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Without doubt the biggest name coming out of contract this year is Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield. As a restricted free agent he has, for the first time in his career, a legitimate say in where his future lies.
When he was drafted at pick 10 by Adelaide in 2007, he had no say in where he ended up and in his case, as with many others, it was interstate.
Dangerfield has made it clear his decision will not be made from a purely football perspective, but will also be based on family as well as his future beyond his playing career.
So far Dangerfield has followed the same path, and said the same things as previous free agents who have left their clubs after their season has ended, and according to many, has also already made a decision on where he will be in 2016.
The Adelaide Crows will keep Patrick Dangerfield
Mark my words, Adelaide Oval will remain Danger’s field
Former Richmond champion and now commentator Kevin Bartlett is one of those. In the weeks leading up to the Round 14 game between Adelaide and Geelong, he continually referred to it as the “Dangerfield Cup” on his SEN radio show.
“He says all the right things like I love playing here, I love the environment,” Bartlett said. “But not once has he said I want to stay a Crow.”
As do others, Bartlett points out that he already has strong connections with the area, as his family lives in Moggs Creek – only 50 kilometres from Geelong – and he also played for the Geelong Falcons before being drafted.
Geelong themselves have also made no secret of their interest in acquiring the talented midfielder. Steve Johnson has stated that he would be willing to take a pay cut to get him to the Cats (although that might not be necessary), while earlier in the year Mitch Duncan said the playing group would love to have someone of the calibre of Dangerfield at the club.
On the surface, and given past history, the case is fairly strong that Dangerfield will announce he is leaving for Geelong after Adelaide’s season comes to an end. But is it really as cut and dried as that?
Former Demon David Schwarz is one who believes the Cats will have trouble acquiring Dangerfield. Not only due to the club’s team first approach to player’s salaries, but they also have to retain their own players who are coming off contract at season’s end.
“Joel Selwood is the captain and the face of the club, [therefore] Dangerfield shouldn’t be the highest paid player,” Schwarz said recently on SEN.
Another impediment to the imminent signing may also be the Adelaide Football Club.
Until now, no club has exercised its right to match a restricted free agents’ offer, and while Schwarz believes this will remain the case with Dangerfield, News Limited has reported that the Crows were building “a ‘Danger Money’ contingency fund”, which they will use to match Geelong’s offer, and thereby force them to the trade table.
Although this has not been done before, it is suggested the Crows believe the compensation pick they would receive from the AFL would not be enough for a player of Dangerfield’s ability and age – and they are most likely right.
It has also been reported in the media that to get over both of these obstacles, the Cats could offer Dangerfield a heavily front-ended contract that would not only make it more difficult for Adelaide to match their offer, but it would also allow for his average salary over four years to be equal of, or under that of Selwood.
While many have mentioned Steven Motlop as possible trade bait, there are also strong rumours the Cats are interested in captain Joel Selwood’s brother Scott from the West Coast Eagles, Carlton swingman Lachie Henderson and Brisbane’s Matthew Leuenberger – none of whom seem in any hurry to re-sign with their respective clubs.
It would be a major coup if they could somehow pull it off, but it is highly unlikely the Cats can keep their own players coming off contract, and sign Selwood, Henderson, Leuenberger and Dangerfield.
The two other teams that have also been linked to Dangerfield, although nowhere near as strongly as Geelong, are Hawthorn and Collingwood. Both have room to move within their salary cap, and both would also be attractive options for Dangerfield – both on the field and off.
The Magpies have made no secret of the fact that they are interested in acquiring Dangerfield, and with plenty of room to move within their salary cap they are rumoured to have offered him $1.4 million a season to move to the Holden Centre next year.
However they have also been strongly linked to the Giant’s Adam Treloar, and are believed to have offered him a five-year deal, as well as Brisbane’s James Aish.
Although the figure of $1.4 million seems unlikely, there is no doubt that Collingwood will be willing and able to pay Dangerfield more than Geelong will. This of course would make it more difficult for Adelaide to match the offer, as their cap is far tighter than that of Collingwood.
