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Preview of this weekend’s National Rugby League round 20 games (times AEST).
FRIDAY
BRISBANE v CRONULLA at Suncorp Stadium, 7.35pm
Head to head: Broncos 24, Sharks 15.
Last match: Sharks 13-6 at Toyota Stadium (Rnd 10, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Broncos $1.40, Sharks $2.80.
Footy TAB: Sharks +7.5
It’s make or break for the Broncos as far as the top four is concerned, with a loss to the Sharks all but ending their bid for a home final. Brisbane have a chance to send a shudder through the rest of the competition here, with superstars Darren Lockyer, Justin Hodges, Peter Wallace and Karmichael Hunt playing together for the first time in ages. It’s a weird situation for the Sharks, who probably need another three wins to secure a home final, but a top two berth is out of their control. They need either Manly or the Storm to slip up in the run home to the finals.
Key: How will the big four of Lockyer, Hodges, Hunt and Wallace combine in their first game since round 12?
Tip: Broncos
PARRAMATTA v NORTH QUEENSLAND at Parramatta Stadium, 7.35pm
Head to head: Eels 11, Cowboys 9, Drawn 1
Last match: Cowboys 38-14 at Dairy Farmers Stadium (Rnd 4, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Eels $1.20, Cowboys $4.25
Footy TAB: Cowboys +12.5
How many last chances can a side have? After starting the season slowly, Parramatta have been unable to get back on track, yet sporadic wins have kept them in touch with the top eight. Three weeks ago the Eels only needed to win 50 per cent of their games in the run home to secure a finals berth. After a hattrick of losses, the equation is now five wins from their last seven games. Despite all this, they will go into this game as overwhelming favourites against a Cowboys side which has simply forgotten how to win. The 11 straight defeats is a club record and with the likes of Johnathan Thurston, Matt Bowen and Luke O’Donnell still sidelined, the light at the end of the tunnel appears very dim.
Key: The Eels struggled for attacking spark with Feleti Mateo sidelined last week. With the Tongan giant again out, can the Keating brothers step up and give halfback Brett Finch the help he needs?
Tip: Eels
SATURDAY
CANBERRA v GOLD COAST at Canberra Stadium, 5.30pm
Head to head: Titans 2, Raiders 1
Last match: Titans 32-12 at Skilled Park (Rnd 4, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Canberra $1.33, Titans $3.15
Footy TAB: Titans +8.5
This game has lost a lot of its lustre with each side’s star halfback not playing, Todd Carney under a club imposed suspension and Titans skipper Scott Prince out with a season-ending injury. With one win from their last four matches, the Titans are on the slide, and another loss here could see them bumped out of the top eight for the first time this year. Canberra will be relying heavily on debutant halfback Marc Herbert, but it’s how the club recovers from all the off-field turmoil this week which could determine their fate. The Raiders will leapfrog the Titans on the ladder with a win of 15 points or more.
Key: The battle of the rookie No.7s – Marc Herbert v Brad Davis. Herbert will have a big job to do on debut while Davis is still green with only five NRL games under his belt.
Tip: Raiders
PENRITH v WESTS TIGERS at CUA Stadium, 7.30pm
Head to head: Panthers 10, Tigers 4
Last match: Panthers 30-8 at Campbelltown Stadium (Rnd 4, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Panthers $1.70, Tigers $2.10
Footy TAB: Tigers +2.5
The battle of the big cats will have a big bearing on the top eight. A Panthers win and they could open up a three point break on those sides outside the eight. A Tigers win and they not only leapfrog Penrith, but keep the logjam at the bottom of the finals cut-off as tight as ever. The Tigers regained some of their mojo last weekend, with Benji Marshall claiming a pre-game viewing of his greatest highlights had spurred him onto a season-best performance. Coach Tim Sheens would be well advised to have the DVDs stacked up high in Marshall’s locker this week as well.
Key: Nothing separates these two sides, but if the Tigers halves replicate last week’s form, they may have too many points for the mountain men.
