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Preview of round three AFL matches

Roar Guru
8th April, 2009
5

Preview of round three AFL games (all times local).

GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD
Venue: MCG
Date: Thursday, April 9
Time: 7.40pm
Head to head: Collingwood 124 Geelong 89 Drawn 1
Last time: Collingwood 20.14 (134) bt Geelong 7.6 (48) R9 2008 MCG
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Geelong $1.30, Collingwood $3.30. Sportingbet: Geelong $1.35, Collingwood $3.20.
Summary: Premiership favourites Geelong are unbeaten so far, but have not been completely convincing in narrow wins over badly-undermanned Hawthorn and perennial non-finalists Richmond. Things will get even more testing for the Cats after losing No.1 ruckman Brad Ottens to a knee injury. Magpies lead ruckman Josh Fraser was in magnificent form in the club’s win over Melbourne last round, dominating the hit-outs and stacking up possessions. He will relish the prospect of taking on the Cats’ second-stringers. Collingwood memorably thrashed Geelong by 86 points in their last meeting, in round nine last year, in what was the Cats’ only loss of the home and away season. Their last clash before that was the 2007 preliminary final, when Geelong just snuck home against a Collingwood side missing Fraser. These two sides’ most recent game was last month’s NAB Cup grand final, which the Cats won by 76 points.
Key: Fraser needs to make the most of Ottens’ absence to give his club’s little men first use of the ball and reduce the effectiveness of Geelong’s vaunted midfield.
Tip: Geelong by 10 points

ST KILDA v WEST COAST
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Date: Saturday, April 11
Time: 2.10pm
Head to head: West Coast 20 St Kilda 13 Drawn 1
Last time: West Coast 15.13 (103) bt St Kilda 12.14 (86) R17 Subiaco
Betting: TAB SportsBet: St Kilda $1.30, West Coast $3.30. Sportingbet: St Kilda $1.33, West Coast $3.35.
Summary: St Kilda have won their first two games handsomely and are gunning for their best start under coach Ross Lyon. There’s a lot to like about the Saints at the moment, with their midfield in good form, their defensive pressure sustained across the ground and Justin Koschitzke offering a spark in attack. The Eagles are in a similar bracket, having dropped their opening game to the Lions after a good first half, but barn-storming to a 50-point win over highly-fancied Port Adelaide last week. Midfielder Daniel Kerr played superbly, ruckman Dean Cox was dominant and Mark LeCras continued his good start to the season with three goals.
Key: Home ground advantage could be vital to the Saints here, particularly if they can replicate the pressure they applied last week. Unless the Eagles can find another avenue to goal besides LeCras, the visitors might be in for a difficult afternoon against St Kilda’s in-form defence.
Tip: St Kilda by 20 points

BRISBANE LIONS v SYDNEY
Venue: Gabba
Date: Saturday, April 11
Time: 7.10pm
Head to head: Brisbane Lions 19 Sydney 18 Drawn 1
Last time: Sydney 17.12 (114) bt Brisbane Lions 6.17 (53) R22 2008 SCG
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Brisbane $1.45, Sydney $2.65. Sportingbet: Brisbane $1.50, Sydney $2.55.
Summary: The fitness of Sydney star forward Barry Hall looms as a key factor in this match. Hall booted four goals in the Swans’ upset win over Hawthorn. It was a match in which the club kicked their highest score since round eight last year, with the shackles coming off after they struggled to score at all for much of their round one contest with St Kilda. But Hall also strained his groin late in the game and with Sydney to test his fitness closer to game day, their attack could look a lot less potent. Brisbane boast plenty of forward firepower, with key targets Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw both in good form. But the Lions have struggled for consistency within their two games so far. They gave both West Coast and Carlton significant headstarts, managing to reel in the Eagles but just failing to do so against the Blues. If they can produce their best for a full game against the Swans, a midfield boasting veterans Simon Black, Luke Power and Travis Johnstone, and impressive newcomer Daniel Rich should give them an edge.
Key: If Hall does not play the Swans will struggle to kick a winning score against a Lions side that can kick plenty of goals.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 15 points

CARLTON v ESSENDON
Venue: MCG
Date: Saturday, April 11
Time: 7.10pm
Head to head: Carlton 117 Essendon 107 Drawn 4
Last time: Essendon 20.16 (136) bt Carlton 15.11 (101) R13 2008 MCG
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Carlton $1.22, Essendon $4.00. Sportingbet: Carlton $1.25, Essendon $4.00.
Summary: Carlton will bring back Nick Stevens from suspension to add further class and depth to a midfield that has looked as impressive as any in the competition so far this season. Captain Chris Judd has started the year in magnificent form, with Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy, Richard Hadley and Kade Simpson also shining. Brendan Fevola hit form with three last-quarter goals against Brisbane last weekend and plenty of other Blues have hit the scoreboard in each of the first two rounds. But there are still a couple of questionable areas of the Blues’ game that the Bombers might be able to exploit. Carlton’s defence had a slightly vulnerable look about it even before a shoulder injury outed Michael Jamison. Once Jamison went off against Brisbane, Daniel Bradshaw wreaked havoc against Paul Bower and almost lifted the Lions to a comeback win. If Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas can recapture their best form they could put Carlton’s defence under pressure. And in the ruck, Blues youngster Matthew Kreuzer has looked good in the first two rounds, but Essendon’s David Hille is a classy big man who would hope to gain an edge for his side.
Key: Carlton’s midfield appears to be a class above that of the Bombers and if they are on song, the Blues’ defence is unlikely to be face too stern a test.
Tip: Carlton by 35 points

