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Australia's Digby Ioane runs past Italy's Fabio Semenzato during their Rugby World Cup Pool C game at North Harbour Stadium in Auckland, New Zealand, Sunday, Sept. 11, 2011.(AP Photo/Ross Land)
When Wales snatched a a six-point lead against South Africa with about 15 minutes in the game left and then charged back to almost score again, I checked the draw to see what would happen if the Springboks were runner-up in their pool D, rather than winning.
I was surprised to find that if the unthinkable happened, the Wallabies would have to play them in the quarter-finals.
This would have meant a formidable, maybe even impossible finals journey to World Cup glory for the Wallabies, with a potential finals run of the Springboks, England and then (if the ranking worked out) New Zealand.
As it happened, Wales blew their great chance of defeating the Springboks for only the second time since 1906. James Hook missed a hard penalty shot from the side-line. A drop-goal was missed from almost in front.
And tries were missed because Wales dithered over the ball, setting up forward rushes instead of punching away quickly and repeatedly at an increasingly agitated Springboks defensive line.
Wayne Barnes had an excellent match as the referee.
But he and the assistant referee missed several blatant Springbok attempts to slow the ball down when players were lying prone on the ground, infringements which would have offered Wales kickable shots at goal.
One particularly blatant effort by Bismarck Du Plessis was centimetres away from the assistant referee. How the official missed the offence is beyond me.
Credit, though, to the Springboks. They came back and scored the winning try after turning down a kick at goal to set up a five-metre lineout. At the time I thought this was madness. The Zavos principle is to always take the points.
The reality was that the Springboks gambled and won, and did so with positive play, going for a try and a conversion which gave them the crucial lead.
This victory should be enough to get the Springboks through as the winners of their pool, and into the New Zealand half of the draw. They do have to play Samoa who have yet to play a match.
On the strength of Samoa’s win against the Wallabies there remains the possibility of them going through and defeating Wales and South Africa. Wales, perhaps, but South Africa, I don’t think so.
And we shouldn’t discount from either winning or coming second in Pool D, the pool of death, the almost heroes of Rugby World Cupn 2007, Fiji, who had some storming moments in overwhelming Namibia 49-25.
What came through clearly in the opening round of the tournament, which was marked by a series of enthralling matches which made up for the dross of the New Zealand-Tonga opening, is that experience and more importantly the experience of winning is very important in deciding tight contests.
The Springboks knew how to win. Wales did not know how to win, especially against the Springboks.
And so an outcome that the South African journalists took for granted (‘Welsh have the guts but don’t have the genes’ was the headline of the controversial South African pundit Mark Keohane) did actually eventuate.
We saw Scotland come out ahead of a Romanian side with some late tries.
France looked to be on the brink of going under to an exuberant Japan before piling on three tries in a few minutes to take out a victory that was more comfortable on paper than in reality.
Ireland, who play the Wallabies next weekend at Eden Park, for the leadership of Pool C, made hard work of putting away an emotional American side which was inspired by the 9/11 ceremonies.
And England toughed out a hard-played and strongly contested match in the new roofed stadium at Dunedin. All the kickers in this match missed numerous kicks, even Jonny Wilkinson who kicked two penalties and missed about five and a conversion.
One of the truths to come out of all of this is that the teams have evened themselves up.
The days of huge blow-outs seem to be over, although as the tournament progresses and the lesser teams suffer injuries we may see a few.
I put this down to the fact that aside from Namibia, most of the players are professionals. As professionals they have reached a certain level of competency, even to the extent of learning how to slow down the game in a ‘professsional’ manner as Tonga did against the All Blacks.
So many Tongans went down injured in the second half that the usual 40 minutes was stretched to about 55.
Looking back on the round, it is safe to say that the most impressive displays were the first 40 minutes by the All Blacks against Tonga and the second 40 minutes of the Wallabies against Italy.
The Wallabies were most impressive, even in the first half in which both sides scored six points each. The Wallaby scrum lost some penalties and won some against the Italian pack, which is one of the best scrumming packs going around.
And in the second half, especially when James ‘all is forgiven’ O’Connor came on, the Wallaby backs were absolutely lethal.
Digby Ioane especially was unstoppable at times, hitting the line at speed and then racing around the defence like a tank swerving to avoid immovable defensive objects.
So the major teams have survived a sometimes torrid first round of pool matches.
The rugby, with the exception of the opening match, has been invariably willing and spirited.
Some of the matches have been nail-biting affairs for their supporters, and the supporters of other teams who might have to face these teams in the finals.
I would say that the quality of play and refereeing (with the exception of George Clancy) has been of a much higher standard and excellence than in 2007. Those British journalists, mainly, who have complained about New Zealand not having the stadiums to cope with the World Cup requirements should be writing their mea culpas out now.
The grounds have been great. The stadiums impressive. The crowds have been large and enthusiastic. The rugby has been great.
We are in for a great World Cup. It would be the bravest of scribes who could state categorically after round one that he is certain he knows who will win the Webb Ellis trophy.
Hold on tight, this is going to be a World Cup of thrills and spills if the first round is any indicator.
