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Inky's pattern recognition

Roar Rookie
27th April, 2008
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The Crusaders and Blues began the eleventh round on Friday with a pulsating match in Christchurch.

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The Blues on paper look like a team that would trouble anyone, and in the last couple of months it has sometimes been downright weird watching them steadily unravel in situations they should be mastering.

Against the competition leaders, however, they at least played some of their famous old brand of rugby.

Richie McCaw opened the try-scoring with a crowd-pleasing move down the right, with number eight Mose Tuiali’i stretching the Blues defence and fullback Leon MacDonald linking, looking inside him for the big flanker in support. This was going to be some game if the first try was anything to go by.

Wing Rudi Wulf and number eight Nick Williams scored tries for the Blues to keep the match close, and the visitors were denied two further tries by television replays.

Crusaders hooker Corey Flynn had a bizarre match. Two tries put him in credit in the final analysis, but a blatant obstruction in the first half on Blues wing David Smith followed by a yellow card in the second for a high tackle on the same player were black marks against an experienced player who should know better.

The tension getting to the host side a little is the only explanation that makes sense. Publicly they had talked up their opposition all week, and they’d genuinely not expected anything other than the Blues at their best, but it still seemed to rattle them.

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Controversy surrounded Flynn’s hooking replacement, too. A replay of Ti’i Paulo’s foot hitting the touchline was inadmissible as evidence and could not prevent a try being unfairly awarded along with a bonus point. The officials were feeling the pressure just as keenly as the players.

David Smith scored a late try to close the gap to 26-22 and at least reward the Blues with a close-loss bonus point of their own. This was perhaps a lucky escape for the Crusaders though, and just the latest in a series of painful losses for the Blues.

The other Friday game saw the Brumbies beat the Lions 28-21, after trailing 13-21 with not long remaining. The Brumbies’ slim playoff hopes are still alive, but this might just as easily have been a horrible embarrassment for the home side in Canberra, losing to the worst Super Rugby franchise in many years.

When we inevitably ditch the South Africans and let them carry out their threat of creating a joint African-European competition, the Lions will not be the proudest Super 14 chapter to be closed. If we replaced the South African unions with Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Argentina Town and Argentina Country, any memories of the Lions’ stodgy brand of rugby would not cause undue regret.

This was as close as they've come to entertaining rugby in quite a while.

Saturday saw four games in sequence, starting in Hamilton with the Chiefs hosting the Reds. Before heading overseas on an itinerary that takes them through Perth, Johannesburg and Durban, the Chiefs needed a big win to maintain the traction they’d already generated this month.

They hit the ground running with a Stephen Donald try, a catch-and-regather that is fast becoming Donald’s trademark. Next, wing sensation Lelia Masaga scored a couple to make their half-time lead intimidating. After galloping clear on the right wing for his first, put into space neatly out wide by centre Richard Kahui, Masaga then chased down a kick by Donald and grounded it within an inch of touch-in-goal.

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After the break the Reds chased down their lead and made the game close. Morgan Turinui and Digby Ioane, both poached from other Australian franchises, scored three tries between them and kept the result in the balance. But the Chiefs’ finest moment was to come, with the sort of try that only teams with serious momentum tend to score.

With the Reds looking to score again and really throw the cat among the pigeons, number eight Sione Lauaki intercepted outrageously on halfway and pinned his ears back. The crowd were instantly on their feet, roaring loud enough to be heard in Raglan.

The Reds fullback cut the giant down with five yards still to go, but Lauaki placed the ball and regained his feet legally. Picking up the ball again and now trampling the first tackler underfoot, a second tackler dived on him and dragged him down, but with colossal strength he twisted and thrust out an arm to score.

The Reds played a significant part in a fine spectacle, but the Chiefs have some fairly convincing mojo right now and carried the night. Their self confidence lets them cut loose instantaneously when opportunities arise. They could theoretically make a playoff berth safe before even arriving in Durban, which might be advisable considering their history of ultimate disappointment (and considering the Sharks’ history, some kind of perpetual karmic dispensation noticed by no one except yours truly).

Nothing this weekend made me happier than the Waratahs beating the Sharks 25-10 in Sydney. I’ve been waiting for the Sharks to slip up in this fashion.

When all the other teams were adjusting to the new laws, the Sharks didn’t bother. Why should they? The new laws didn’t change the amount of niggle possible, and didn’t increase punishments for jersey-pulling or all the other cunning little obstructions the Sharks build their game around. Amidst all the mayhem and confusion over the new laws, in fact, there was even more scope for their negative tactics to prosper.

Then the other teams finally started to exploit the positive opportunities allowed under the new charter, and the Sharks began to falter. The Waratahs are the second team to show them up in succession, and that being after a couple of very lucky previous escapes. The Sharks now move to Christchurch, where Robbie Deans and the Crusaders will be waiting, knowing exactly what to expect from their visitors.

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After midnight came the Hurricanes’ six-try 38-10 thrashing of the Cheetahs in Kimberley. This was, quite simply, magnificent, and a timely blow for New Zealand’s hopes.

It was no pushover. The contest was willing, in blazing high altitude heat on a rock-hard track. The Cheetahs aren’t as bad as their place on the table suggests, and they have been trying to give the ball width all season. Trouble is, it’s not second nature yet, the Free Staters are so new to the full-on-attack way of thinking that they can find themselves in situations they have very little control over… big forwards being just as potent a threat as backs is something they’re still surprised by.

Jason Eaton, Rodney So’oialo and Scott Waldrom all scored tries that left the Cheetahs with hands on hips looking at each other. The score was mounting via five-pointers, with loose forwards dotting down untouched, and the Cheetahs looked completely nonplussed. Backs Ma’a Nonu, Zack Guilford and Cory Jane, meanwhile, perplexed them in ways they looked far more comfortable with.

The beefy Africans seem out of place in the new environment. For their loyal supporters, it must be quite painful, like watching 50 Cent trying to act.

The weekend finished with the expected bummer, the Stormers beating the Highlanders 26-16 in Cape Town. The Highlanders were their own worst enemies again, losing men to the sin bin while trailing too many points already, then shipping more points playing catch-up.

The Bulls and Force had byes.

I believe 39 competition points will be the minimum required for a semifinal place this year, and with three rounds remaining the Blues, Brumbies and Force are already in the position of needing other teams to finish very badly for them to have any hope.

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My focus will be on whether or not the Hurricanes and Chiefs can both make the top four alongside the Crusaders. The Stormers and Waratahs look most likely to prevent there being three New Zealand teams in the semifinals.

The Sharks are in trouble. They will revert to type as usual in May. They’re pretty good rugby players when they concentrate on the game, but their circuitry isn’t geared for doing that in pressure situations. In pressure situations they will start fights and get binned, and when they drop out of the top four they won’t get back in.

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