Bryce Gibbs: Carlton’s saviour, just not in the traditional way. The Blues must let their privileged asset go – and they must make this off-season a winner. (Click to Tweet)

After hitting the turn at 6-6, Carlton proceeded to win one more game to end the year in 14th place.

Seven wins was a much better return than all but the most optimistic fans expected.

On the back of a well-crafted zone defence, a want to possess the ball, and the full commitment of the playing group, the Blues shaved three goals a game off of their defensive game.

Carlton ended the year with a time in possession differential of +1.2 minutes per game, albeit down from a top six rating of +4.2 minutes per game in the first 12 games. They suffered three blowout losses (a loss by the average AFL margin plus one standard deviation) – half the number of last season.

The tactical revolution bought by head coach Brendon Bolton was precisely that.

They began the year playing with most of their veterans in the side, driven by some combination of a desire to improve the culture of the place and injuries to their crop of draftees. As the season progressed, the keys were turned over to the youngsters, with predictable results. In many ways, finishing the year with one win from ten games, after banking six victories in the first half, was the perfect year.

There is plenty to be positive about: Sam Docherty’s transformation to an intercepting half back, Patrick Cripps’ continued evolution into a scarier version of Josh Kennedy, Jacob Weitering holding down a spot in defence, Lachie Plowman doing the same, Liam Jones only playing eight games, Jack Silvagni kicking almost a goal a game as an 18-year-old in a forward line affording no protection, Matthew Kreuzer playing 21 games (the most since 2009), and Bryce Gibbs playing as a true centreman at an elite level.

Equally, there is plenty of work to be done. The Blues spluttered to the August finishing line with a percentage of 73 in their final ten games, their offence is a complete mess, and the list situation remains out of kilter with where the team sits in the league’s macro environment.

This was Carlton’s front six in their Round 23 loss to Essendon.

One assumes 2015 draftees Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay will come into the line up, but before factoring in any trades or further list changes, that’s it. That is it. It remains a significant challenge.

The longest journey…
Two veterans, Andrew Walker and Michael Jamieson, have retired, along with Cameron Wood, and have been followed out the door by Matthew Dick, Jayden Foster and Clem Smith.

If they are the only delistings, which is unlikely to be the case but for now it is, Carlton will have ten players aged 28 or older on their 2017 full list – and two players who miss that mark by a fortnight or less.

Carlton’s group of 15 players that are 24 or under have a combined AFL experience of 364 games, or around a season worth of AFL games each. The group of 19 players who are 25 or older hold 2101 games of experience. To do the fashionable thing, the Western Bulldogs have 637 games sitting in their 22 players aged 24 or under, and 2235 in their 18 players 25 or older – pending required delistings, of course.

The Dogs are a special case of course, although one that shows the way forward for Carlton. When the Dogs committed to a rebuild, they committed hard, making move after judicious move. So far, Carlton are yet to shown signs of taking this same path.

There remains a mountain of work to be done to turn around the list. The brains trust at Visy Park is aware of this of course – I alone have written an article with this as a central tenet four times in the past 15 months.

Potting the Blues has been something of a national pastime for the past two seasons, albeit the license to do so expired over the course of their strong start to the season. I wrote in the middle of the year that this was the Blues’ “off field reset season”, and that the real work must begin now.

That’s where this week’s news, that two of Carlton’s most valuable trade chips in 28-year-old (in 2017) Bryce Gibbs and 27.99-year-old (his birthday falls just after the league year ends) Zach Tuohy wish to be moved to other clubs, should bring joy to the hearts of Bluebaggers everywhere.

Let’s get this fire started

In many ways, Gibbs’ departure is the start of the build that Carlton need. He is part of the priority-pick haul of the mid-2000s, the meat in the sandwich of Marc Murphy and Matthew Kreuzer. Without a shadow of a doubt, he is Carlton’s most valuable fungible asset; Patrick Cripps probably has a higher trade value, but he is also probably the most untradeable player in the league from his team’s perspective.

Gibbs ticks so many trade value boxes: he’s in his prime, is contracted for another three seasons, he is never injured, and he can play a variety of roles at a very high to elite level.

The Blues’ number four has missed a total of 16 games in his ten-year career, and 12 of those came in 2015 when he torn a pectoral muscle – defined as a contact injury, rather than a soft tissue injury. That is insane; he’s missed 1.6 games per year, and if his 2015 is taken out that’s four games in nine freaking years. His health cannot be down to luck alone, and so a suitor will be buying a player with at least 100 games, and probably a whole heap more, left on the odometer.

He is the trade that should have been on the agenda as a first order of business for Stephen Silvagni in the 2015 offseason. Fortunately, Gibbs had an excellent year, and his value did not diminish. Even more fortunately, it emerged that Gibbs’ requested trade destination, Adelaide, are a Gibbs-type short of becoming a complete team.

The Crows blitzed their way into a double chance against most pundit predictions, before a last-round stumble against West Coast saw them dip into the elimination round. A trip to Sydney proved too much in the end, and their 2016 run ended. While the Crows had excellent health all year, there’s nothing to suggest what they achieved was a one-off.