PORT ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE
Venue: AAMI Stadium
Date: Sunday, April 12
Time: 12.40pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 10 Melbourne 8
Last time: Port Adelaide 18.21 (129) bt Melbourne 7.9 (51) R22 2008 AAMI Stadium
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Port Adelaide $1.15, Melbourne $5.00. Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $1.19, Melbourne $4.75.
Summary: There has been as much talk about what sort of crowd this match may attract as about the game itself – an Easter Sunday lunchtime fixture against last year’s wooden spooners seems poisonous for a club that is struggling to attract spectators to games. But there is much to ponder on a playing level for Port Adelaide too, after a loss to West Coast last week that bordered on the rancid. Coach Mark Williams was seen berating his players at each break, exhorting them to respond – and they never did. Poor skills and a lack of application allowed the Eagles to run away, and so the question for Melbourne is whether the visitors will cop the brunt of a Power reaction, or be able to capitalise on the curious flatness that afflicted Port last week. Either way, Port should have enough class within their ranks to brush off the improving Demons, provided they do the hard things.
Key: Will Port turn up? If they do, the game is already over, but if not the Dees may have a silly chance.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points

NORTH MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Date: Sunday, April 12
Time: 2.10pm
Head to head: Hawthorn 86 North Melbourne 73 Drawn 1
Last time: North Melbourne 15.13 (103) bt Hawthorn 10.16 (76) R13 2008 MCG
Betting: TAB SportsBet: North Melbourne $2.50, Hawthorn $1.50. Sportingbet: North Melbourne $2.35, Hawthorn $1.60.
Summary: Hit by injury and suspension, the Hawks are struggling to get their premiership defence going, having opened the season with losses to Geelong and Sydney. Still vulnerable, Hawthorn will not relish coming up against North Melbourne, who have won three of the past four clashes between these two sides, including their most recent meeting in round 13 last year. Not helping the Hawks’ cause is the fact that one of their biggest current weaknesses, their lack of depth in the ruck, also feeds into the `Roos’ biggest strength. Simon Taylor is still suspended, while Robert Campbell is in doubt with injury, leaving Brent Renouf to play virtually a lone hand in the ruck. The Kangaroos, by contrast, are likely to field four genuine ruck options in Hamish McIntosh, Todd Goldstein, Drew Petrie and David Hale. The continued absence of injured Hawks fullback Trent Croad will also help the `Roos, with Petrie and Hale likely to play up forward and pose some significant problems for the Hawks’ defence.
Key: Sydney’s advantage in the ruck set up their victory over the Hawks last round and the same factor could put North Melbourne on track for a win.
Tip: North Melbourne by 10 points

FREMANTLE v ADELAIDE
Venue: Subiaco Oval
Date: Sunday, April 12
Time: 2.40pm
Head to head: Adelaide 13 Fremantle 9
Last time: Adelaide 12.16 (88) bt Fremantle 10.11 (71) R5 2008 AAMI Stadium
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Fremantle $1.90, Adelaide $1.90. Sportingbet: Fremantle $1.91, Adelaide $1.91.
Summary: As was the case last year, Fremantle are a competitive unit for three quarters before being blown off the park in the final term. The Dockers’ skills have been atrocious in their opening two losses and coach Mark Harvey is seriously contemplating throwing another debutant into the mix this week. The Crows were impressive in their round one win over Collingwood but were brought crashing back to earth in their home loss to the Saints last week. They will be eager to bounce back with a win against the Dockers, especially after a week of intense scrutiny following Nathan Bock’s arrest for alleged assault and subsequent club-imposed suspension. Forward Trent Hentschel (knee) and midfielder Chris Knights (fractured eye socket) will be sorely missed.
Key: How the Crows shut down Fremantle match winner Matthew Pavlich without the services of All-Australian defender Nathan Bock.
Tip: Adelaide by 29 points

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WESTERN BULLDOGS v RICHMOND
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Date: Monday, April 13
Time: 2.10pm
Head to head: Richmond 75 Western Bulldogs 65 Drawn 2
Last time: Western Bulldogs 19.16 (130) drew with Richmond 20.10 (130) R5 2008 Etihad Stadium
Betting: TAB SportsBet: Western Bulldogs $1.30, Richmond $3.30. Sportingbet: Western Bulldogs $1.33, Richmond $3.35.
Summary: After an insipid round one showing against Carlton, Richmond at least showed plenty of spirit in pushing Geelong all the way at Skilled Stadium last weekend. They are well aware, however, that honourable losses will not help them towards a long-awaited finals berth or help under-siege coach Terry Wallace keep his job. But their chances of opening their account for the season against the Bulldogs appear slim, even if they are at their best. The Bulldogs have shown they can win with pace and skill, against Fremantle in Subiaco in their opening game, and with grit and courage, in the wet against the Kangaroos at the MCG in round two. They appear to have too much skill for the Tigers, who have often shown a propensity to turn the ball over under pressure. But Richmond will take heart from their last meeting, at the same venue early last season, when the Bulldogs had to come from 25 points down to pinch a draw.
Key: Belief and poise – the Tigers were in front in the last quarter against Geelong, but fell away when it counted. In contrast, the Bulldogs lifted when challenged late in their match against the Kangaroos.
Tip: Bulldogs by 20 points

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