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This Sunday marks a landmark occasion for mixed martial arts, as the UFC makes its debut on US network television with UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos.
The landmark deal was announced earlier this August, effectively ending UFC’s previous cable TV deals with Spike TV and Versus.
As the show’s title suggests, the card’s main event will be Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos for the UFC heavyweight championship.
Dos Santos earned his title shot by defeating Shane Carwin at UFC 131 last June. Vasquez has not fought since dethroning Brock Lesnar in October of 2010.
Analysis
Striking
Though Velasquez’s training with the American Kickboxing Academy has given him solid striking skills, Dos Santos’ bread-and-butter has always been fighting on his feet. Coupled with Dos Santos’ advantages in reach and power, and Vasquez will be hard-pressed to topple the giant while standing. However, Velasquez’s knockout of “Minotauro” Noguiera proves that he’s no slouch in the striking game.
Advantage: Dos Santos
Wrestling
Where Dos Santos excels standing, Velasquez is a two-time Division I All-American wrestler from his collegiate days. Velasquez easily outwrestled the larger and equally decorated ex-wrestler Brock Lesnar.
Dos Santos showed decent takedown defence in his last fight against Shane Carwin, but his tall frame makes him somewhat susceptible to takedowns from the stocky Velasquez.
Advantage: Velasquez
Submissions
Though neither man is renowned for their submission prowess, Dos Santos has one victory via submission manoeuvre to his name. On the other hand, Velasquez has none. Both men have stellar Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu coaches in their corner in Dave Camarillo and Noguiera, respectively. Given his training in Brazil and association with the Black House team, Dos Santos possesses the superior grappling partners in his training camp.
Advantage: Dos Santos
Strength and Conditioning
As far as heavyweights go, both fighters can hold their own in the strength department. In terms of pure strength, Velasquez may hold a slight advantage due to his wrestling background. Velasquez is renowned for his cardiovascular conditioning, though Dos Santos has shown that he can fight three hard rounds without much of an issue. N
either has fought past the third round, but it’s safe to assume that Velasquez’s vaunted conditioning will carry him long into the fight despite the considerable lay-off.
Advantage: Velasquez
Final verdict:
At 2-2 after this analysis, it’s clear that Velasquez and Dos Santos are an almost equal match, which is almost guaranteed to deliver a good fight. It will be interesting to see how they handle the gruelling five-round format. Expect fireworks from this one.
Prediction: Velasquez by unanimous decision
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