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New Zealand vs Australia: First ODI preview and prediction

Australian batsman Aaron Finch walks after he is bowled by New Zealand’s Tim Southee (AP Photo Ross Setford)
Expert
28th January, 2017
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5510 Reads

While the tour of India might be around the corner, Australia have more limited over assignments to complete first and New Zealand will be on the hunt for revenge on home soil in the three-match ODI return series after being thumped earlier in the summer.

When the Black Caps toured Australia for three ODI matches earlier in the summer, last year in fact, it was an absolute destruction as the Aussies found their touch after being beaten by South Africa to kick the home summer off.

It was a much-needed boost for the men from the land down under at the time, and has helped them build through the second half of their summer, thumping Pakistan in both formats of the game.

New Zealand, on the other hand have shown none of the shakiness against, albeit a much lower opposition in Bangladesh back at home, not dropping any of their eight matches to them across all three formats.

While it was against Bangladesh, there were some impressive siges of form from many of their players, and with an eye on an upcoming long tour from South Africa – one the Kiwis will desperately want to perform well in at home – this is another important opportunity to find form for them.

Despite the fact Australia got a 3-0 victory at home earlier in the summer and have continued their one-day form in a big way with a 4-1 beating of Pakistan, never really looking behind in any of their wins, playing across the ditch will be a completely different – and more difficult challenge.

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That challenge is made all the more difficult with Australia opting to rest David Warner, having Steve Smith injured and to a lesser extent by sending Usman Khawaja to Dubai in an attempt to get him in-form on Sub-continental spin-friendly tracks for the upcoming tour of India.

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Aaron Finch, who has been named to replace Warner at the top of the order provides little in the way of runs against New Zealand though, averaging 7.5 against the little brother.

Australia do have a close to full strength bowling attack though, and it’s going to need to fire all series long with Kane Williamson – who is undoubtedly one of the best in the world – leading the charge for the Black Caps.

Williamson will be joined by the experienced Martin Guptill, Tom Latham and the big-hitting Colin Munro, who all are capable of making consistent big scores, turning New Zealand into a damaging batting outfit.

In New Zealand conditions, which often suit swing bowling, the new ball is going to be of vital importance and could be what decides the match – simply put, there isn’t much coming back from losing three or four wickets in the powerplay.

While scores can be made on the smaller grounds – particularly in this match at the square Eden Park – surving that new ball period is paramount to success.

History

Last five meetings
December 9 2016 – Australia won by 117 runs at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
December 6 2016 – Australia won by 116 runs at Manuka Oval, Canberra
December 4 2016 – Australia won by 68 runs at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
February 8 2016 – New Zealand won by 55 runs at Seddon Park, Hamilton
February 6 2016 – Australia won by 4 wickets at Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Last five series
2016 – Australia defeat New Zealand 3-0 (in Australia)
2016 – New Zealand defeat Australia 2-1 (in New Zealand)
2015 – New Zealand defeat Australia 1-0 (world cup)
2011 – Australia defeat New Zealand 1-0 (world cup)
2010 – Australia defeat New Zealand 3-2 (in New Zealand)

Kane Williamson is the man for New Zealand
As talked about in the opening speil, Kane Williamson is one of the best batsmen in the world across all three formats, and while there is pressure on the New Zealand skipper to succeed, he normally does so with flying colours.

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The fact he averages 50 in Test cricket and 46 at a strike rate of 83 in one-day cricket is a testament to exactly how good he is with eight centuries and 27 half centuries to his name.

The only critique which could be levelled at Williamson is his inability to constantly pick off singles and keep his strike rate up near the 100. He also occasionally struggles to go up the gears late in an innings, and it tends to hurt the Kiwis a little bit, especially when they are chasing a big total.

Nonetheless, Williamson is a solid captain in the field and constantly scores runs, holding an end down so others can be extremely aggressive around him. While it didn’t work in Australia, don’t expect the same to come from the Kiwi batting on home soil.

New Zealand's Kane Williamson

Who stands up in the absence of David Warner and Steve Smith?
Look, no beating around the bush here – David Warner is a monumental loss for the Australians as they embark on this three-match tour of New Zealand.

He has scored four ODI centuries already this summer and in each match, he has been the dominant force, guiding Australia to an easy as you like victory every time.

While others have had to stand up when he hasn’t fired, he has hit better than a run-a-ball centuries in half of Australia’s ODI matches and simply been dangerous.

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Steve Smith has also been ruled out with an ankle injury, meaning the batting depth of Australia will be serverely tested.

So, who stands up without them there to provide the runs?

There is no obvious answer for how to replace that level of production in the side, but opportunities have presented themselves for other batsmen in the side, like Shaun Marsh and Peter Handscomb, likely to be at the top of the order.

