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No matter which way you look at it, Graham Henry’s B-Blacks are on a hiding to nothing against a deeply hurting South African side in their final Tri Nations showdown this weekend.
Their challenge: subdue and vanquish 22 Springbok warriors on a desperate mission to save face in front of families, friends, communities and country.
Meaning as much as I hate to say it, our dearest All Blacks can’t and won’t beat South Africa this weekend. And here is four good reasons why:
1. A cornered Bok is a dangerous animal
There are few forces more compelling than the defense of one’s honour, which for the Springboks is hanging by a thread on the backdrop of two humiliating offshore defeats followed by another at home against the Wallabies last weekend.
And so it is for de Villiers’ A-Team on behalf of a proud rugby nation, that their reputation will stand or fall on the strength of their performance against New Zealand’s visiting B-Team.
Nor should we neglect South Africa’s status as current Rugby World Cup champions – utterly desperate to bank at least one victory before setting sail for the Rugby World Cup.
It is the combination of these motivational factors that will spark the revival of South Africa’s First XV this weekend.
2. Graham Henry’s experimental selections
Coach Henry’s latest concoction is designed purely for experimental purposes. As exciting as the package may be, it’s substance and combinations are untested and unproven. These include:
– The re-introduction of long-term absentees for their first test of the year: namely, prop Tony Woodcock (foot), fullback Israel Dagg (thigh), wing Isaia Toeava (hip), and centre Richard Kahui (hamstring).
– The return of tighthead prop John Afoa from an eye-socket injury.
– The relatively untried captaincy of Keven Mealamu in the test match arena. Auckland’s Super Rugby captain has only led the All Blacks on one other occasion – in 2008 against Scotland.
– The freshly formed centre-pairing of Sonny Bill Williams and Richard Kahui, whilst exciting in theory, will have no time to flounder against waves of South African sorties.
– Super-loosie Adam Thomson being started in unfamiliar open-side surroundings (in the absence of Richie McCaw) will be the ultimate test of his versatility.
– The confidence of All Blacks pivot Colin Slade, whose remarkable recovery from a double-broken jaw is still ongoing. Early indications are that he’s trending sharply upwards. 80-minutes with the Boks could be the make or break of Slade’s revival.
3. Harrowing home-ground advantage
Not only is a cornered Springbok a dangerous animal, but it gets to fight on this occasion in its own natural habitat.
At Port Elizabeth, the All Blacks have battled the Boks on four previous occasions and have been trounced every time. Meaning there’s no favourable history to hang some hope on in this arena. It will be a brutal and physical encounter.
4. Unity of purpose
The defining factor between these two sides ultimately comes down to what’s really at stake. For the Springboks, it is the passion, reputation and survival of an entire team towards the pinnacle tournament in three weeks time.
But for the All Blacks, it is the survival of individual players in pursuit of 30 sacred places.
And that’s where the Springboks will galvanize whilst the All Blacks individualize.
As Benjamin Franklin once said, “We must all hang together, or assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”
All Blacks starting XV:
1. Tony Woodcock, 2. Keven Mealamu (captain), 3. John Afoa, 4. Samuel Whitelock, 5. Ali Williams, 6. Jerome Kaino, 7. Adam Thomson, 8. Liam Messam, 9. Jimmy Cowan, 10. Colin Slade, 11. Hosea Gear, 12. Sonny Bill Williams, 13. Richard Kahui, 14. Isaia Toeava, 15. Israel Dagg, 16. Andrew Hore, 17. Ben Franks, 18. Jarrad Hoeata, 19. Victor Vito, 20. Andy Ellis, 21. Piri Weepu, 22. Cory Jane
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.