The second half of the split Round 18 will be played out this weekend with only four matches and, if the first half of last weekend was an indication, we will be in for more thrillers as the countdown continues to the AFL finals.
This round will see (presumably) the last Friday night match in the west between two teams out of the eight, the eighth annual QClash, a potential Grand Final preview and two teams hoping to keep their finals hopes alive.
Last week we saw two major upsets, as well as three thrilling matches that were decided by only single-figure margins. Will we see more of the same this weekend? Let’s preview the four matches for this week in detail.
West Coast Eagles vs Richmond
The sixth match of Round 18 will feature two teams that are currently out of the eight and with little chance of reaching the finals this year.
The West Coast Eagles have struggled to really find their feet under first-year coach Adam Simpson and as such, their only victory against a team ranked higher was against the Gold Coast Suns in Round 13.
However, with ruckman Dean Cox announcing his retirement at the end of this season, there is no doubt that they will be out to finish this season and his career on a high, and there’s no better stage than to start this stretch with their only Friday night match for the season against Richmond.
The Tigers have been mostly disappointing this season, however three straight victories have seen them rise to 12th on the ladder with their percentage just over 100. This included defeating Port Adelaide by 20 point at Etihad Stadium last round.
Thus, Damien Hardwick’s men will fly west not only in a good patch of form, but also with the knowledge that they toppled the Eagles in Perth the last time these two teams met, in Round 10 last year.
A loss for either side will all but end their faint finals hopes, so all will be on the line this Friday night in Perth.
Prediction: Eagles by 30 points.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns
Following St Kilda’s stunning 58-point thumping of Fremantle in the first half of the split-round, and suddenly the Brisbane Lions are back in the battle to avoid their first wooden spoon since 1998.
Not surprisingly, the Lions have struggled immensely under first-year coach Justin Leppitsch, with all four of their victories being only by single-figure margins. But if there is a good time to unleash, it’s this weekend against the Gary Ablett-less Suns.
Without their inspirational skipper, the Suns were exposed in a 28-point loss to the Western Bulldogs in Cairns last start, coming just one week after Ablett injured his shoulder in the courageous victory against Collingwood.
This marked the sixth time in as many attempts that the Suns have lost without the dual Brownlow Medalist in the side, and it resulted in them dropping out of the top eight and facing a fading battle to break back into it.
In fact, Ablett missed the corresponding match against the Lions at the Gabba last year, which the club lost by 33 points. It was the only match the Brownlow Medalist missed for the season.
Despite his absence, the Lions are conceding underdog status given how far the Suns have progressed in their four years in the competition, and the Lions’ never-ending fall from grace following their era of success between 2001 and 2004.
Still, the threat of the wooden spoon, and the fact they lost by 53 points when these two teams last met in Round 3, should spur the Lions to victory this time.
Prediction: Lions by 20 points.
Hawthorn vs Sydney Swans
Ladies and gentlemen, here it is. The potential Grand Final preview and the grudge match of all grudge matches awaits when the two most recent premiers go head to head at the MCG on Saturday night.
Buddy Franklin has already faced (and defeated) his former side earlier this season in front of his new fans in Sydney but this time he will be public enemy number one when his high-flying Swans descend onto ‘the G’ to face the Hawks in front of what is expected to be a mostly pro-brown-and-gold crowd.
Make no mistake, the Hawks faithful will be out to ensure their collective boos for Buddy measure louder than the average Maria Sharapova grunt on the decibel reader. They used to embrace him, but now this match will be more than just two premiership contenders going at each other, it will also be him against them.
In all seriousness, however, the Swans will enter this match on the back of twelve consecutive wins, which also included defeating the Hawks at ANZ Stadium back in May. If you think they will be stopped sometime soon – think again.
Kurt Tippett, Dan Hannebery and Rhyce Shaw could make their injury comebacks this Saturday night, while Josh Gibson will do likewise for the Hawks – last featuring when the two teams clashed in Sydney two months ago.
Given the Hawks have won six of their last seven matches against the Swans at the MCG (the only blot being the match that really mattered most – the 2012 Grand Final), many may feel that the Swans are long due for a loss on Saturday night.
I feel the same kind of way, too. As the saying goes, nothing lasts forever.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 15 points.
Collingwood vs Adelaide Crows
A place in the eight will go on the line when the Pies and Crows meet in the only match on Sunday to end the split Round 18.
After sitting as high as fourth after Round 12, the Pies have dropped four of their last five games, including being thrashed by Essendon by 64 points last start, to find themselves just clinging onto their place in the eight.
A loss to the Crows, whose finals hopes still remain alive, will see them drop out of the eight and see them at risk of missing the finals for the first time since 2005.
For Brenton Sanderson’s men, it will have been 16 days since they last played, when they threatened an upset against reigning premiers Hawthorn before losing by 12 points, despite the best efforts of best-on-ground Patrick Dangerfield.
It’s hoped that this momentum, as well as the fact they defeated the Pies at home earlier this season, will continue on as they furiously pursue a place in September. James Podsiadly will play his 100th AFL game since debuting in 2010, adding to the lure for the Crows to win.
Regardless of how Gold Coast fare against the Lions the previous day, the Crows’ superior percentage could see them replace Collingwood in the eight with victory on Sunday, while a Pies win would see the top eight remain unchanged.
Therefore, the stakes will be high.
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 18 points.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
Bayley Fritsch should become an even more important player from a structural perspective, given key forward Jacob van Rooyen will be unavailable due to concussion.
The Collingwood supporter who touched West Coast debutant Harvey Johnston during Sunday's match at Marvel Stadium has been handed a 12-month suspension. Johnston grabbed…
What a difference a month makes as the drums start to beat louder on whether Dustin Martin should retire at the end of the…
Kane Cornes was trying to highlight Adelaide's problem with intercept marks, but Hutchy saw it as another attack on Tex Walker.
The AFL should revive the State-based representative game and give players something to strive towards in addition to “All-Australian” selection, as part of a wider scheduling revamp.
The AFL is investigating an incident in the last quarter of Collingwood's win over West Coast, when a Magpies supporter leaned over the fence…
