It has been a matter of debate in the AFL world. Just when did Richmond’s improbable rise to the 2014 AFL finals start?
The simplified answer is Round 15 when they won the first of what has become a nine-game winning run. Some have claimed it was a week earlier in Round 14, when they pushed the minor premiers for three and a half quarters before succumbing late to Lance Franklin and Sydney.
Others will claim it was Round 11, when they reached arguably their lowest point in only kicking three goals in three quarters on the big stage of ‘Dreamtime at the G’.
However the real answer lies before any of these points. The real answer to when Richmond’s improbable run began was during the third quarter of the 2013 Elimination final as they were being overrun by Carlton.
Richmond went into the 2013 finals as one of the form teams and confident of running deep into September. However in a cruel twist of fate it was the hypothetical ninth-placed team of Carlton that caused an Elimination Final boilover.
Richmond after a season of hope were done. A week later Carlton were too.
Flashback even further in 2013 and the announcement by the AFL that as of the 2014 season the fixture for the next season would be based around three pools of six, one to six, seven to 12 and 13 to 18. The basic overview was that you would play more teams in your pool and that this would create a more equitable fixture.
It was flawed logic at the time and after just one season there is clear proof that this decision by the AFL has made the fixture even more lopsided.
Let’s bring it back to 2014 and to Round 14. After finals appearances in 2013 both Richmond and Carlton have struggled through the opening months of the season with a tough early run, poor form to key players, questionable coaching and injuries leaving Carlton on just four wins from 13 games and Richmond on three wins from 13 games with Richmond being equal last.
At the time Richmond’s form was so bad you could not imagine a scenario where they could rattle nine wins off, however now with hindsight consider the run home Richmond were looking at.
St Kilda, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Essendon, Adelaide, St Kilda again and Sydney. Only three finals teams in that run of nine, and only one top-four team. They even got the bottom side twice.
Now think about Carlton’s last nine games. Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Essendon. They played six of the top-eight teams in the last seven weeks of the season including three of the top-four teams. Swap the two fixtures of Carlton and Richmond around and there is every chance the AFL is talking about Carlton racing to finals on the back of a nine game winning streak.
And what is the only reason that Richmond and Carlton were given the fixtures they were given? The result of an Elimination Final.
In 2013 Richmond won four more games than Carlton, but because Carlton won an Elimination Final they were given one of the toughest draws of the season, having to take on four teams above it, that were superior, twice.
Meanwhile, Richmond was gifted two games against two of the bottom three sides. Crazy, but last year’s Elimination Final set about one of the most talked about and memorable winning streaks of the modern era.
It used to be a widely considered belief that it was better to miss the eight and get a higher draft pick then play finals football for one week and get bounced straight out. Perhaps a new argument needs to be made that if you are not going to win the Grand final the next best scenario is to lose an Elimination Final. You get finals experience into players, help your club coffers and still get a cushy run the next year to return bigger and better.
The fortunes not only of the 2014 season go on the line for Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon and Richmond this week, but perhaps their 2015 seasons as well. Will one of these teams be the 2015 version of Richmond and the other, the version of Carlton?
The ongoing joke with Richmond was around their ninth placed finishes and September disappointment. The AFL has found a way to make Richmond’s September disappointment a positive for the next year.
Perhaps even Richmond fans can laugh at that.
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