The word on the street is that Yasir Shah will have Australia’s batting line-up for breakfast this summer.
Pakistan’s leg spinner is considered the best of his craft in the world, with some even comparing him to Shane Warne.
Shah’s debut Test series against the Aussies in 2014 returned 12 wickets at the highly impressive average of 17.25.
In that two-Test series, he dismissed Steve Smith on three occasions.
Shah holds the distinction of being the quickest Pakistan bowler to reach 50 Test wickets – beating greats such as Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis and Imran Khan, among others – achieving the feat in just nine matches.
Having now played 20 Tests, Yasir has secured 116 wickets at the superb average – particularly for a leg spinner – of 27.89.
Though that average may be inferior to Warne, it is superior to the likes of Anil Kumble, Stuart MacGill and most recent leg spinners.
Given Australia’s recent woes against the spinning ball, we should be very concerned about the prospect of our fragile batsmen facing Shah. Or should we?
Delving deeper into statistics suggests that this claim is not as black and white as the above figures would argue.
Fortunately for Shah, of his twenty Tests, just five have been played away from the dust bowls of the subcontinent and Pakistan’s quasi-home in the UAE.
In the fifteen ‘home’ matches, Yasir has taken 97 wickets at the excellent average of 24.75.
However, in the five away Tests, Yasir has taken 19 wickets at the distinctly poor average of 43.95.
Have our concerns evaporated yet? If we ignore Yasir’s stats in Asia for a minute (which isn’t entirely fair on him but it is reasonable for this exercise), we are facing the prospect of facing a spin bowler this summer with a Test bowling average of 43.95.
Hardly a prospect that will have Smith, Warner and co. sleeping uneasily at night.
Statistically, it’s almost the equivalent of facing a Mark Craig – and we know how many problems he posed to our batsmen.
Shah may not have performed consistently in England or New Zealand (though against England he did snare a ten-wicket match haul, but he still averaged over 40 for the series), but maybe his fortunes in Australia will be closer to his dominant performances in Asia.
Let’s analyse the performances of some of the most lethal subcontinent spin bowlers who have arrived on our shores in the past decade or two.
Surely the biggest kingpin of them all, Muttiah Muralitharan, the man with 800 Test wickets at an average of 22.72, would have dominated in all conditions?
Wrong.
He certainly dominated in most conditions, but in Australia, he was quite the trundler. 12 wickets at 75 indicates just how impotent Murali was on Australian pitches.
What about the current world number one Test bowler, Ravi Ashwin?
Ashwin, who has 235 Test wickets at 24.75, trumped the Australians in India three years ago, with 22 wickets at 21.
But how has he fared in Australia? It’s a similar story I’m afraid – 21 wickets at 55.
While this doesn’t bode well for Shah, the aforementioned pair are off spin bowlers. For what may possibly be a more accurate idea of how Yasir’s fortunes will play out this summer, let’s take a look at some subcontinental leg spinners who have journeyed to our shores.
The most obvious of course is Anil Kumble, the Indian with 619 Test wickets at 29.65. In comparison to the aforementioned spin bowlers, Kumble performed reasonably well in Australia taking 49 wickets at 37.73.
However, let’s be honest, an average of 37.73 for a bowler isn’t impressive.
I would also argue that Kumble’s style of bowling with a considerable amount of overspin at a quickish pace suited Australian pitches more than most. The bounce he generated at times proving difficult to handle.
Shah is more of a traditional leg spinner so perhaps a comparison with Danish Kaneria, Shahid Afridi or Imran Tahir is more reasonable.
Kaneria in Australian conditions managed 24 wickets at 40.58.
Afridi secured zero wickets for 115 runs conceded.
And Tahir? Zero wickets for 260 runs conceded – still little evidence to support Yasir’s upcoming destruction of Australia.
Of course, it is not all doom and gloom for Yasir.
Perhaps he can get some tips off the following leg spin bowlers who performed comparatively well in Australia – Sri Lankan Upul Chandana with 12 wickets at 22.50 and Shah’s compatriot Mushtaq Ahmed, who had 22 wickets at 33.59.
Yet unfortunately, the success stories are very rare.
Shah will likely bowl plenty of overs in Australia this summer as we rack up large totals on flat decks. He will take wickets, but on past evidence it is hard to see him picking up wickets at a respectable average.
Suggestions about the threat he poses to our batsmen this summer can be put down to media hype based on overall statistics.
Statistics without context, rendering them close to meaningless.
Once we delve a little deeper, it is safe to say Shah (and not the Aussie batsmen) is in for a tough summer.
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