With the Lions being South Africa’s last realistic bastion of hope in terms of Super Rugby silverware, it was with great confusion and incredulity when Johan Ackermann named his side to face the Jaguares over the past weekend.
The permutations were simple enough, win and you guarantee home advantage for the playoffs until you lose, and perhaps play a less dangerous opponent in the Quarter Finals.
At first I thought Ackermann had taken a needless gamble, why not change at least half your team then if you’re keen to give some players a break? Or rest identified key individuals? In the same way the All Blacks do. That way there would be at least a semblance of continuity, familiarity of player combinations and your frontline players could still be rested, when all the Lions needed was a losing bonus point to cement top spot on the overall table.
I was utterly gobsmacked as I am sure most ardent rugby fans were upon hearing that over 20 changes had occurred to his squad to fly out to Argentina. I rashly thought, “What the hell is he doing?” I mean with so much on the line regarding the playoff landscape, surely you would want your best possible team suiting up?
I thought his gamble was exactly that, more naive than anything else. Considering the consequences of playing against a Sharks team, who were vanquished in both derbies comfortably by the Lions during the regular season. As opposed to facing the seven time champions Crusaders, who beat the Lions at Ellis Park on their tour of South Africa earlier in the year.
However after reading New Zealand Herald’s Chief Rugby journalist Gregor Paul piece on the Lions after their defeat, I’ve had a change of heart after what he had to say:
“Supposedly, Lions coach Johan Ackermann will now be regretful and embarrassed that his second-string side failed to secure the single point they needed and instead of playing the Sharks, now face the Crusaders. But that implies Ackermann’s gamble was reckless and ill thought out – which it wasn’t.
“He took a calculated risk knowing that the worst case scenario was not one to be overly concerned about. Every way he looked, the right thing to do was to keep his best players at home. What he knew before playing the Jaguares was that the Lions were guaranteed to finish no lower than second.”
Thus Ackermann knew most of all the permutations concerning his side, he correctly deduced seeing the Crusaders (albeit surprisingly) getting caned (excuse the pun) by the Hurricanes, his troops would be rested and refreshed for whichever opposition turned up in weeks’ time.
Thus his gamble was anything but reckless, instead it was calculated. Even if they did lose the match it wouldn’t have the terrible bearing we as pundits and supporters might have first thought.
Perhaps in a bizarre way, you might see the Lions gaining from having to play the Crusaders as opposed to the Sharks; firstly from a travel point of view the Crusaders could only get a flight out to the Republic on Tuesday.
This means they’ll only arrive on Wednesday after an arduous flight and still be banged up physically after their titanic clash with the Hurricanes. They will also be without game breaker Nemai Nandolo and Andy Ellis who have been lost to injury.
The Sharks would have had a simple one hour flight, no time zone crossing and have also grown in confidence since the International break with two decent victories.
Make no mistake, the Lions will have to be as tactically astute as they have ever been when facing the Crusaders, as well as meticulously study the footage and realise where they went wrong in their decision making and game plan from the previous fixture.
Their previous encounter was one of the games of the season, however the Lions were guilty of not picking their moments and at times approached the game with a run-at-all-costs mentality.
What Ackermann and his brainstrust need to instruct to their players is when to run and when to kick at stages in the contest, game management in a nutshell. While that sounds obvious, it is the critical timing of the players’ decisions which will decide whether the Lions are in the final four or not.
The Crusaders and any Kiwi team for that matter, will severely punish errant kicks and turn over ball, bad or naive decision making in a nutshell, especially considering the limited chances a team gets in knockout rugby.
Accuracy and game management would be my key phrases to the team this weekend. They shouldn’t abandon their playing philosophy which has served them so well this season; but the players need to understand they need to be wise and learn from their mistakes which cost them last time round.
If the Lions do go onto beat the Crusaders, you can certainly see them making a massive fist of the final four.
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