Their one weakness is depth through the middle of the ground. The Crows are stacked at both ends of the ground, overflowing with forwards and backs of all shapes and sizes. Bringing in a midfielder of Gibbs’ calibre is hand-in-glove sort of stuff.

Gibbs would fit with the Crows’ style perfectly: his ability to roam the ground, defend in defensive 50 when required, and to play both inside and out would provide significant midfield flexibility. Rory Sloane emerged as a midfielder in a similar mould to Gibbs in 2016 as the Crows switched scheme, and a pairing of these two should whet the appetite of football aficionados everywhere.

Herein lies the rub. Adelaide have a surplus of forwards and really need an A-grade midfielder. Carlton need talent, but particularly forward line talent. There is no question that the Crows would have to part with their first round pick (pick 13, which will drop a few spots with academy bidding in play), but the remainder of the deal remains up in the air.

The Crows reportedly offered wantaway Jarryd Lyons, which the Blues reportedly rejected. Carlton have reportedly asked for Jake Lever, to which the Crows have categorically rejected – rightly, too, given Lever’s potential puts him in a similar untradeable class as Carlton’s Cripps.

Instead, Carlton should be aggressive, and seek one of Adelaide’s forwards that isn’t the captain or a former player: Mitch McGovern, Charlie Cameron, Tom Lynch or Josh Jenkins. That list is presented in order of palatability for the Crows – in my view at least. There are holes everywhere you look at the Blues, but none more so than in the forward line.

As for Tuohy, the path is a bit more winding. Unlike Gibbs, the Irishman’s future playing capacity is more clouded given the late start to his career and his background, but it is worth noting he’s played every game for the Blues since Round 18, 2012. His 2016 was his best year, averaging 20 touches as a pacey, long-range kicking, rebounding defender. Tuohy is out of contract.

He came to the club as a sixth-round selection in the 2010 rookie draft, and that he’s been able to develop into a player with trade value should mean the chance to realise that value cannot be missed. Flipping a speculative sixth-round rookie pick into anything should be cause for celebration.

Tuohy is seeking a move to the Cats. The recent retirement of Corey Enright, and shaky play of small-medium defenders Tom Ruggles and Jed Bews, means Tuohy fills an immediate gap in a Geelong team whose current window is as open as it’ll ever be next year. Jackson Thurlow should return from injury next season – before injury Cats fans rated him very highly in a rebounding defender role.

Where it gets complicated is the Cats’ desire to bring in Richmond veteran Brett Deledio, who has a year to run on a five-year deal signed in 2012. The value of that deal has never been estimated in public, but it would be somewhere north of $600,000 for a player of his calibre.

I can see the fit, but personally, I would be more inclined to pursue Tuohy to fill the most pressing need on the list: pace down back. Adding Tuohy and the returning Thurlow would give Geelong a level of drive from the back half they sorely missed this year, where adding Deledio would give some extra potency in the forward half. The Cats’ forward line is in need of a spruce up, but a 30-year-old Deledio may not be the most efficient answer.

So, again, the Blues should be aggressive, and pursue a deal to send Tuohy to the Cattery quickly, before any potential Deledio deal becomes a circus. The Cats have no picks, so Carlton should seek out a good, young player and a later pick to get the job done. Geelong should be willing to deal given the void Tuohy could fill, and the salary relief that could be afforded to help them land Deledio.

What about the draft

Carlton have also been linked to the entire Greater Western Sydney list. Caleb Marchbank and small forward Jarrod Pickett have both indicated they’d like to reunite with Silvagni at the Blues, while there are mumblings about another five-for-one player-for-pick swap involving a number of Giants who haven’t been able to break into the blue-chip laden line-up – I’m not at all convinced it’s a thing.

Marchbank should be priority number one, and the Blues should be content to give up pick five for the highly rated key defender. He and Weitering can grow together, and become the most terrifying defensive duo in the game.

Pickett is something of an unknown quantity at AFL level, despite being taken at number four in 2014. The small forward has kicked close to two goals a game in the NEAFL, but spent much of this season nursing a Lisfranc fracture. Pickett had an extra year added to his rookie contract last year as is the practice with most high picks these days, but his nomination of a destination despite never playing an AFL game for the Giants is a little galling.

Despite the prospect of receiving Adelaide’s pick 13 in a deal for Gibbs, bringing both players in and retaining access to the draft will be a challenge for Silvagni and Co. Carlton hold their standard 14th placed hand of picks: five, 24 and 43, and the Giants aren’t going to be interested in picks that are outside of the first round given they’re already loaded. The Blues could leverage their 2017 pick, but that has risks in itself given the broader state of their list.

It looms as an interesting dilemma; will a rebuilding team punt the first round of the draft, and back their list manager in?

Regardless, three days into the 2016 trade period and it looks as though Carlton may have the off season they should have had in 2015. It’s time for Carlton to be aggressive, assert itself on the AFL trade landscape, and begin the real list build that everyone knows the club needs.

Gibbs was thought to be Carlton’s saviour in the late 2000s. He just might be a pivotal part of the next Blues premiership team. Just not in the way anyone expected.