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Analysing the 2014 US Open draw

Where to now for Rafa? (AFP PHOTO / SAEED KHAN)
Roar Guru
22nd August, 2014
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The men’s and women’s draws for the 2014 US Open have been released and there will be a large number of interesting and intriguing matches to look forward to as the year’s final Grand Slam tournament gets underway on Tuesday morning (AEST).

We kick it off by previewing the men’s draw, where Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, the combatants of last month’s memorable Wimbledon final, are the top two seeds and thus cannot meet until the final on September 8.

Djokovic will start his bid for a second title at Flushing Meadows with a first round showdown against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but his run could face its first serious test in the third round where he could face Spain’s Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

The Spaniard famously upset Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka on his way to reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the French Open three months ago.

Big-serving American John Isner, who was recently forced to withdraw from the ongoing Winston-Salem Open due to an ankle injury, is the next major obstacle in Djokovic’s path to the title.

Awaiting the world number one in the quarter-finals could possibly be either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who defeated Djokovic on his way to the Rogers Cup title in Canada, or former champion Andy Murray, who opens against Robin Haase and could face Radek Stepanek, in Round 2.

Third seed Wawrinka opens against the Czech Republic’s Jiri Vesely, with France’s Jeremy Chardy, two-time US Open semi-finalist Mikhail Youzhny and Spanish sixteenth seed Tommy Robredo being the seeded rivals in his eighth.

Australia’s Nick Kyrgios is also in that section, and he will face Youzhny, who also reached the last eight in New York last year, in his opener. Sergiy Stakhovsky or Andreas Seppi would then await in Round 2.

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Japan’s Kei Nishikori and Canadian fifth seed and Wimbledon semi-finalist Milos Raonic loom as the likely quarter-final opponents for Wawrinka. Both men have relatively easy draws on their way to a possible fourth round collision.

The bottom half of the draw is anchored by five-time champion Roger Federer, who has drawn Australia’s Marinko Matosevic in the first round.

His first seeded obstacle, Croatian serving machine Ivo Karlovic, could await in Round 3, while Italy’s Fabio Fognini or Spain’s Roberto Bautista-Agut later loom as likely fourth round opponents for the Swiss maestro.

Potential quarter-final opponents may include either seventh seed Grigor Dimitrov, Frenchmen Gael Monfils or Richard Gasquet – both of whom could meet in the third round.

David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych then loom as semi-final opponents for Federer. In what shapes as a tough first round match for both players, Berdych begins his bid for a maiden Grand Slam title against former champion Lleyton Hewitt.

The Czech will be aware of how Hewitt fared last year, knocking out sixth seed Juan Martin del Potro on his way to nearly reaching the quarter-finals, being pipped at the post by Mikhail Youzhny in the round of sixteen.

Officially, Hewitt has never defeated Berdych but did score a win at the Kooyong Classic early last year on his way to the title.

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Berdych’s quarter-final conqueror at Roland Garros, Ernests Gulbis, awaits in Round 4 as does dangerous Spaniard Feliciano Lopez.

Ferrer, the recently beaten finalist in Cincinnati, starts against Bosnian Damir Dzumhur and Australian wildcard Bernard Tomic could loom in Round 2. Later opponents that could block his path to the quarter-finals include France’s Gilles Simon and Wimbledon (and two-time US Open) quarter-finalist Marin Cilic.

If the men’s results go as planned, then the finals could line up as follows:

Quarter-finals
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Milos Raonic
Tomas Berdych vs David Ferrer
Grigor Dimitrov vs Roger Federer

Semi-finals
Novak Djokovic vs Stanislas Wawrinka
David Ferrer vs Roger Federer

Final
Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer

Now, swinging our focus to the women’s draw where Serena Williams and Simona Halep are the top two seeds, meaning they cannot meet before the final.

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Williams, the two-time defending champion, starts her bid for a sixth US Open title against fellow compatriot Taylor Townsend, who most notably out-performed her at the French Open this year, reaching the fourth round.

Another compatriot, Vania King, or former French Open champion Francesca Schiavone, whom Williams defeated in the first round last year, then loom as second round opponents.

Her first seeded obstacle then comes in the form of China’s Zhang Shuai, while former champion Samantha Stosur, who starts against rising American Lauren Davis, or Spain’s Carla Suarez Navarro, who was fed a double-bagel by Williams in last year’s quarter-final, loom as likely fourth round opponents.

