I think you overestimate the talent pool in NZ KPM, just look at the Crusaders! Joe Schmidt is the best coach out of NZ since Wayne Smith, and that includes Hansen. He will do wonders with the talent he has, just as he has with other teams he coached like Bay of Plenty, Blues, Leinster & Ireland. I’m picking the WB’s to get very close the Bledisloe this year and if I could find somewhere to put money on WB’s beating the Lions, I would. Schmidt is just that good. My only concern is his teams play moneyball rugby, high percentage stuff that overlooks X factor. Hence the 1/4 final hoodoo (my hypotheses anyway!!) Please send link to betting sites!! Cheers, PS Great article Harry.

Agree CUW, recall watching Ireland last year thinking they were a Moneyball team, and so it turned out. Won most of their games but just couldn’t win the clincher when it mattered. Bye bye Sexton & Biggar, great careers marred by their attitude to the game. Anyone see that big French lock drag Faf over the ruck by his hair, hilarious as Faf was injured after it. Can England beat SA?? Surely they’ve got one good game in them.

Prob a good sign that Barnes is getting abused by both sides, Irish are livid about the scrum penalties but Porter was clearly in on the angle and the other one running around the corner was obvious. I thought he was inconsistent at the ruck, was waiting for turnover for Ardie just before he gave Whitelock’s, an even up I reckon as clear release? But just glad Nepo & Ofa weren’t on the field, there would have been a penalty or two in the last 4 min def to Ireland if either of those two were on.

And POM is a shit Fergus Slattery!! 😂

Agree TonyH, was there earlier in the year, fanstastic place. Go early, get a good park, we boated over and walked back. Funny watching folks trying to walk over too early, gate on island wasn’t yet open. Gardens worth the $.

French looked like they were enjoying themselves, AB’s looked like their game was a chore. Did anyone know the game plan? Why so many turnovers as there were no cleaners? Why kick the ball away so often, only to hold on to it in their own 22? Mate has a bet at 101/1 that AB’s won’t make it out of pool, cheering hard for Italy!! Come in Razor.

Agree OB, CC a poor defender who will leak at least one try and BB defence was suspect before the head knock. None of this has featured in much of Fozzies commentary yet he trots it out again about Shooter. If I was SS I’d be looking at a team in France to play for, been treated poorly throughout. Not sure why. DMac surprised at the call-up? What have they been doing at training, we’re not going to see many backline moves then?? Another Foster cluster. P.S. Got AU + NZ on multi – both at the line.

Pick them all in RWC year, AU rugby needs all of them to win and why not, do a SA???

Put your money on Reds to beat Blues, TAB in NZ giving generous odds.

Great analysis as always Lander. Rather than inconsistent displays week to week the AB’s decided to do it in a single game. Why does Richie M look so comfortable for the Saders but get the jitters for AB’s? (DMac for back up 10) What was TJ thinking, especially after the E half did something equally as dumb not long before? Did AS see red mist when he threw the bullet pass? Why play Frizzell and Taukei’aho from the bench? What happened to the much vaunted pick and go’s? All this to ponder over summer but I suspect next year will be the same. Top teams are all pretty close and I reckon the RWC will come down to cards and coaching. We’re way back in the field when it comes to those two aspects of the game.

Good summary as always ‘Lander, might hold back on the narrow channels tactic until its tried on England or Saffers. Players like Malcolm Marx will be licking their lips on such an approach, just waiting for the first tackler to drop the ball carrier then flopping over the ball. Refs need to make sure there is a genuine attempt for ball (the lift). Noticed more accountability on ball carriers to present the ball away from the jackal, giving cleaners just enough time. Jason Ryan and/or Joe Schmidt been doing some work there. Note to backs goal-line defence, mark your opposite number, every team AB’s have played this year have scored a try like that. Take a look at where Sevu Reece ends up – no-mans land. Shaun Stevenson best game I’ve seen him play since Silverdale under 8’s.

Another well written expose Highlander, spot on with those you’ve named, I recall saying to my boys watching the likes of Perofeta, RTS, Christie and Vaai that some of the dumb stuff they do in Super Rugby is going to catch them out at AB level and there it was. Worst thing for me is seeing opposition teams going down Clarke’s wing because they know he can’t defend. Look how many times Japan went around him as he bites in when he needs to stay out on his man. For all of them, they’re poorly coached, their limitations would be hidden if the team had a clear game plan and they all knew their roles in it. Didn’t watch live and probably won’t watch any of the UK games, I’ve heard all the Foster bollox before. P.S. Did you hear Schmidt decided the coaching outcome by going with Foz rather than Razor. Will be bye-bye Razor I reckon. Remember Robbie Deans?? P.S.S Give Frizzell a game a 8, do some damage I reckon.

Aussies won’t get a better chance than this I reckon. Who are the ball carriers? Foster has broken both Highlander’s rules so I can only imagine they’re hoping to hold onto the ball and not have to defend. Let’s see how that turns out.

