The Canberra Raiders will be looking to bounce back from a first-week loss as they play host to the resurgent Penrith Panthers in the second week of NRL finals.
Both sides had massive back-ends to their season to surge towards the finals, but it’s been the unexpected rise of the Raiders that has shaken up the comp this year.
Canberra ended up finishing second in the standings, but a heartbreaking two-point loss to the Sharks in the qualifying final has knocked them ever so slightly onto the back foot.
The right boot of James Maloney took the lead for the Sharks in the dying minutes to sink the home fans, forcing the men in green into a play-off with the Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Panthers snuck home into sixth on points difference in the latter rounds of the competition to book their ticket to the finals.
They looked strong in their fiery win over the Bulldogs last week, avoiding the chop with a 16-point win.
The Panthers and Raiders have been two of the most entertaining football sides of the year, with a real emphasis on attack.
While both sides have put on some of the best performances of the season, they’re still underdogs among the Storm, Cowboys, Broncos, and Sharks.
A huge injury cloud hangs over Canberra leading into the game, with two of their biggest assets in doubt.
Despite a hand and ankle injury respectively, Blake Austin and Josh Hodgson have both been named, but won’t be a certainty until kickoff.
Hodgson suffered ligament damage and bone bruising when he rolled his ankle against the Sharks last week and has given himself a “slim chance” to play.
Austin suffered a hand injury during training before the Round 26 game against Manly, and is still in doubt.
The only actual change for the side that lost to the Sharks is Sam Williams, who has been dropped at the expense of Austin’s return.
For Penrith, coach Anthony Griffin has kept the same side that beat the Bulldogs last week, with the addition of Moses Leota as 18th man in an extended squad.
The right edge
Joseph Leilua and Jordan Rapana have become one of the most destructive combinations in the NRL this season, causing havoc down the Raiders’ go-to right flank.
Rapana on the wing has been the main beneficiary of the pairing, racking up 21 tries and a competition-high 24 line breaks.
He’s been set up time and time again though by Leilua, who sits second in the comp for offloads this season, with 66, playing a huge hand in Rapana’s line breaks.
There’s a reason Canberra scored the most points this year, and that right edge has played a huge part. Their form will be key.
Jarrod Croker
The 26-year-old is having a season to remember in what has been a criminally underrated career.
He’s the leading point-scorer in the competition by nearly a full hundred points, and his tally of 282 is only 23 off the entire Newcastle Knights’ season. He’s also snuck his way into fifth on the try scorer’s leaderboard, with 17 for the year.
Croker has led the Raiders from the front in 2016, showing his side how to play and causing headaches all over the park.
Penrith will need to cut his running game down, and avoid penalties basically anywhere in their own half because the Croker kicking game is thriving at the moment.
The Viking Clap
Also known as the most aggressive clap in the sporting world, ‘The Viking Clap’ has been adopted by the Raiders faithful after the success of the Icelandic soccer team during the recent Euros in France.
The Nordic fans brought the clap to the global stage, and the Green Machine have fittingly followed suit, bringing home that Viking-Raider connection.
It builds the team and, if anything, is a vessel to pump up the 13 men on the park and get them psyched for the contest. It’s a real fuel for the players, adds to the atmosphere, and to the home ground advantage.
Their young players
There’s no other side in the competition that has had such an explosive rush of young talent come through and perform at the highest level.
Players like Josh Mansour (26), Matt Moylan (25) and Tyrone Peachey (25) have been backed up by Nathan Cleary (18) and Bryce Cartwright (21) as the next generation of Chocolate Soldiers.
A free-flowing, attacking style has been their trademark in 2016, putting on some of the most entertaining displays of footy across the whole season. And while the almost reckless play has endeared them to many footy fans, it’s also netted results.
That youth and exuberance is key for their finals campaign.
Gus’ five-year plan
Phil Gould implemented his five-year plan for the Panthers when he was appointed general manager back in 2011, meaning time is almost up.
The pinnacle of the plan was supposed to be a premiership, which they can still very much achieve.
The pressure of the expected payoff isn’t good for the players, but the motivation certainly is. They need to go out on the park and prove that they aren’t a joke, that their ambitions back in 2011 shouldn’t have been scoffed at.
A good chunk of this roster wasn’t even at the Panthers when the plan was brought in, but their clubs pride is on the line regardless, so they need to carry that into the contest and use it as fuel.
The Viking Clap
The simultaneous overhead hand-smash is not only a key for the Raiders, but also the Panthers. In the way it gets the home side ramped up, it’s also intimidating for a visiting side; a representation of aggression and hostility towards them.
Last week, Ben Barba said “it’s pretty scary”, with Mick Ennis adding “it provides a daunting atmosphere” for the players.
The key for the visitors is to block it out. Simple. If they can keep the home crowd out of their heads, then they’re already doing better than most teams this year that made the cold trip to Canberra.
The Raiders have been shot out of a cannon, going on a point-scoring spree to be in a position that’s escaped them in recent years.
Their form has been enough to make Ricky Stuart smile, and that is one rare feat, but they’re up against not only a strong side but an unpredictable one.
Canberra have been one of, if not the top sides of the NRL in 2016 though, and their path to the grand final should continue in what could be one of the best, most free-flowing, attacking games of the year.
Raiders to win by 18
Kickoff: 7:40pm (AEST)
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
Referee: Ben Cummins
TV: Live on Nine and Fox Sports 1
Betting: Raiders $1.83, Panthers $2
Overall record: Played 69, Raiders 34, Panthers 34, Draw 1
Record at venue: Played 26, Raiders 18, Panthers 8Raiders
1 Jack Wighton 2 Edrick Lee 3 Jarrod Croker (c) 4 Joseph Leilua 5 Jordan Rapana 6 Blake Austin 7 Aidan Sezer 8 Junior Paulo 9 Josh Hodgson 10 Shannon Boyd 11 Josh Papalii 12 Elliot Whitehead 13 Iosia Soliola Interchange: 14 Kurt Baptiste 15 Luke Bateman 16 Clay Priest 17 Joseph TapinePanthers
1 Matthew Moylan (c) 2 Joshua Mansour 3 Waqa Blake 4 Tyrone Peachey 5 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6 Bryce Cartwright 7 Nathan Cleary 8 Leilani Latu 9 Peter Wallace 10 Suaia Matagi 11 Isaah Yeo 12 James Fisher-Harris 13 Trent Merrin Interchange: 14 Sitaleki Akauola 15 Jeremy Latimore 16 Christopher Grevsmuhl 17 Zak Hardaker 20 Moses Leota
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