The 2017 finals kick off with a matchup we haven’t seen since Round 1 – the Adelaide Crows hosting the GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval.
The winner gets a golden ticket to the grand final in the form of a home preliminary final, the loser must take the long way around to make it to the last Saturday of September.
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» Finals forecast: Adelaide vs GWS
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» Crystal Ball predictions from the team
That meeting in the first week of the year radically defied expectations – most were expecting a season of stagnation from the Crows, and the Giants came into 2017 as flag favourites.
But Adelaide showed that you don’t have to make a big off-season splash to improve as a team, and as for the Giants, they were just well below expectations.
In the end it was quite an embarrassing afternoon for Leon Cameron and his men, belted by almost ten goals. That result, and the fact they’ve had no chance to avenge it, would surely have stuck in the Giants’ craw during the season. Now they get their chance.
And what a chance it is – due to a horribly timed case of appendicitis, Adelaide are missing their best and most important player in Rory Sloane.
GWS have issues of their own, having lost Devon Smith to injury, and making the bold choice to drop Steve Johnson – but those concerns pale in comparison to Sloane’s absence.
Before the teams came out I would’ve said that the Crows should win fairly comfortably, but such a blow to Adelaide has opened the door for the Giants more than enough to make this one a genuine thriller.
Last five matches
Round 1, 2017 – Adelaide Crows 22.15.147 defeated GWS Giants 14.7.91 at Adelaide Oval
Round 10, 2016 – Adelaide Crows 15.17.107 defeated GWS Giants 13.7.85 at Adelaide Oval
Round 8, 2015 – GWS Giants 16.12.108 defeated Adelaide Crows 12.12.84 at Spotless Stadium
Round 16, 2014 – GWS Giants 9.18.77 defeated by Adelaide Crows 20.20.140 at Spotless Stadium
Round 5, 2014 – Adelaide Crows 21.11.137 defeated GWS Giants 10.12.72 at Adelaide Oval
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Adelaide Crows
IN: Daniel Talia, Taylor Walker, Hugh Greenwood
OUT: Wayne Milera (Omitted), Rory Sloane (Illness), Alex Keath (Omitted)B: Rory Laird, Daniel Talia, Luke Brown
HB: Jake Kelly, Kyle Hartigan, David Mackay
C: Brodie Smith, Brad Crouch, Rory Atkins
HF: Tom Lynch, Taylor Walker, Charlie Cameron
F: Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins, Mitch McGovern
FOL: Sam Jacobs, Richard Douglas, Matt Crouch
I/C: Riley Knight, Jake Lever, Hugh Greenwood, Paul Seedsman
EMG: Scott Thompson, Andy Otten, Wayne MileraGWS Giants
IN: Matt de Boer, Harrison Himmelberg
OUT: Devon Smith (Knee), Steve Johnson (Omitted)B: Adam Tomlinson, Phil Davis, Heath Shaw
HB: Nathan Wilson, Aidan Corr, Brett Deledio
C: Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, Tom Scully
HF: Josh Kelly, Jeremy Cameron, Rory Lobb
F: Toby Greene, Jonathon Patton, Matt de Boer
FOL: Shane Mumford, Stephen Coniglio, Jacob Hopper
I/C: Nick Haynes, Harrison Himmelberg, Zac Williams, Dylan Shiel
EMG: Tim Taranto, Steve Johnson, Harry Perryman
How much worse is losing than winning?
A team’s preference is always going to be to win a qualifying final, but there’s been a bit of debate already this week about how a second bye affects the teams that do.
In 2016 both of the teams that won qualifying finals and had a week off lost their preliminary finals despite the home ground advantage and week’s rest.
Comparatively, you could count on one hand the number of times that happened to even a single qualifying final winner in the 15 years beforehand.
We probably don’t have enough of a sample size for this debate yet, but the other aspect that must be considered is how the finals draw is likely to play out.
Consider this: would you rather play a preliminary final at home against Sydney (the likely scenario for the winner), or on the road against Geelong or Richmond (the likely scenario for the loser).
If it were me, I’m honestly thinking the latter is preferable – especially for GWS, who would have no real home advantage over the Swans. Maybe, maybe not – either way, the long game is far from over even for the loser of this one.
Can the Giants win it on the road?
How many of this year’s top eight teams did GWS beat when playing outside of NSW/ACT? One. The West Coast Eagles.
How many in 2016? One. North Melbourne. How many in all their years before that? Zilch.
For all they’ve achieved in the competition – that victory over West Coast crossed them off the list and meant the Giants had been winners at least once over every other side – their Achilles’ heel throughout has been an inability to beat the best on the road.
That is a weakness that a non-Victorian team simply cannot afford to have – if they want to win a flag then someday they are going to have to be able to get it done against the best opposition on foreign soil.
A groundbreaking win at Adelaide Oval would be a great way to start.
Will we see the best of Eddie Betts?
It feels weird to say about a guy who kicked 49 goals this year and was just named All Australian for the third year running – but Eddie hasn’t been himself lately.
He’s had a fine season, no doubt, but it hasn’t been at the same level that we’ve seen from him in the past, and his form has petered out a little as the year has gone on.
He kicked three or more goals in eight of his first 10 games (31 in total), but has only done so once in 11 games since (18 in total). Who is to say exactly why this has been the case – there could be a range of boring, logical explanations, but I prefer this one: he’s saving himself for finals.
I watched Betts tear North Melbourne a new one with half a dozen goals in the final at Adelaide Oval last year. It was beautiful and yet brutally soul-crushing at the same time. I’d really like to see him do it to someone else – and whether it’s tonight or further down the track, I reckon we’ll see it in September 2017.
(Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)
Prediction
This is the battle of two clubs each confronted by a serious issue, and the one that can overcome theirs best is the one that will get the job done.
Rory Sloane is crucial to everything Adelaide does and the standard tactic for stopping them this year has been to tag him to death. With him out of the team, GWS already have that job done for them – it gives them a huge opportunity in this one.
The Giants’ big worry is the travel factor. They’ve never consistently been able to score big wins on the road, so can they start now?
Here’s my thinking – the Giants have been getting ready for finals knowing that travel will be a factor for a decent while now.
Adelaide on the other hand must be somewhat surprised by Sloane’s absence. I mean, appendicitis, really? At this time of year, in this part of the country?
I smell an upset on the wind. I’m tipping the Giants to get the win here, but I don’t think it will derail Adelaide’s premiership hopes.
GWS Giants to win by 12 points.
When: 7:50pm AEST, Thursday 7 September
Where: Adelaide Oval
TV: Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: Adelaide $1.55, GWS $2.50
Head-to-head: Adelaide 7, GWS 1
Last five: Adelaide 4, GWS 1
In finals: Never previously met
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