’s Sean O’Brien, Nick Timoney and Max Deegan(Player of the Tournament at the 2016 World Rugby Under 20 Championship) as really talented young players, that haven’t really proven themselves at a higher level, yet.

23 players for a tour with provincial matches is impressive. They did have the benefit of no All-Ireland League, though.

There were some legendary Irish players on that 1979 tour. Like you said above, Tony Ward was a superstar. Moss Keane was always a legendary figure(with his GAA background) in my house growing up. His autobiography, written by Billy Keane is a really witty and interesting read.

It would be good to see Cooney get a chance. Perfect partner for Carbery, considering his kicking and game management. Gavin Thornbury is a huge man(Height: 2.04 m, Weight: 117 kg) and could fill the tighthead lock position if selected. Keane and Dillane didn’t seem to get on too well, but Thornbury was the mainstay in the Connacht engine room with Dillane and Roux rotating.

Considering Ireland’s relative lack of depth at hooker, I think Delahunt is an interesting call. If there are two Connacht locks touring(potentially three) it might make sense to give Delahunt a go over the likes of Tracy and Herring.

Excellent article, Derm.
Enjoyed the history review, as well. I think quite a lot of Southern Hemisphere folk will get a shock when they see Beirne and James Ryan in action for the first time. Henderson and Farrell are out injured, I’m pretty sure. Schmidt always seems to throw in some selection grenade as well. Roux, Dil;ane, J.Ryan, Herring, Diack, Heffernan all seemed like pretty random inclusions at the time, they made their International debuts. Who will be the bolter this time? Maybe a Johnny McPhillips, Shane Delahunt, Gavin Thornbury, Ross Byrne or even JJ Hanrahan after a good game in the pro 14 semi finals.