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I probably didn’t convey my point well enough. The England v South Africa match is in week 5 of the internationals. In week 4 South Africa play Italy while England play New Zealand. I think South Africa will have an easier run into week 5 and am tipping them to beat England.
While England will be aiming to win both matches my guess is that their focus and energy will be on achieving a win against New Zealand.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
I look forward to reading an article from you that does not adopt a negative view.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
Which is a more accurate indicator of a teams performance, ranking points or % win rate? If Dave Rennie has improved the Australian number of ranking points from 2021 to 2022 is this a better performance indicator than his win/loss ratio?
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
Does Australia have more of an advantage playing against New Zealand at Eden Park than Ireland? No, probably less so psychologically. The magnitude of the variables of time zones and weather differences may become less when competing against a neighboring opponent however I would counter that with the hypothesis that neighboring opponents play against each other a lot more and past performance creates mind games impacting a teams performance. Eddie Jones, no doubt, is across this.
Under the rankings system the home side receives a 3 point home advantage. This seems reasonable and creates some interesting trends.
Argentina have been steadily improving since 2018. Their rate of improvement is second only to Japan. It was only COVID that slowed them down in 2021, otherwise the wins against Australia would have come a year sooner. I’m surprised Argentina haven’t been given better odds for their matches against Wales and Scotland. I really rate Argentina as a side.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
It’s possible, though England climbing to 4th and New Zealand dropping to 5th is more probable.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
Thanks Brett. It looks as though the only way Australia can progress from 6th position to 5th is that if England lose to both New Zealand and South Africa and Australia win the game against Wales.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
Yes the South African tour is really exciting. It’s realistic for them to win at least one game against Ireland or France. England will be close but they have a better run-up to the last game of the tour.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
And if South Africa score a win over Ireland this weekend they will reclaim the No. 1 position and Ireland will drop back to 3rd.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
I’ve reviewed the ranking system and yes, you appear to be correct. From what I understand the maximum number of ranking points you gain/lose in a match is 2. If Australia achieve a win over either France or Ireland they will be awarded two points which is insufficient to catch England who are ranked 5th. The up side if that the rankings gap is large between 1st & 2nd and 6th so that if Australia lose either match they will not have any points deducted.
For New Zealand if they win the match against Wales they will pick up 0.664 ranking points. If they lose they will be deducted 1.336 points. Either way should keep them ranked at 4th position.
The dark horse this week is Argentina. If they win over England they will be awarded 1.8 points which will see them jump up to 6th position and push Australia back to 7th. England, if they win, will only pick up 0.2 ranking points which will keep them at 5th spot.
The big matches for these Internationals in terms of ranking positions are England v New Zealand and England v South Africa.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
So if the Wallabies manage a win over France this weekend does that mean they become the ranked number one team? Or if they jag a win over Ireland do they climb to second?
Conversely, if Wales, or Scotland manage a win over New Zealand this series does that mean that New Zealand drop their ranking to somewhere between sixth and ninth, in the second level teams? That feels about right.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?
Good luck Tania! Go well.
Brumby set for debut as Wallaroos name team for decisive World Cup clash
Good on you Brett, fight the good fight!
For me, as a subscriber to Stan I tend to watch all the Australian derbies but tend not to watch the New Zealand matches. There is a high unpredictability within the Australian matches whereas the New Zealand matches are entirely predictable, with the exception of the Blues games, where they lose the games they should win.
It was fun this year watching the New Zealand/Australian games in 2022 as the Australian teams were very competitive. I did however stop watching the finals after the Brumbies were knocked out, mainly because I knew the finals result already; Crusaders were going to win. Crusaders will win next year as well. Super Rugby is boring because the result is already known before the competition begins. Crusaders to win; easy pick for for whatever tipping competition your in.
For me the solution is simple; New Zealand should drop a team – the Crusaders. The 35 odd professionals from that team would be dispersed among the remaining teams to make them more competitive and to inject a degree of unpredictability into the New Zealand competition. This in turn will likely stem the tide of the New Zealand fans abandoning the game in droves as they have been doing so over the last several years due to the inherent predictability. Supporters from both New Zealand and Australia start watching the New Zealand derbies and broadcasting revenue increases which is shared equally between New Zealand and Australia.
