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After week one of the finals, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs have had their flag dreams dashed, while the Geelong Cats and Sydney Swans can sit back and relax this weekend after winning their respective qualifying finals against Collingwood and Melbourne.
For the Pies and Dees, their second chances come this weekend when they face Fremantle and the Brisbane Lions in their respective semi-finals this weekend, with no tomorrow for either side meaning it’s win or bust.
Both finals this weekend will be played at the MCG, with bumper crowds again expected as Victorian footy fans continue to get their finals footy fix after being starved of such opportunities in the past two years due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
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Second semi-final: Melbourne (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (6th), Friday, September 9, 7:50pm at Melbourne Cricket Ground
This season: Melbourne 16.21 (117) defeated Brisbane Lions 7.11 (53) at the MCG in round 15; Melbourne 18.7 (115) defeated Brisbane Lions 8.9 (57) at the Gabba in round 23.
Last meeting in a final: Melbourne 13.15 (93) defeated Brisbane Lions 9.6 (60) at the Adelaide Oval, first qualifying final, 2021.
It was only three weeks ago that Melbourne handed the Brisbane Lions a 58-point thrashing at the Gabba on a Friday night to all but secure second place on the ladder, behind the Geelong Cats.
That came after the Dees won their round 15 encounter at the MCG by 64 points, with Lions coach Chris Fagan pulling no punches in his brutal assessment of his team’s dismal performance at the home of football.
Now the Lions have earned themselves a third shot at the premiers after edging out Richmond in a classic elimination final at the Gabba last Thursday night, with Joe Daniher booting the matchwinner at the death.
Daniher’s heroics aside, Lachie Neale was also a clear best-on-ground with nearly 40 disposals, and he stands to be the x-factor for the Lions if they are to have any chance of toppling the Dees this Friday night.
They will have learnt a lesson or two from their two defeats to them this season, with Simon Goodwin’s men raising the bar in both matches which they won by a combined margin of 122 points.
Perhaps they extracted too much of their energy in their brutal beatdown of the Lions, as they then lost their qualifying final against the Sydney Swans at home last Friday night to leave their premiership defence hanging by a thread.
Norm Smith Medallist Christian Petracca is in doubt for the clash with the northerners due to a leg injury he suffered in the first quarter, while James Harmes copped only a fine for rough conduct on Jake Lloyd and so will be free to play on Friday night.
Lighting the fuse for the match will be the presence of Lions captain Dayne Zorko after he had made some rather offensive comments towards Harrison Petty in their round 23 clash at the Gabba, which reduced the latter to tears by the three-quarter-time siren.
(Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It would be no surprise if Zorko cops the rough treatment from the Dees faithful, who will be keen to see their side bounce back from their loss to the Swans with a strong performance against the Lions, and see their side return to the Grand Final the long way.
This will be the second consecutive year that the Dees and Lions meet in a final, after they met on neutral territory at the Adelaide Oval last year, with the former team winning that one by 33 points.
Though the Lions go into the match on the back of a longer break by 24 hours, the Dees should display their premiership qualities and set up a preliminary final showdown against minor premiers the Geelong Cats at the MCG next Friday night.
For the winner: A date with the Geelong Cats at the MCG in the preliminary final next Friday night.
For the loser: Season over, and for Melbourne an early end to their premiership defence.
Prediction: Melbourne by 32 points.
First semi-final: Collingwood (4th) vs Fremantle (5th), Saturday, September 10, 7:25pm at Melbourne Cricket Ground
This season: Collingwood 12.8 (80) defeated Fremantle 6.8 (44) at Optus Stadium in round 10.
Last meeting in a final: Never
Collingwood’s run of luck finally ran out in its qualifying final against the Geelong Cats last Saturday night, going down by just six points in an MCG finals classic.
While the players were understandably dejected after such a physical and enthralling contest, rookie coach Craig McRae wasn’t impressed by how his side slumped to the ground following the final siren, painting his players as “losers”.
Still, it was a huge effort by the club to finish fourth on the ladder just 12 months after plummeting to 17th on the ladder – its lowest ever finish – and had club legend Nathan Buckley walk away mid-season when it became clear he had passed his use-by coaching date.
The Pies will get the chance to bounce back when they face Fremantle, a side making their return to September after a long finals absence, in what will be their first finals clash at the MCG this Saturday night.
The Dockers overcame a nightmare start, failing to kick a goal in the first quarter and being as far behind as 41 points in the second quarter when they finally booted their first goal with eight minutes remaining.
Justin Longmuir’s side managed to carry the momentum from their much-improved third quarter into the last, eventually winning by 13 points in front of a crowd of 58,982 – the largest crowd to attend a Fremantle home game at Optus Stadium since round six, 2018.
The win has extended much-loved club veteran David Mundy’s career by at least one more game, and there is nothing the Dockers would love than to send him out with a long-awaited premiership ring which would be the crowning moment of a long and distinguished career.
Not only must they win three more finals, they must also overcome a poor record in finals played in Victoria, having not won a final in the state against a side not named the Geelong Cats (whom they beat in the 2012 elimination final at the MCG, and the 2013 qualifying final at Kardinia Park).
The only regular season match between the two sides this season saw the Pies win by 36 points in wet conditions at Optus Stadium; this was the first win of an eleven-match winning streak that would lift them into the top four come round 21.
This will, however, be the first time the Pies and Dockers face each other in a final, and Pies fans will not want to remember the last time their side played a Western Australian club in a final at the MCG…
…but they will have fond memories of the last time they faced a WA club in a final anywhere, when they won by a solitary point behind WA’s hard borders, after they had been labelled the “Dirty Pies” by the state’s media.
Eventually, the Pies should win through to a trip to Sydney where the Swans will await in what will be the first preliminary final to be played at the SCG since the 1996 classic against Essendon in which Tony Lockett booted the match-winning point after the final siren.
For the winner: A trip to Sydney to face the Sydney Swans in the preliminary final at the SCG next Saturday night.
For the loser: Season over, and for Fremantle a long trip back over the Nullarbor home to Perth.
Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points.
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