Croatia are sweating on their progression from the Euro 2016 group stages and face an in-form Spain. In the other Group D match, Czech Republic face Turkey with a good chance of making the knockout rounds.
How does the table look?
Spain, with six points, are sitting pretty atop Group D after back-to-back wins and Croatia follow in second with one draw and one win. The Czech Republic have a point to their name while Turkey bring up the rear with no points and a minus-four goal difference.
Who can still qualify?
All nations can still mathematically qualify, but Spain have guaranteed a place in the knockout stages.
Who’s favourite to qualify?
Spain have already reached the six points needed to qualify, while Croatia only need to draw with Spain to confirm their place in the knockouts.
How can others qualify?
With Spain already assured passage into the knockouts, Croatia have the next easiest route to automatic qualification. They will go through with a point against Spain, but otherwise have to rely on the Czech Republic dropping points to Turkey.
The Czech Republic and Turkey both face uphill battles to automatically qualify and will likely rely on being on of the top placed third teams. For the Czech Republic to finish second they must beat Turkey by two goals and have Spain beat Croatia.
Turkey’s fate is purely in their own hands, to finish third in the group they must beat Czech Republic by two goals. But to give themselves any chance of qualification they must beat them by at least four goals, if not more.
Croatia versus Spain
Croatia came into the tournament as a dark horse capable of upsetting anyone with their midfield trio of Luka Modrić, Ivan Rakitić and Ivan Perišić. A Modrić streamer sealed all three points for them in the opening encounter with Turkey where, similar to their second match against the Czech Republic, they dominated the midfield.
Their second match didn’t go to plan, however. After holding a 2-0 lead going into the final half hour, their own fans disrupted the game with flares, culminating in the Czech Republic converting a last-minute penalty.
Spain dominated their opening match with the Czech Republic and almost left with nothing to show for it, Gerard Pique’s 87th minute header the only thing splitting the sides. Their second match against a woeful Turkey proved to be more fruitful with Alvaro Morata’s double securing an easy 3-0 win for the defending champs.
Off-field issues aside, Croatia pose a threat to Spain and their perfect start to the tournament. The big question will be whether they can put the off-field issues on the backburners to put in the level of performance needed to challenge Spain.
Spain will rest players as they have already qualified by will still produce an XI strong enough to get the job done against a disturbed Croatian side, 2-0 Spain.
Czech Republic versus Turkey
Another two sides with everything to play for in this game, the Czech Republic will feel like they have the form to take maximum points from this clash. After almost completing their defensive masterclass against a strong Spanish side expected to go deep in the tournament, they remained focussed against Croatia to come from 2-0 down and share the honours.
Any side with Petr Čech in goal is going to be difficult to break down, but they also have the attacking power to score goals and close a match out.
A case could be argued for Turkey being one of the flops of the tournament, especially if they were to lose their final match. A team ranked second highest in their group (18th) should be doing better.
Their star man and captain Arda Turan enjoyed a less than successful first season with Barcelona, never nailing down regular game time. While they aren’t a one-man team, it’s clear that his form slump is having a direct impact on the team’s performances.
A win would let them leave with enough respectability, however this won’t be the case. A Czech Republic side with everything to play for will come out and put a final nail in Turkey’s coffin with a 1-0 victory.
Final verdict
Spain will go through unbeaten with nine out of a possible nine points. One of the most surprising results of the group stages will be the Czech Republic on four points pipping Croatia to second spot on goal difference.
Croatia will still be almost guaranteed a spot in the knockouts as a highest ranked third place finisher. Turkey will return home with their tail between their legs with no points and an embarrassing negative goal difference.
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