After a long, tumultuous and often draining season it all comes down to this.
It is undeniable and indisputable that these are the best two teams in basketball, and they come into this rematch of last season’s fantastic series firing on all cylinders – Tony Parker’s wheel pending – and ready to battle again.
In one corner we have the two-time defending champions, reliant largely on the best player of the generation and his two able sidekicks. In the other corner, we have the benchmark for NBA excellence over the last decade and a half with Hall of Famers on the bench, in the backcourt and at power forward.
The home court advantage sits with San Antonio, and you tend to think that might come into play as this series will likely go the distance.
So who wins the series, and why? To answer that we move onto the questions that matter and that will help to decide this series.
1. Is LeBron’s legacy at stake?
There is nothing left to be said about James. He can defend all positions, plays a guard’s game in a power forward’s body and has answered every question and every challenge thrown at over the last two, almost three seasons.
The last playoff series he lost exposed seemingly fatal flaws, but since losing to Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks he has learned how to win on the biggest stage and the rest, as they say, is history.
Coach turned commentator Mark Jackson, known for stretching the truth on and off the court, recently described James as a mixture of Michael Jordan and Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson, and someone the likes of which we have never seen before. Rich praise, but he deserves all the credit he gets.
Faced with what may be his biggest challenge to date, how will we judge James if he falls short? And likewise, how will we judge him if he can go and beat this Spurs team, probably the best team he has faced in his championship run?
While Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade and the others might help him out, Miami’s chance of winning this series sits squarely in the hands of Akron’s favourite son.
2. Is Tony Parker’s ankle a concern?
Last year’s finals series turned when Parker strained a hamstring in Game 4, and he never fully recovered. While the Spurs had ample opportunities to win in any case (to be covered in detail later), once Parker was hampered they were at a decided disadvantage.
If Parker gets close to 100 per cent it creates interesting match-up decisions for Miami, who are faced with the dilemma with matching up Parker with Wade or taking the chance on Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole shutting down the elusive Frenchman.
While Parker can be exploited defensively, his offensive expertise far outweighs his defensive shortcomings if his ankle holds up.
3. Can the Miami bench play a role?
While James dominated Game 7 of last year’s NBA Finals series, it took arguably the most clutch three pointer ever by Ray Allen to even get the series to the deciding game.
Along with Allen, the Heat will turn to Shane Battier and Chris Andersen to play roles with Andersen in particular likely to get increasing minutes against the Spurs skilled front-court of Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw.
When match-ups suit him, the Birdman remains an elite defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker and his ability to stay on the court and out of foul trouble will play a crucial role in the result of this series.
4. Is Tim Duncan the best power forward ever?
The best argument against Duncan being the best to ever play that position seems to be that he can be seen as a centre. That’s not the strongest argument, and when you put his statistics, winning percentage, longevity, success and sustained individual excellence up to support your case, it is as close to a no-brainer as a subjective argument can be.
In Game 6 of the recently completed Western Conference Finals, the Spurs allowed the Thunder back into the game with a late charge and as the game headed into overtime they could have been excused for having an eye on getting home for Game 7.
Enter Timmy, who outscored Oklahoma City himself with a low-post master class and ensured the aged Spurs could get some vital rest ahead of the arrival of the Heat for the Finals.
5. Is the coaching match-up as one sided as it seems?
On one side you have Erik Spoelstra, who was hired as Miami’s video coordinator in 1995 and has since progressed to an assistant coach and now a two-time championship coach. On the other you have legendary Gregg Popovich, the once-active member of the US Air Force and four-time championship coach widely recognised as one of the best basketball coaches in NBA history.
His ability to put a system around Duncan that allows for players to swing in and out without a drop in standards and performances is well-known, and he is famously as gruff and short with the media as he is brilliant.
‘Spo’ would seem to over-matched, but shouldn’t be underestimated as he has proven to be more than James’ bag boy or a token coach; some would argue that anyone can coach Miami’s Big 3 but his ability to match San Antonio’s ever-changing and flexible line-ups will be critical for the Heat’s title chances.