Tip: Tigers
SUNDAY
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS v MELBOURNE at Mt Smart Stadium, 2pm
Head to head: Storm 11, Warriors 8, Drawn 1
Last match: Storm 32-18 at Telstra Dome (Rnd 1, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Storm $1.33, Warriors $3.15
Footy TAB: Warriors +8.5
Riding high on the back of three straight wins, the the Warriors would have every right to go into their next match with plenty of confidence. Then they realise they’re taking on the Storm, who for the first time in a few years are actually in a battle to secure a top two berth. The loss of Billy Slater to suspension will hurt Melbourne, but when you’ve got the likes of Israel Folau and Greg Inglis still lurking out wide, there’s plenty for the Warriors to be frightened about. The Kiwis best hope may be some wet weather, but even that wasn’t enough when an Origin ravaged Storm side won 4-2 in last year’s match-up in Auckland.
Key: Defence – the Warriors have the NRL’s third worst defensive record, and against a loaded up Storm side, that spells trouble.
Tip: Storm
NEWCASTLE v SOUTH SYDNEY at EnergyAustralia Stadium, 2pm
Head to head: Knights 22, Rabbitohs 5
Last match: Rabbitohs 28-25 at EnergyAustralia Stadium (Rnd 16, 2007)
TAB Sportsbet: Newcastle $1.40, Souths $2.80
Footy TAB: Souths +7.5
It’s getting close to last chance saloon for the Knights, who scarcely deserve to be in this position having played some pretty good footy over the past five weeks. Still, all they have to show from that period is one win, and that leaves them needing to win at least five of their last seven games to make the finals. The return of Danny Buderus will help, but that’s been negated by the expected absence of Jarrod Mullen with a hip injury. Souths’ bubble burst last week, even captain Roy Asotasi admitting pride was all they have left to play for.
Key: With Buderus back, Kurt Gidley is relieved of the dummy half duties, which could make him a bigger weapon with ball in hand.
Tip: Knights
SYDNEY ROOSTERS v MANLY at SYDNEY FOOTBALL STADIUM, 3pm
Head to head: Sea Eagles 73, Roosters 37, Drawn 2
Last match: Sea Eagles 42-0 at Brookvale Oval (Rnd 13, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Sea Eagles $1.85, Roosters $1.95
Footy TAB: N/A
The biggest question here is – can the Roosters score a point against Manly? They haven’t been able to do it the last two times they’ve met, while the Sea Eagles have run up a combined 98 points in those encounters. No need for Brad Fittler to search too far for motivation here, with the Roosters’ top four spot also on the line. Much will depend on whether Matt Orford plays for the Sea Eagles, because Manly looked a little lost without their general last weekend. The versatile Steve Menzies moves into the No.6 jumper in place of the injured Jamie Lyon. This game will say a lot about the Roosters’ premiership credentials.
Key: Matt Orford’s adductor muscle. If the Sea Eagles skipper is missing or even half fit, the Roosters could spring an upset.
Tip: Roosters
MONDAY
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v BULLDOGS at ANZ Stadium, 7pm
Head to head: Bulldogs 12, Dragons 4
Last match: Bulldogs 30-18 at ANZ Stadium (Rnd 6, 2008)
TAB Sportsbet: Dragons $1.40, Bulldogs $2.80
Footy TAB: Bulldogs +7.5
Will Sonny Bill Williams show up this week? The Bulldogs are a different side with the Kiwi giant on board, as evidenced by their Jekyll and Hyde performances over the past fortnight. The Dogs will be without bench duo Ben Roberts and Lee Te Maari due to a club imposed suspension, Roberts’ demotion opens up a place for Ben Barba to make his NRL debut. Barba has been killing it in the Toyota Cup, and if he can transform some of that to the NRL, the Dragons will be in danger. After back to back losses the Dragons are sliding down the ladder, and another loss to their traditional rivals could see them slip out of the eight.
Key: Sonny Bill Williams’ back. If the Bulldogs backrower is fit again, the Dragons’ suspect edge defence could be in for a long night.
Tip: Dragons
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