Not since Super 10 became Super 12 have I looked forward to a season more than 2011. I am not only talking about the new Super Rugby format and the addition of the Melbourne Rebels, but the return and inclusion of some fantastic players that will push for Wallabies jumpers.
These players include the likes of Mark Gerrard, Dan Vickerman, Luke Rooney and Cooper Vuna to name a few.
In this article I am giving a preview of how I see the Australian teams performing this year. I will preempt my writing by saying that I am a Brumbies fan – just bought my two-year-old her first Brumbies jumper- so bear with me if I do get a little one-eyed.
Let’s begin with the Western Force. Continually cruelled by a shortage of depth in playing roster, this year I fear will be more of the same. They have some quality players in the starting team, and if all fit can threaten any team in the competition. They also have a new coach. This should help as Mitchell had been at the helm a while – and should be commended for the job he did – so the injection of new ideas and methodologies should invigorate the team.
Unfortunately though, I fell they may be holding up the Australian conference table.
Next the Queensland Reds. This team is looking good. They remind me of the Brumbies teams of the 2000 and 2004 vintage. Good forwards, world-class backs and the confidence to back themselves. I was never a fan of Link at the Waratahs (though, in hindsight, not sure if he was my problem) but at the Reds, he has proven how good he actually is.
The Reds have good leaders in both Horwill and Genia, a freakish player at 10 in Cooper, and a wrecking ball at 13/14 in Ioane. This combination will again be hard to contain. I expect that the Reds will be in the top tier of the table.
So the Rebels, how will they go? They have a tonne of experience led by one of the hardest running players in Mortlock and some outstanding talent. Mark Gerard returns, Luke Rooney, Cooper Vuna, Jarrod Saffy, Danny Cipriani, the list is long. Plus they have arguably one of the best coaches Australia has produced in Rod McQueen – and we can’t forget what he did at the fledgling Brumbies. But can they put it together in their first season?
I hope that they do well in their first game. Waratahs at home is a tough gig first up. I expect a few dropped balls from the Rebels as combinations start to gel. But I would like to see, from a rugby perspective, a Rebels victory.
This would be a great way to get the Melbourne fans coming in. If they do click, this team should be a real finals threat, though it may be that they fall just short. One thing for sure is that some of the players could throw up some interesting conundrums at the Wallabies selection meetings. Gerard, if fit and at his best, Rooney, who I was very impressed with for Toulon, Vuna all should go well in a World Cup year.
The Waratahs, the perennial under-achievers, have arguably the best playing roster in Australia, but they have had that before. This team should be the first Super Rugby champions and will probably be in first place in the Australian conference.
The problem that I see, however, is their captain – hence my comment on Link before. Now before the missiles begin, let me say, Phil Waugh is one of the toughest players I have seen. I am not doubting his courage, tenacity or playing ability, however he is not the leader to win the tournament. Why would I say that?
Easy. How many titles have the Waratahs won under Waugh? Zero. Why? Look at any of the previous seasons. What is the tactic, especially in tight games? Kick, kick and kick it some more. Waugh has come from Sydney Uni, who play a forward oriented game based on tactical kicking. Waugh brings this to the Waratahs. This is why I feel they have not won a title.
Look at some of the previous winners – the Crusaders, Brumbies, Blues, Bulls. When these teams won most of their titles – the Crusaders win over Wellington in the fog being one exception – they have played the way they did in the season – ball in hand.
Look at the Waratahs on each occasion they made the finals. They go into their shell. My prediction is that this team will lead the Australian conference, and if it doesn’t then some real serious questions should be asked of the coaching staff and the captain. They have the cattle, let’s see how well they are driven.
Finally to my Brumbies (sigh). As much as it pains me to admit it, I can’t see this team doing any better than the last few seasons. There is some great talent in Moore, Elsom, Phipps, Ashley-Cooper, but to win this tournament, there needs to be a least eight if not 10 players that are first line starters in the national side or pushing for it – think Brumbies 2000/2004 teams and how many were Wallabies.
I think Toomua has the potential to be a good player, let’s just hope that Giteau’s ambitions and ego don’t get in the way and he is given the 10 jersey.
In the forwards, Ma’afu’s experience in the Wallabies should give him confidence and combines well with his fellow front-rowers to give the backs some quality ball. This is where the Brumbies – and Wallabies for that matter – come unstuck, forward domination. Perhaps the return of Julian Salvi will help by providing some good turnover ball. I also think Colby Faingaa could help there too, but the Brumbies really miss George Smith – any team would.
As I walk the kilometre from home over the ridge for the first home game on the 19th, I will be hoping that I am proven wrong, but I think they will be finishing with the Force and may even compete for the wooden spoon in the Australian conference.
So my predicted table:
1. Waratahs
2. Reds
3. Rebels
4. Brumbies
5. Force
So let’s bring it on! And may we get an Australian team lifting the inaugural Super Rugby Cup. See you at the game!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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