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Manly 2023 Outlook: Seibold starts under pressure as Sea Eagles seek to repair broken club

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11th February, 2023
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Manly is politics. Manly is drama. Manly hates you too. If only there was some really convenient metaphor for a long-running soap opera on Sydney’s Northern Beaches, eh?

The Sea Eagles will certainly be playing home & away this year as they look to improve on their shocking end to 2022, which started with a jersey and ended with them ditching a club icon in favour of Anthony Seibold.

We’ve only had one trial’s worth of Manly so far, making it difficult to predict what they might be like, but if the history of Anthony Seibold is anything to go by, expect it to be intricate.

I’m a sucker for that kind of thing so will probably enjoy watching them a lot, but crucially, it tends not to bother the end of the season too frequently.

At this juncture, a Manly team that wins more than it loses and plays with panache would probably be considered a success for year one of Seibold’s third stint in the NRL.

The key relationship will not be Seibold and Tom Trbojevic, as many expect, but Seibold and Daly Cherry-Evans: if the coach gets the captain onboard with the plan, then it might all work spectacularly well.

The usefulness of Tommy T at the back, and the ability of Josh Schuster to cement himself as a long-term option in the halves stem from DCE. He can get the ball to Turbo where he needs it, and he can do the stuff that Schuster can’t.

In general, the roster is better than last year’s 11th place finish and it’d be a disappointment to be there again. But, as seen last year, it can all go wrong so quickly.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JULY 16: Lachlan Croker of the Sea Eagles celebrates a try during the round 18 NRL match between the Manly Sea Eagles and the Newcastle Knights at 4 Pines Park, on July 16, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

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Path to the trophy

Manly probably aren’t a Premiership threat, but they could certainly be a nightmare for anyone that wants to be. If Seibold and DCE click, they’ll have two of the smartest minds in the game leading them around, with any number of attacking options available to them.

Any team that has a peak Tom Trbojevic and a fit and interested Josh Schuster shovelling the ball to strike edges of the standard of Haumole Olakau’atu and Kelma Taulagi can win games of footy.

This side is probably better than the one that finished fourth in 2021 and could get a fair wind that pushes them in the right direction. The centre of the field will ultimately be their undoing against the best of the best, but the potential for points is huge.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Danger signs

How long have you got? They could all fall out with each other again, like last year. Seibold could fall out with everyone, as happened at Brisbane. The CEO could fall out with the rest of the club who could start an argument in an empty room.

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What we learned late in 2022 is that no amount of talent can overcome blokes who don’t want to play for each other, and there’s ample evidence that such a situation could arise again.

There’ll probably be a few sides worse than Manly, but we’ve seen the movie before: Turbo injured, players looking elsewhere, coach losing the dressing room, infighting in the board.

The draw

Manly’s draw is hard to interpret. On the face of it, they could go alright: they get the Dogs, and Eels at Brookie with the bye in between, plus the Knights, Tigers and Titans inside the first ten.

On paper, they could easily have a positive record by the time they (inexplicably) give up their home fixture to the Broncos at Magic Round.

Origin is a bit of a horror trot for them, but it’ll be against other sides missing numbers, and the end is potentially soft, though it might not look like it by then.

The key three: Daly Cherry-Evans, Tom Trbojevic, Jake Trbojevic

Seibold fancies himself as a halves whisperer: when he had Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker at Souths, it went great, but when he had Brodie Croft and Anthony Milford at Brisbane, it did not.

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DCE is more than good enough to make this team tick, and if Turbo is fit for any length of time, he’ll be huge.

Jurbo is the third, less obvious lynchpin. He’s permanently underrated, but provides the sort of leadership that gets him picked for every rep team. In a side that might prioritise attack over defence at times, having a guy who tackles everything that moves will be invaluable.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Seibold treats Jake in attack. Hasler was convinced that he was a ball-playing lock, but he never threatened the line and often ended up a ball-moving lock, shuffling the attack slowly and innocuously along. This is probably the time to abandon that experiment, save Jake’s legs for defence and run the attack through DCE and Schuster.

Player under pressure: Josh Schuster

Josh Schuster is the big question for Manly. He’s told everyone he’s a half for years and now he gets him chance to prove it.

