Early season form can be a mirage as some clubs jump out of the blocks against weaker opposition, while others are drawn with multiple games against the big boys and struggle.
Now, with a quarter of the season gone, enough games have been played to realise that clubs find themselves in a league position which truly reflects their early season form.
With this in mind the early standouts such as Southampton, West Ham and Swansea have performed above expectations but have deserved their lofty league positions.
Likewise too those sitting at the foot of the table cannot blame bad luck or a poor fixture as a reason for their early demise.
With only nine games out of 38 completed all three promoted sides look like they could drop straight back into the Championship abyss. Burnley find themselves adrift from the rest of the league, currently on four points, and have endured an abysmal start to the season.
Burnley remain the only team in any of the English football leagues not to have celebrated their first win. All four points have come from draws with three of those being nil-all affairs. Therein lies the issue facing Burnley, where are their goals going to come from?
Just five goals in 9 league outings simply isn’t good enough and having failed to score in five games so far this campaign it is a credit to their defence that they have even obtained four points. Unfortunately for their fans it appears even this early in the campaign that they are destined for the drop.
So who will fill the other two spots and take the trap door to the Championship along with Burnley?
The league is incredibly tight with just two points separating Sunderland, occupying 18th spot on eight points, and West Brom, who sit in 13th on 10. Those clubs on 11 points or more are too good in my opinion to be drawn into a relegation scrap this season and should fight out for places in the top 10 and Europa league spots.
So it appears two of QPR, Sunderland, Leicester, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Newcastle and West Brom could be relegated should they not start collecting points on a regular occurrence.
For me I can see Crystal Palace, West Brom and Newcastle being good enough to steer clear of the bottom three. Palace have a good squad assembled and should have enough heart to scrape through, while West Brom also shouldn’t have too many concerns.
Even Newcastle, the wonderful EPL basket case that it is, proved over the weekend with their performance against Tottenham that when on song they have the tricks to get big results. We know anything can happen at the Toon but could this most recent win see them finally kick into gear?
This leaves four potential candidates.
After a crucial second season win versus Aston Villa overnight QPR have taken their season tally to seven points and are currently two points from safety. Though their goals against could hurt them in the long run. Their two wins against other bottom six teams is crucial and highlights the importance of these “six point” games at the bottom.
Their away form reads like a horror novel with all four games thus far lost and only one goal scored away from Loftus Road. Harry Redknapp’s side have conceded more goals than any other side in the Premiership and their leaky defence could mean their yo-yo performances in recent years continue with a drop straight back into the Championship.
Unlike the other two promoted teams however, they do have a big squad and can call on experience which could be the difference.
Leicester haven’t been struggling to find the net but their squad depth remains a concern. Like all promoted teams each season the key early is not just about finding the right mix to compete in the Premiership but adding quality players who provide help during those long winter months. Their performances against those around them will be critical and they must start banking wins.
Sunderland has had a win and no less than five draws, so there are positives that they can climb out of the bottom three. But with so much turmoil around the Stadium of Light you could be excused for mistaking them with their northern rivals Newcastle. Manager Gus Poyet seems like a dead man walking and David Moyes has been touted as his replacement, which could either be an inspired move or a disaster. At least the new man, if he does come in, will have time to get them up the table.
But Aston Villa looks the most vulnerable. The fact they have scored only four goals all season and seem completely inept in the forward third does not bode well. Their hopes rest largely on the centre defensive pairing of Ron Vlaar and Nathan Baker continuing to work well, and Christian Benteke magically rediscovering his goalscoring touch.
If he doesn’t I don’t know how long the defence can hold out and the Dad’s Army of Darren Bent and Joe Cole hardly inspires confidence in the forward half.
For me Burnley drop along with Aston Villa and Leicester but it should be one hell of a run home for those clubs battling for survival.
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