The Super Ruby competition would therefore be far more interesting, far more competitive and generate far more revenue if New Zealand just dropped the Crusaders.
'Chop the Rebels'? The simplistic reaction that would do nothing to help solve Australian rugby's problems
Cheers
ANALYSIS: Dave Rennie is in the last-chance saloon - but a firing Will Skelton might help him get out alive
Hi Nick, thanks for your article.
I would value your opinion on Luke Pearce and Matthew Carley particularly how they will manage the breakdown. Will they favour the attacking or defending team?
Looks like we have Ben O’Keeffe for the Ireland match. It was always going to be a tough that one.
ANALYSIS: Dave Rennie is in the last-chance saloon - but a firing Will Skelton might help him get out alive
Probably, no doubt a Harry Potter fan. 🎾
'It's not lost on me': Dave Rennie reveals contract plan, and what he thinks of dismal win-loss record
rofl 😂 😂 😂
'It's not lost on me': Dave Rennie reveals contract plan, and what he thinks of dismal win-loss record
My daughter tells me your using the wrong emoji and that it’s a generation issue with OJ. He’s sub 30 and you, well, your younger than me because I use the word ‘hence’.
'It's not lost on me': Dave Rennie reveals contract plan, and what he thinks of dismal win-loss record
Interesting to know how many offside penalties the Wallabies are pinged for each match and hence how much of the target reduction of four penalties per match can be attributed to managing being onside better.
'It's not lost on me': Dave Rennie reveals contract plan, and what he thinks of dismal win-loss record
That would have been ideal. There are still five Wallabies matches next year not to mention any additional Australia A matches.
I hope he makes it.
The Wrap: Northern hemisphere turmoil provides an opportunity for the south. Or does it?
It’s a tough one isn’t it. If Hooper is back to his best then a backrow of Uru, Hooper and Valenti would be awesome. If Hooper withdraws would you be comfortable with a combination of Uru, McReight and Valenti as your starting line-up? A combined total of 35 tests and an average age of 24.
When watching the Australia A games you could hear Hanigan doing a lot of talking. Perhaps he is seen as more of a senior player these days.
Uru definitely deserves a shot. It’s a question of when.
The Wrap: Northern hemisphere turmoil provides an opportunity for the south. Or does it?
Agreed Uru was outstanding in the Australia A matches and he was unlucky to miss out. It might have been the case of prioritizing the quota of uncapped players to develop depth in other positions. Donaldson, Nawaqanitawase, Campbell, Gleeson and Talakai are all building depth in positions where Australia are currently a bit light on or are reliant on overseas players.
The Wrap: Northern hemisphere turmoil provides an opportunity for the south. Or does it?
Are you using Safari as your browser?
Wallabies squad: Rennie explains KB and Suli snubs, why Hoops is back but Slips still skips, and how Tahs won personal battles
Foley, Skelton and Robertson aren’t considered Waratahs anymore Jim.
Don’t worry though, Waratahs still have the second most players in the squad with 9 players.
Wallabies squad: Rennie explains KB and Suli snubs, why Hoops is back but Slips still skips, and how Tahs won personal battles
We’ve got three capped looseheads and three capped hookers. The danger is with the tightheads if Alan Alaalatoa gets injured. Then we have an out of form Tupou and an uncapped Talakai for cover. That would be interesting against France and Ireland (Scotland and Wales also come to think of it).
Not that much coverage in the centers although it’s probably mitigated by Petaia’s ability to play center.
McReight might not see too much game time this tour. Nawaqanitawase might be luckier.
Wallabies squad: Rennie explains KB and Suli snubs, why Hoops is back but Slips still skips, and how Tahs won personal battles
I have, in the past, looked forward to reading your Monday morning pieces and eagerly considered your views on the wrap up of the previous weekend’s happenings while digesting my breakfast. I acknowledge that your articles on World Rugby governance are accurate in their situation analysis and finding a positive review can, at times, be difficult. I also acknowledge that it’s probably outside your scope to suggestion solutions to the problems facing World Rugby. You have also written some very good articles on player safety and the long term impacts on head injuries.
I am however genuinely reflecting on what I read. Overall, my take on your articles is that they have been and are increasing in their negative tone. And yes, I used to read them and was a big fan.
Apologises if I have offended you.
The Thursday Two-up: Are world rankings a fair guide to current form?