As the 2022 trade period began, the Swans licked their wounds.
They’d just copped an 81 point belting by a slick group of surely-almost-retired players from Geelong. The trade period drags on, only lasting 9 days but for Swans supporters each morning rings with the same news. Wait, we aren’t getting anybody? Aaron Francis arrives, pick 6 in 2015 but recently unfavoured by Essendon.
The Swans have a habit of turning cast-offs and overlooked youths into superstars, but is that what they needed after looking almost completely uncompetitive in the Grand Final?
This is the same trade period that saw Brodie Grundy head to the Demons, Jack Bowes move to the premiers, and Collingwood, who now look an unstoppable juggernaut heading into the end of the season, pick up Tom Mitchell, Bobby Hill and Dan McStay.
The teams that featured at the end of September last year are all jostling at the apex of the AFL ladder come mid-July while the Swans are looking around them in lonely 15th place, with only the inexperienced Hawks, rejuvenating Kangaroos, and the unmentionable Eagles below them. What happened?
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Statistically, it is easy to look at where the Swans have fallen off this year. Last season their style of play was comparable to the Hawks during their famous ‘threepeat’ of 2013-15, with precise kicks around the ground finding uncontested marks and grinding the opposition down with their accuracy. In 2022 they rated 2nd overall for kicks and 3rd for marks. Compare that to 2023, where they rate 9th and a lowly 14th respectively.
Their gameplan has obviously changed over the summer, with a more run-and-gun approach being implemented down the centre of the ground to complement the young, speedy cohort who led them so well through last year’s finals. The key difference this season is while this tactic is resulting in inside 50’s, where they’re ranked 4th, it’s not translating to scores.
One part of this problem, with his hulking frame and ageing legs, is Buddy Franklin.
A living legend of the game, Franklin is beginning to have a negative effect on the Swans forward line. Where four years ago he would draw the two best defenders on the opposing team, mark the ball from 45 out and kick a curling left footer that would momentarily defy physics to slot through, he’s now increasingly unable to take contested marks (averaging 1.6 a game), and missing goals that Logan Macdonald or Joel Amartey would be kicking.
It’s no help that as a commanding presence, both physically and mentally, the young Bloods still see him as the man they have to kick to.
Not all of this has been down to choice though. Buddy has had to play more early season games than John Longmire may have liked with the injuries to Macdonald and Amartey. His final year in the AFL was always going to be managed, it just hasn’t been on the Swans terms.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
But Buddy’s not the biggest issue. The Swans are lacking big bodies in and around the stoppages and ruckmen Tom Hickey and Peter Ladhams aren’t tapping the ball wide enough to assist the likes of Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, who while fantastic players in their own right, aren’t the Josh Kennedy types who can break through packs with brute.
While ranked 10th for contested possessions, the Swans are losing it when the momentum swings the other way. Ranked dead last for intercept marks and 15th for defensive 1v1’s, it’s the backline that are suffering the most.
Opposition kicks are flying through from stoppages and the defensive line have little to no say in the matter. You only have to look at the metric that says the Swans have the third most tackles in 2023. High pressure, yes, but that just means they don’t have their hands on the ball enough.
Of course injuries have cruelled their season. Almost every senior player has had a stint on the sidelines and when it’s not a soft tissue injury or a torn hamstring, Toby Nankervis’ shoulder has an appointment with your head. This will happen to a team full of young bodies, and maybe this team just wasn’t physically ready yet?
After last year capitalising on a season when many teams underperformed, perhaps they’re showing us now where they’re really at.
The Swans need to remedy this quickly in the offseason. Finals are out of the question now and the competition are getting brutally good. Collingwood and Port Adelaide look to be on the verge of establishing dynastic teams, while Essendon, St Kilda, Adelaide and GWS are showing vast improvement.
And that is, of course, not to even mention Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane, who are straddling their open premiership window with their legs dangling.
Buddy will depart at the end of the season and while it’ll be a blow to him that he won’t win a premiership in the red and white, Sydney’s forward line will flourish with Macdonald, Amartey and Maclean as the focal points. Losing Jordan Dawson and George Hewett over the past few seasons, two big-bodied inside mids, have proven to be crucial outs. Replacements for those will be better late than never, and trade rumours around players such as Harry Himmelberg, Aaron Naughton and Tim English are positive, but Sydney need to look elsewhere too.
It’s not unfathomable to see the Swans pushing late into finals next year, provided they get the trade season just right. One benefit of a low table finish this year will be the early draft picks they earn, which need to be used in swaps for proven, tough ball winners.
Bulking out the existing core of the young group needs to be a priority too, players like Nick Blakey, Callum Mills, Errol Gulden and Corey Warner need to come back in March next year having undergone the Isaac Heeney treatment, ready to out-muscle opponents in the centre of the ground.
All is not lost! Commentators around the country seem to think that the Grand Final demolition of 2022 may well prove to be AFL’s last gasp in NSW. Teams rarely pick themselves up immediately after a drubbing like that, but the Swans have shown enough times over enough games this year that they’re not as far back as 15th place would suggest.
Now, if only they could kick straight…
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