Former quarter-finalists Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Ana Ivanovic, or last year’s semi-finalist, Flavia Pennetta, would then loom as the likely last eight opponents for Serena Williams.

Australia’s Casey Dellacqua, seeded at a Grand Slam for the first time, faces Patricia Mayr-Achleitner in her first match, and if she gets past a qualifier in Round 2, could then face Ivanovic in Round 3, by then which the Serb will be aiming for her 50th match win this season.

Ivanovic, who broke back into the world’s top ten this week for the first time since 2009, has 47 match wins so far in 2014 and was beaten by Williams in the Cincinnati final, faces American Alison Riske, who reached the fourth round last year, in her opener.

Recently crowned Wimbledon champion for a second time, Petra Kvitova faces a challenging first round match of her own, having been drawn against France’s Kristina Mladenovic in her opener.

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This is the same woman who not only beat Li Na at the French Open this year, but also upset the Czech at the Paris Indoors tournament very early last year. If Kvitova can get past her in Round 1, then a compatriot in the form of either Klara Koukalova or Petra Cetkovska would await in Round 2.

Another rising American, Madison Keys, represents the first major obstacle for Kvitova in Round 3, while two-time Grand Slam champions Svetlana Kuznetsova and Victoria Azarenka loom as likely fourth round opponents.

Should Kvitova reach the quarter-finals, then she could face a rematch of her lopsided Wimbledon final against Canada’s seventh seed Eugenie Bouchard, who begins her bid for a first Grand Slam title against Olga Govortsova of Belarus.

Blocking Bouchard’s path will be either one of Sorana Cirstea or Heather Watson, and then recent Wimbledon quarter-finalist Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova and either Dominika Cibulkova or last year’s quarter-finalist, Ekaterina Makarova.

World number two Simona Halep, French Open champion Maria Sharapova, Rogers Cup champion Agnieszka Radwanska and former world number ones Jelena Jankovic and Caroline Wozniacki anchor the bottom half of the draw.

Halep begins against little-known American Danielle Collins in the first round, with Spain’s Garbine Muguruza, former French Open finalist Sara Errani and seven-time Grand Slam champion Venus Williams looming as seeded obstacles in her bid to reach the last eight in New York for the first time.

Errani, whose poor form this year has seen her slip to 14th in the world, faces Belgium’s Kirsten Flipkens in her first match, and could run into a resurgent Venus Williams, whom she has never won a set against, in the third round.

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French Open champion Sharapova and former world number one Wozniacki could meet in a blockbuster fourth round showdown, but both have tough tests to overcome for that to happen.

Sharapova starts against fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko, who in their only previous Grand Slam meeting upended her in three sets at the Australian Open in 2010. Should the five-time Grand Slam champion get to Round 3, then Germany’s Sabine Lisicki could await.

Wozniacki, on the other hand, meets Magdalena Rybarikova in her first match, and could face another German, Andrea Petkovic, in Round 3.

Fourth seed Agnieszka Radwanska looms as the likely semi-final opponent for either Sharapova or Simona Halep. The Pole, who will attempt to reach the last eight in New York for the first time, faces Canada’s Sharon Fichman in her opener.

Former Wimbledon semi-finalist Zheng Jie, two-time US Open quarter-finalist Roberta Vinci and dangerous Czech left-hander Lucie Safarova later loom as likely obstacles to a final eight showdown against either Angelique Kerber or 2008 finalist Jelena Jankovic.

Kerber’s first two matches will be against qualifiers, with promising Swiss Belinda Bencic or Japan’s 31st seed Kurumi Nara looming as her first genuine threats in the draw, while Jankovic begins against compatriot Bojana Jovanovski and could face 21st seed Sloane Stephens in the third round.

If the women’s results go as planned, then the finals could line up as follows:

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Quarter-finals
Serena Williams vs Ana Ivanovic
Petra Kvitova vs Eugenie Bouchard
Angelique Kerber vs Agnieszka Radwanska
Maria Sharapova vs Simona Halep

Semi-finals
Serena Williams vs Petra Kvitova
Agnieszka Radwanska vs Simona Halep

Final
Serena Williams vs Simona Halep

There’s the analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws. Will they unfold as many expect, or will there be some upsets along the way? Find out when main draw play starts at 1:00am (AEST)  Tuesday morning on The Roar.

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