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Last week I wrote about the race for the Coleman medal and how 60 goals would almost be enough to claim the prestigious award.
Growing up in era of superstar forwards who would top the ton season after season, 60 seems a mediocre total. Of course, it is anything but.
With a focus on defensive pressure and developing multiple goal-kicking options, it is becoming harder and harder for the big forwards to kick the bags of goals that supporters throughout the 1970s and ’80s became accustomed to.
These days we have to accept that 60 is the new 100 when it comes to notable tallies.
But while I acknowledge that kicking 100 goals in an AFL season is becoming increasingly unlikely, I baulk at the notion that it has become impossible. Somebody will do it again, someday, and it might be sooner than you think.
The magic number is 4.54. That is the average number of goals needed over a 22-round season to crack the ton, and it decreases if your team makes the finals.
Of today’s players, only one comes close to achieving that target – Sydney’s Kurt Tippett.
Since establishing himself at Sydney, the talented 27-year-old has built his form to the point where he must now be considered one of the most dangerous forwards in the competition.
If we take his six majors against the Western Bulldogs in Round 19 last year as a starting point, he has kicked 32 goals in nine games at an average of 3.5 per game. That includes last year’s semi-final clash against Carlton where he was injured in the first quarter and went goalless.
If we take that game out of the equation, his average jumps to four, which is also what he has averaged in his three games this season. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that he could increase that average to 4.54? All it would require is one extra goal every two weeks. Even in today’s playing environment, that is not insurmountable.
Nine games is a dangerously small sample, but it does illustrate what the big forward is capable of once settled and injury free. If Tippett can keep himself out of the medical rooms and string together a full season, then he is the most likely of today’s forwards to give the magical 100 a nudge.
Having the potential to kick 100 goals in a season is different to actually doing it, but as a key forward Tippett ticks all the boxes. He is big and strong, has good hands, marks well in a contest or on a lead, and is a reasonably accurate kick. This aspect of his game has improved since moving to Sydney, converting 67 per cent of his shots in the Harbour City compared with 58 per cent in Adelaide.
Also working to his advantage is his position within the Sydney team. He may be named at full forward each week but he is one of up to four tall options at the Swans’ disposal. His ability to rotate through the forward positions and work in partnership with Lance Franklin will stretch the capacity of most defences, making it easier to snap out of a lean patch or lose an opponent.
With Sydney showing no signs of weakening any time soon, supply issues shouldn’t be a problem either. Opportunities to score will present themselves regularly and it remains the big fella’s responsibility to capitalise on those opportunities, a situation he will relish.
What excites me most about Tippett is that he is beginning to rack up bags of goals on an almost weekly basis. Not counting the previously mentioned final against Carlton, Tippett has scored four or more goals in five of his last eight games, including two bags of six and two of five.
Maintain that sort of form over a season and the Coleman medal is yours to keep!
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