The word out of camp is that he’s slimmed down and can play 80 minutes, which is the bare minimum for a five eighth. He’ll get good ball off Cherry-Evans and needs to show that he can do something with it without all the nonsense that has often come with his play in the past.

When he featured for Samoa in the 6 jumper last year, there were moments of pure brilliance – but it came with a load of rubbish too. Needless kicks, showy passes and extravagant dummies are undeniably entertaining but there’s a time and place for them.

It’s great in the junior ranks, where Schuster was an undeniable standout half, but those opportunities are few and far between at NRL level. He needs to be sensible, run hard and take chances when they emerge.

Josh Schuster of the Sea Eagles makes a break.

Josh Schuster. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

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Hidden Gem: Ben Trbojevic

Manly’s youth prospects are very strong. There’s Kaeo Weekes, who we saw late last year, plus Gordon Chan Kum Tong, who looked good in the recent trial against South Sydney. There’s Samuela Fainu and Viliame Fifita, too, who impressed in that game.

But the biggest improver could well be Ben Trbojevic: he has stacked on the kilos in the offseason, graduating from a talented, gangly youngster to a potentially devastating option in the back row or centres.

There’s space in both the forward rotation, with Marty Taupau and Andrew Davey departing, and in the backs, with Morgan Harper and Brad Parker failing to nail down a spot permanently last year. This can be the year where Burbo emerges from the shadow of his more illustrious brothers.

Coach’s safety rating

No Manly coach is ever really that safe, given the extensive politicking that goes on, and the wave that brought Seibold in might well wash him away if things were to change above him.

But he’s new and will get time. Nobody expects them to pick up a Premiership in his first year, and he has the roster to at least do better than 2022. Were he to lose his job, it probably wouldn’t be because of things that happened on the field.

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Premiership odds

$21 at PlayUp, joint ninth with the Bulldogs and Raiders.

Predicted finish

Could be absolutely anything. If you told me they’d finish fifth, I’d believe you, and if you told me fifth bottom, I’d believe that too. I’m a Manly fan, so let’s be optimistic and say seventh.

Squad list

Round 1 predicted team

1 Tom Trbojevic
2 Christian Tuipulotu
3 Brad Parker
4 Reuben Garrick
5 Tolutau Koula
6 Josh Schuster
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Josh Aloiai
9 Lachlan Croker
10 Taniela Paseka
11 Kelma Tuilagi
12 Haumole Olakau’atu
13 Jake Trbojevic
Interchange
14 Cooper Johns
15 Sean Keppie
16 Toff Sipley
17 Ben Trbojevic

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Other squad members: Jason Saab, Morgan Harper, Karl Lawton, Morgan Boyle, Alec Tu’itavake (injured), Kaeo Weekes, Raymond Vaega, Ethan Bullemor, Ben Condon, Viliami Fifita, Zac Fulton.

(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

Season Draw

Round 1 v Bulldogs @ 4 Pines Park
Round 2 BYE
Round 3 v Eels @ 4 Pines Park
Round 4 v Souths @ Accor Stadium
Round 5 v Knights @ Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee
Round 6 v Panthers @ Bluebet Stadium
Round 7 v Storm @ 4 Pines Park
Round 8 v Tigers @ Campbelltown Stadium
Round 9 v Titans @ 4 Pines Park
Round 10 v Broncos @ Suncorp Stadium
Round 11 v Sharks @ 4 Pines Park
Round 12 v Raiders @ GIO Stadium
Round 13 v Knights @ McDonaldJones Stadium
Round 14 BYE
Round 15 v Dolphins @ 4 Pines Park
Round 16 v Eels @ CommBank Stadium
Round 17 v Storm @ AAMI Park
Round 18 v Roosters @ 4 Pines Park
Round 19 BYE
Round 20 v Cowboys @ 4 Pines Park
Round 21 v Sharks @ PointsBet Stadium
Round 22 v Dragons at WIN Stadium
Round 23 v Panthers @ 4 Pines Park
Round 24 v Warriors @ Mt Smart Stadium
Round 25 v Bulldogs @ Accor Stadium
Round 26 v Tigers @ 4 Pines Park

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