This year’s Bathurst 1000 is anyone’s race. Usually when people say that phrase, they say it when there’s a clear favourite in mind. And while Mark Winterbottom and Steve Owen are the bookie’s choices, they are by no means favourites.
Up to 15 combinations could win Bathurst after three days of racing, and with rain predicted in the final couple of hours, it could rise to plenty more as the conditions allow others to come into contention.
The mountain will also bite today like it has done already this weekend. Predicting who will feel the wrath of the mountain is anyone’s guess, it doesn’t take any prisoners.
Garth Tander and Warren Luff already know how it feels. After a big crash at Griffins Bend during Practice 6, the number two HRT car is out of the race after being withdrawn by the team. And they aren’t the only ones who have had problems.
Jamie Whincup and David Reynolds start at the back of the grid after suffering incidents during qualifying. David Wall starts from twenty second after crashing at the Chase on Thursday. Craig Lowndes almost missed the top 10 shootout after being an innocent victim of the Warren Luff incident in Practice 6.
And finally, Chaz Mostert will start in 26th, after being excluded from qualifying for overtaking under a red flag.
All these teams face challenges in the race, but four of the five are still contenders. Only David Wall, who has struggled for pace all weekend, is out of my calculations. Whincup and Dumbrell are the combination that could turn a grid position of 24 into a win, as both have been strong this weekend and Whincup will be hell bent on making up for the mistake in qualifying.
The same applies to Reynolds and Canto if they can replicate their pace from Thursday. The only problem for both combinations, and for Mostert and Wall, is that no one has won it from 20th or below on the grid.
The best was 19th when the King of the Mountain, Peter Brock, won his last Bathurst 1000 in 1987. It has also been 15 years since someone from outside the top 10 won the race. In 1999, Greg Murphy and Steven Richards won Bathurst from 12th.
For the likes of James Courtney, Nick Percat, the Erebus drivers and the Nissans, they will have to recreate that history to win the race.
The best chance of that happening is from James Courtney and Greg Murphy from the Holden Racing Team. They have had a quiet weekend so far and have kept themselves out of trouble. A further 140 laps of that tomorrow will put them right in the hunt as others make mistakes along the way.
With the addition of being the only HRT car in the field, double stacking will not be an issue in critical pit stops.
Scott Pye and Ash Walsh, who start 16th, could also be a combination today. They finished fifth at the Sandown 500 after finishing in 19th during the two qualifying races. This combination could certainly go high again if everything goes right for them.
But it looks to be a tough day for the Erebus and Nissan teams. Both new manufacturers have struggled this weekend to find pace, and only the combination of James Moffat and Taz Douglas have looked competitive. The race is a long one though, and you just never know what could happen in the Bathurst 1000. They could also have a better racing car than a qualifying car.
Despite this, the winner looks to come from the top 10, like it does in most Bathurst 1000s. Only three races in the history of the event, since 1967, have been won by drivers who started outside of the 10.
The most popular position for the winner is pole position. The winner has come from pole position 11 times in the Bathurst 1000, but the last one was in 2009 with Garth Tander and Will Davison for HRT, the only time in a decade.
Shane Van Gisbergen and Jonathon Webb will try to win from that position, and are every chance of doing that, but will need to be consistent. If they push the car too early then mistakes can and will happen. Making sure they are in the fight in the final 30 laps will be important.
For Winterbottom and Owen, they would love their position of second on the grid. Last year this position handed Winterbottom and Steven Richards the win and they will be hoping to replicate the same feat in this year’s race.
Craig Lowndes will also be happy with his grid spot. In 2006 and 2007 he won this race from sixth on the grid and starts today in the same spot. He will be looking to guide his co-driver to back-to-back wins.
Finally, all three Brad Jones Racing cars are right in contention. Fabian Coulthard, Jason Bright and Dale Wood will all start in the top 10 for the Great Race. All cars have been jets this weekend and look to have the pace to be competitive.
Bright has won here at the mountain before in 1998, but can his experience win him a second crown? Or can Coulthard and Wood break their poor runs at Bathurst and crack the top step for the podium?
It is a genuinely tough race to predict but here we go. The experience of Lowndes and Richards will count for something and I think they will win the Bathurst. Both drivers know how to win and the car will be fine after the incident yesterday.
James Courtney and Greg Murphy will fill one of the other podium positions with Shane Van Gisbergen and Jonathon Webb to join them.
I expect Whincup and Dumbrell to finish in the top five and come back from 24th on the grid. Winterbottom is every chance of winning but I feel the pressure of going back-to-back will hurt him and his co-driver.
There could be as many as 15 combinations in the Bathurst 1000, bring it on, I say.
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