6. Can Danny Green repeat last season’s lights-out shooting?
Green made 27 three-pointers at a percentage of over 55 per cent in last year’s finals series which is historically brilliant, and could have been better as those numbers were 25 triples at 66 per cent after Game 5.
As Green went, so did the Spurs as 17 of those baskets came in their three wins. In Games 6 and 7 it could be argued that Green became a liability as when his shot doesn’t drop, his value decreases dramatically.
Not recognised for his defence, Green will need to shoot the ball well with the depth and flexibility sitting on the San Antonio bench.
7. Who will play the better defence?
For different reasons, these are the best two offensive teams in the NBA. San Antonio plays pure basketball at its best, thriving off an incessant wave of passing, cutting, screening and shooting.
Some call it boring, but others agree it is team basketball at the highest of high levels. Miami base their offense around individual brilliance and outside shooting, and when James and Wade are playing well they remain impossible to stop.
Both sides have developed their defensive games to hide the weaker individual defenders and should one side get on top in the series, it will be intriguing to watch the other side adjust before it is too late.
The individual defensive brilliance of Duncan, Kahwi Leonard, James and Wade will be put to the ultimate test in this series with offensive brilliance as far as the eye can see.
8. Can Kahwi Leonard and Boris Diaw impact the series?
Kahwi and Boris…sounds like a 1970s cop show or a Broadway musical but in fact is the Spurs point of difference. Leonard announced himself to the world in last’s years finals series and for a large part of the series was one of the best three players on the floor.
In a different system his numbers might look more impressive but his impact on the game at both ends of the floor makes him one of the better young players in the game. He will be asked to defend James, and maybe Wade and contribute offensively and will likely do so with aplomb.
Diaw was a key component of the Phoenix Suns “seven-second offense” in the 2005-06 season as a stretch centre, and he is now likely to start at power forward and play a huge role in this series.
Diaw’s skills have never been questioned, but his work ethic and conditioning have. Having got himself into shape and with a clear niche in the Spurs system, look for Diaw to contribute offensively and perhaps even replicate his critical 26 point performance from the series-clinching Game 6 Western Conference Finals win against Oklahoma City.
9. Do Miami have a mental edge?
Let’s get something straight – the Finals were San Antonio’s to win last season, and they choked it away in Game 6 by not doing what they do well, the fundamentals.
A missed Kahwi Leonard free-throw kept it as a one possession game and a missed rebound allowed Chris Bosh to get an offensive board and pass to Ray Allen to make ‘The Shot’. On the other hand you could argue that Miami haven’t lost a mental battle since being out-played and out-coached in the 2011 Finals.
For all James’ physical strength and Wade’s athletic prowess, they rarely lose the game above the shoulders. When this series draws to a close and the Spurs have their Game 6 moment will they learn from their mistakes?
10. Who wins?
Miami have had a soft run to the Finals, barely getting out of first gear unless they had to (late in Game 2 against Indiana and Game 4 against Brooklyn) or when the opposition were mentally shot (Game 6 against Indiana).
San Antonio had a far tougher first round series than anyone thought they would, reacted savagely against Portland and withstood an OKC-charged assault based on emotion (Serge Ibaka) and unworldly brilliance (Russell Westbrook) with a high-quality veteran performance.
Do you go with the home-court advantage or the proven defending champs? Can Miami become an all-time great team by three-peating or does San Antonio get a fifth ring of this remarkable 15-year era?
Only the Michael Jordan-lead Chicago Bulls and the Lakers lead by Kobe and Shaq have three-peated since 1966. Those are damning stats and for Miami to join that exulted company would be a truly great effort and stamp them as an all-time great team.
This series will ebb and flow, with blowouts and close games interspersed across seven epic games.
For all James’ brilliance he is yet to win a Game 7 away from home and that will stay the same as Tim, Tony, Manu, Pop and the Spurs win an all-time classic series in seven games with Duncan winning the finals MVP.
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