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Queensland under Billy Slater have been nothing if not consistent. We might only have four games of sample size, but they have rarely deviated from their tactical setup – and why would they, given that they have won three of the four matches?
The dynamic of pre-Origin debate dictates that the Maroons are a constant and the Blues in constant flux. It’s NSW who chop and change, as if having an abundance of playing riches – perceived or otherwise – means that they can’t pick and stick like the Queenslanders do.
It’s not a totally worthless thought. Queensland do have a smaller talent pool to pick from and, historically, have chosen based on incumbency, whereas the Blues – not helped by the fact that 75% of rugby league journalists live in Sydney and need something to write about – are under constant pressure to rip up and start again.
The incumbency argument is an interesting one going into this game. Generally, when teams win, they keep things as they are, but Game 1 of this year’s series wasn’t quite like that.
On a probability level, Queensland would lose that game most times. Much as plenty of people like to think Origin is some mythical beast outside of the rest of the sport, it isn’t, and a whole lot of hard data suggests that the statistical production of that specific match should have lead to a Blues win.
The Maroons could rightly point out that they won the big moments, and rep footy is often like that. But it would be a folly to rely on that as a repeatable skill. If the Blues get 54% of possession and 66% of the territory again, they’ll probably win.
This does give Slater food for thought. As much as his side won, they didn’t outplay NSW across the piece and it would be reasonable to expect the Blues not to be as profligate next time.
So what can he do to change the underlying numbers? And how can he contend with the alterations that Brad Fittler has made? Let’s dive deep.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Queensland like to claim not to be bothered about the other team, but they should be worried about Mitchell Moses.
As much as Fittler insisted that nothing much had changed in his team, they’ve swapped two of their four spine members around, with serious knock-on effects to the way that they might play.
Mitch Moses, the new halfback, is a vastly different type of player to Nathan Cleary and poses a different kind of threat to the Maroons. Damien Cook and Reece Robson, too, are a totally different proposition around the ruck.
The big issue for the Maroons is likely to be dealing with the new number 7. Moses’ best two attributes are his long kicking and his short side plays, which Slater has to be very, very wary of.
Moses has the longest boot in the NRL and will be able to move his side out of danger more readily than Cleary, which will increase the burden on Reece Walsh at the back and, in particular, newcomer Xavier Coates on the wing.
Coates is not a good yardage carry and Walsh, for all his skills, remains a smaller body at the back, so if the Blues have any sense, they will empower Moses to kick long and frequently in behind those two.
It’s not just the technical execution of the kicking, either. A big knock on Cleary is his inability to change the tone of a game from behind – not necessarily his fault, as Penrith are rarely behind – whereas Moses is an expert at it.
Queensland were superb in Game 1 at forcing kicks from close to the sidelines, and at chasing hard on the inside to force Cleary into higher, rather than longer kicks. If the Blues are under the pump, they may well opt to go early, so Slater has to ensure that his back three are alive to that possibility.
Jeremiah Nanai. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
As mentioned above, Queensland have run the same attacking and defensive strategy in every Slater game, with good effect.
They’ll defend narrow: as our coaching analyst Brock Shepperd has noted, they were compressing the field to half sized in Blues yardage sets, while in NSW good ball, they’ve repeatedly jammed the second and third receivers to cut off the supply to the outside backs at the source.
When they have it, they’ll attack wide, with no fear about spreading early to their own OBs. It doesn’t need much explanation because you’ve seen them do it a lot now and it’s a fairly obvious tactic.
The question will be if it is sufficiently obvious for Fittler to have noticed it. The Blues have responded to the jamming once, in Game 2 last year, not coincidentally the only game they have won against Slater.
Then, Cleary kicked early in the game behind the jam and planted the seed of doubt in the Queenslanders’ minds. This time around, you can expect Moses to do the same. He’s never seen a kick he didn’t like and especially from the centre field position that he will likely get the ball at first receiver when the jam comes.
The alternative could also come in the attacking structure from the Blues. If they keep Isaah Yeo closer to the middle, that would see one of Moses or Jarome Luai playing wider, which makes the jam much less effective. Yeo is a great player, but he’s neither quick nor elusive, whereas both the halves are. If the Maroons fly out of the line and miss, they’re in trouble.
Slater know that he will likely get more field position and more ball than in Game 1, and thus greater opportunity to run the attacking shapes that we saw more fleetingly in Adelaide.
In this area, he can really double down. Reece Walsh is blessed with the speed to make a number on both edges, but the coach should be empowering him to hit left most often.
When the Maroons looked their best, it was when Cam Munster, Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow could line up optimally on Tom Trbojevic, who for all his greatness, is not a regular frontline defender.
Reece Walsh. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
NSW have switched Josh Addo-Carr and Brian To’o now, but that was a major issue in Game 1, as the centre often held when the winger dropped. If that continues, there’s plenty of hay to be made.
The plan will be relatively straightforward: bash the middles constantly, with the forward rotation tasked with keeping the rage going for as long as possible, then hit the shift whenever the chance arises.
It’s this policy that best utilises the likes of Harry Grant and Munster, who are pure heads up players, and the pure speed that Walsh and the Hammer bring. It’s also the strategy that best negates Payne Haas and Junior Paulo as attacking weapons, because they’re making ridiculous numbers of tackles per game.
Slater will hope that his plan continues to work. He’s right to trust it: not only is it currently running at a 75% success rate, it’s also largely the same plan that he learned at the feet of Craig Bellamy, with himself playing the role of Reece Walsh.
It requires really high level operatives in the spine to pull off, but he has that in Munster, Grant, and Walsh, plus Daly Cherry-Evans and Ben Hunt. Everyone else is window-dressing.
NSW are yet to come up with a consistent answer to it, so it will ride again at Suncorp. Slater trusts it, the players know it, and the bookies agree. It’s Queensland’s to lose.