However, if the Crows were able to match the Magpie’s offer, rumours keep surfacing of Matt Scharenberg wanting to return home to South Australia. Although Collingwood’s recruiting manager Derek Hines said on AFL.com.au‘s ‘Road to the Draft’ podcast some two months ago that he was confident of re-signing the talented young defender within a “couple of weeks”, Scharenberg has yet to put pen to paper.
It seems somewhat odd that a player whose club has invested so much in him, despite receiving so little in return (as of yet), would not re-sign with that club as early as possible.
Both Darcy Moore and Jordan de Goey signed two-year extensions recently – well before their current deals expired. If it is because he does want to return home, there is little doubt that an injury free Scharenberg would be of great interest to the Crows.
Even if Adelaide do not match an offer to Dangerfield, he has stated if he does decide to move on that he wants to ensure the Crows receive adequate compensation. Scharenberg and a first round draft pick would most likely be considered by both Dangerfield and the Crows to be a fair outcome.
However if the persistent rumours of Treloar prove to be true, and the Magpies trade their first round draft pick for him, a Dangerfield move to Collingwood could still be possible.
Aish could be on traded to Adelaide for Collingwood’s second round draft pick and a player (possibly Paul Seedsman), while his good mate Scharenberg would join him.
Adelaide get two local boys who were both first round picks, Greater Western Sydney get an important first round selection in this year’s national draft, which they would use for one of their academy players, while the Lions receive a second round draft pick and a player.
And of course the Magpies get Dangerfield and Treloar.
Then there is Hawthorn. If Dangerfield were to go to the Hawks, it would be a bitter blow to the Cats given the intense rivalry between the two sides, not to mention the fact that last year’s biggest free agent in James Frawley also chose the reigning premiers over Geelong.
The Hawks also have the salary cap room to make a play on Dangerfield after Lance Franklin’s departure, and they have yet to offer Brian Lake a contract for 2016. They also have a number of fringe players that cannot make their way into the senior line-up that would probably be playing regular AFL football at most other clubs. So they have trade options that would satisfy both Adelaide and Dangerfield.
However Dangerfield going to Hawthorn would no doubt cause much consternation not only to the Cats and their fans, but also among the lower placed clubs and their supporters.
If the biggest free agents (Franklin 2013, Frawley 2014, Dangerfield 2015), of the last three years went to the current premiers three years in a row, there would surely be many vociferous and very legitimate calls for changes to how free agency operates.
Of course that would not concern the unsociable Hawks, and with Dangerfield added to their already formidable midfield and given where Hawthorn are positioned at present, four premierships in a row would not be out of the question.
Dangerfield has said that whatever his decision it will be based on three things – success on the field, family, and life after football. All three sides can legitimately argue their case on each of these points, and of course he could despite past history decide to stay in Adelaide.
However given the tragic circumstances surrounding Phil Walsh’s death earlier in the season, one would have thought if he were staying he would have re-signed before now. As magnificent as he has been on and off the field since then, his signature in such dark times would have helped lift the spirits of the club and its supporters immeasurably.
Perhaps contrarily, Walsh’s passing reinforced in him how important his family is to him, and after eight loyal years with the Crows he wishes to be closer to home. Who could blame him?
It is also perhaps pertinent to recall that in 2012 the biggest free agent in the land was Franklin. As is currently the case with Dangerfield, throughout that year Buddy continually spoke about how much he loved Hawthorn without actually ever committing himself to the club. And as is the case with Dangerfield and Geelong, the public and the majority of the media had him signed up with Greater Western Sydney the year before.
Of course it is now history that Buddy did indeed eventually announce he was leaving the Hawks for the harbour city at the end of the season; however in one of the most audacious and surprising signings in the history of the game, it was not with the Giants, but their cross city counterparts the Sydney Swans.
Could Patrick Dangerfield be following a similar path to Buddy?
Only time will tell.
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