Foster has broken both your loosie and outside backs rules Highlander, worth a wager on the Aussies on that basis. And at $4.40 to win, well worth a dab. About time for another 4-try hero from an Aussie, come in Cornellson II.

Agree JD, I’d bring Cane on at around 70 min. 😂 😂 😂

Just read your earlier article about Fozzies epiphany, I reckon it is Schmidt’s analysis that Foz is getting credit for, a bit like how he has been trying to get Schmidt on the field for some time, yeah right! Seemed bloody obvious to the rest of us!! Would like to see Frizzell at 8, Ardie 7, S Barrett at 6 and Guzzler & SW second row. Then watch some cleanouts and the backs run riot!!

Another well written piece HL (Is that you Bob?) and I believe Fozzy and the team owe you a few Speights for the kicking tutorial in last week’s article. Never understood the loose forwards on the wing trick, long may it be banished. Watched a youtube clip called AB’s best 40 min v Au in 2017. What was really obvious was how deep BB stood back then, gave outsides like SBW and Crottie loads of time, even DMac coming around the back had time and space. What happened? Did Foz think the flat backline attack of 80’s Waikato was going to bamboozle the opposition. Still think defences are able to slide too easily but noted a few double pumps to draw in the tackler. Just need that front runner aiming for holes ala NRL then giving it to them on the odd occasion (Reiko try). Starting to see it come together but 2 wins v AU a must.

I hate to say it but refereeing interpretations made a huge difference, several lineout drives and clean outs would have been penalised by last weeks ref.

For me the MOTM was Frizell, did all the hard stuff that allowed others like Cane, Savea & Whitelock to do their core roles well. Notice Richie M was looking for Frizell when he caught the kick off for the big cart up but Frizzell had gone off. Look where Akira is standing (not likely to cart the ball up off the kick-off). Richie forced to opt for either a rushed kick or what he eventually ended up doing, result = Bokke try. Heard Mexted say 6 was still open, I reckon Frizzell made it his own and confirmed everything I thought of Mexted.

Well written Highlander and watching Mark Robinson yesterday just confirms what a disaster NZ Rugby has turned into. My rambling comments as follows: I reckon NZR thought he might resign but he’s hanging in there, wants to be sacked and compensated. Foster should not benefit from the good work Jason Ryan has done with the forwards. Having a 6 that tackles and goes forward with the ball helps both the 7 & 8 do their jobs, rather than half of someone else’s as well. My back three would be Ardie 7, Frizzell 6 and Cullen Grace at 8. Did you see Grace taking on those Wgtn forwards on Sat?? Still think Reiko plays best on the wing but who to 13?? And definitely don’t think Foster has worked out an answer to the rush defense. Give Razor a crack now. Never seen the whole front row replaced after 30 min, that was the game right there!! Scott Barrett played his best test, future AB Captain.

I’m sure not even you should be happy with that performance Pinetree. Credit to the Reds for their spirit and excellent backline moves but Fainga’anuku and Bower unforced errors, Cody Taylor not scoring from the lineout drive, Jack Goodhue getting burned twice. Was a good win but not at true Crusader standards yet, which means not AB level. What has happened to Havili & Taylor??

Well written Highlander and spot on. Of all the highlights from that game that second try with the fwds doing the pick & go was by far the best. If Nepo had caught the ball his try would have been the second best. About time they went back to the graft, I doubt Akira has ever produced the work rate to match Blackadder & Papali’i in that game, and I’ve been watching him since his Grammar days. Don’t know what they were thinking against the Boks in game 2. Would like to see more lineout variation, still not enough deception for uncontested jumps. Scrum still needs work, dominant against Wales but I reckon the next 3 scrum opponents will be better.

Agree Tony, I wonder if Nick Bishop still thinks he’s the cats pyjamas, I thought he was awful last week and he confirmed it this week, typical whistle happy pom. Someone needs to say to him, it’s not about you mate, there are 30 other blokes on the field trying to play.

Good analysis, as always Nick. I couldn’t understand why the Bokke backline never looked set apart from set piece but LQB appears to be something they’re not used to. Before you laud these English refs too much though, I thought the Aussies got away with infringing the HB access to the ball in two of your turnover examples, something that would normally result in a penalty to the attackers. First was Hodge’s turnover (tackler impedes the HB) and second when Hooper intercepts Faf’s flick off ground. IMHO both were penalties to the Bokke. The HBs don’t help themselves by pushing defenders into the ruck or out of the way as I believe this is an action the referee has taken into account and then allowed the turnover and play to continue. LQB has always been the NZ approach which is why we enjoyed rucking so much. Wasn’t to maim (much) just the best way to keep stray hands, legs and bodies from stopping LQB.

I prefer to hear much less from them, best refs are the ones that just get on with it. This over analysis just leads to Rassie videos. Blow your whistle, make a decision, get the game going. Quite certain players wouldn’t mind. Win some – lose some, its part of the game.