Marsh is making his return to international cricket after an injury, and Handscomb trying to cement his spot in the ODI side, while Glenn Maxwell could also do with a big boost of runs. Travis Head has also been in some good form and is coming off a big century.

One way or another, someone needs to stand up at the top of the order to build a platform for Glenn Maxwell and co in the middle.

Patrick Cummins will be dangerous in New Zealand conditions
One of the more exciting storylines to follow in this series will be watching Patrick Cummins go to work in the swing friendly New Zealand conditions.

Given the strong form he has been in at home during the eight ODIs Australia have played throughout the summer, and the likely resting of Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc (more on this later) throughout the series, there is considerable pressure on him to be the spearhead for the attack.

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He bowls with pace and can swing the ball plenty, so he could be extremely dangerous and with early wickets being so important, it only heightens the role he will play.

Pat Cummins Australia Cricket

But… so will Tim Southee and Trent Boult
While Australia have Cummins – and their strike weapons Starc and Hazlewood on tour – New Zealand also have their experienced opening bowler combination of Tim Southee and Trent Boult.

The pair have a huge role to play in this series and will be out to recapture the form they found at home during the 2015 World Cup as a new ball pairing, with mixed results coming for the pace bowlers ever since.

Playing against Australia is always a yardstick for cricket in New Zealand, so they will be more than keen to stand up and be counted in this series.

Aaron Finch – how many more chances?
There is a line of thought that says even though Finch was picked in the squad, he still isn’t in the best XI, even with Warner and Khawaja out of action.

This should ring even more true with his horrific average against New Zealand – but while we all know Finch can hit a ball, he has never performed to the level he is capable of in the Australian colours, averaging just 35 with the stick.

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A series like this is an important opportunity for Finch to find some form, but it may be his last chance as well to regain his place as a permanent opening batsman in the Aussie side, with Khawaja and Head both forming options.

Head may well open alongside Shaun Marsh in this series though, who has been picked to make his way back into international cricket, limiting the opportunities of Finch.

Either way, it’s going to be an intriguing little story to follow.

Australia's Aaron Finch leaves the field after scoring 5 runs during the second 20Twenty international cricket match between England and Australia at the Riverside Ground, Chester-Le-Street, northeast England, on August 31, 2013. England, after losing the toss, made 195 for five in the second and final Twenty20 international at Chester-le-Street. AFP PHOTO/ANDREW YATES

How will Australia’s rotation policy work during the series?
The interesting thing about the Australian squad selection for this series is that both Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood have been selected.

Both have had a demanding summer of cricket and are going to be on their way straight to India after this series, so to seem them playing in all three matches would be a little bit of a surprise.

Matthew Wade won’t have an option as he is the only keeper on tour.

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It’s difficult to see Starc or Hazlewood playing more than a match each, which presents some solid opportunities for the quick bowlers – James Faulker, Billy Stanlake and of course, Patrick Cummins.

Key Information

First ball: 9am (AEDT) – 11am (NZST)
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
TV: Live, Fox Sports (Aus), Sky Sports (NZ)
Online: Foxtel Go or Foxtel Play (Aus)
Betting: Australia $1.53, New Zealand $2.50
Overall Record: Played 133, Australia 90, New Zealand 37, no result 6
Last five: Australia 4, New Zealand 1

Squads

New Zealand (squad)
Kane Williamson (c), Tom Blundell (wk), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Colin de Grandhomme, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, James Neesham, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ross Taylor

Australia (squad)
Pat Cummins, James Faulkner, Aaron Finch, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade (wk), Adam Zampa

Hours of play

Start (AEDT) Finish (AEDT) Start (local) Finish (local)
1st Innings 9:00 AM 12:30 PM 11:00 AM 2:30 PM
Break 12:30 PM 1:15 PM 2:30 PM 3:15 PM
2nd Innings 1:15 PM 4:45 PM 3:15 PM 6:45 PM

Prediction

New Zealand are always going to be a difficult side to beat at home, and Australia must get off to a good start. Without David Warner, who is somewhere near his best form though, that challenge gets a little more difficult.

It’s tough to have faith in Aaron Finch, and although Travis Head has been firing he has a mountain of pressure on to get Australia off to a reasonable start with their lack of batting depth.

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If they can do that and their bowlers can utilise the conditions, they remain a chance, but New Zealand will have all the answers.

Martin Guptill is capable of producing a big score and despite Australia winning in New Zealand last year, Kane Williamson seems to be in form, their youngsters firing and beyond that – Southee and Boult bring a wealth of experience.

While the match and series should be a good battle, Australia are up against it to get an early win.

New Zealand in a close one.

Don’t forget The Roar will have a live blog of each and every day played by the Australian national team as well as highlights throughout the match.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

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